Predictions for the next two years?

[Diceman]

So let's get started with the next infestation of foot-in-mouth disease. What are all your predictions for the next two years. For the sake of argument, I'll suggest that we assume a 50-50 split in the senate, until news showing otherwise appears. Let's try to keep the predictions to a reasonable specificity; "Dems will <save/destroy> us" or "Republicans will be <vindicated/shown to be villains>" aren't really predictions. Let's also see if we can keep it civil. heh heh.

I'll get this ball rolling.
Prediction 1: The 110th will be a do-nothing congress that really gets down to the business of doing nothing. It'll make the 109th look downright productive. Going on the 50-50 assumption, with rigid party discipline, the Speaker of the Senate will become a much more important vote. A good number of contentious issues passed by Congress will be blocked by the Senate.
Prediction 2: President Bush will put some real mileage on what has been his Sunday-driver-only veto power; the bulk of the measures that do get past the Senate will be vetoed. It should be noted that a good number of these measures will likely have been designed to be vetoed, in order to paint the President into a corner.
Prediction 3: Congress will only be mildly passing interested in passing legislation anyway. The real game in town is going to be congressional investigations. We should all expect to start having flashbacks as every thought, utterance and action since 2000, beginning with the lead-up to 9/11 is brought out and dusted off. That there was already a bi-partisan investigation in 9/11 won't make a difference. People who feel that discussions of water-boarding aid the enemy should consider the merits of living underground, because the caliber of dirty laundry about to be aired will almost certainly invite a nuclear strike.
Prediction 4: For their part, Republicans will step up their own rhetoric about Democratic incompetence/Cut-and-Runningness/Tax-and-Spendfulness/Aiding-the-Enemy-ability. Every failure, perceived or real, will be laid at the feet of the Democrats. The Dems will be vilifying the Republicans as well - the difference is that the Republicans will do this mainly via a media blitz, while the Dems will mainly use their congressional investigations.

Everything from here on in is campaigning for 2008, with a real sense of urgency felt by Dems(Republicans) to paint the Republicans(Dems) as the the greatest <insert insult here> since <insert analogue here>.

Prediction 5: Expect the Daily Show and the Colbert Report to remain funny for the foreseeable future.

So, those are my predictions. Toss in any of your own.

[Buck Fush]

FYI, You can't have a 50/50 split because Cheney becomes the tie breaker which means it's still Republican controled.

[Beatnik]

I definitely agree with Predictions 4 and 5.

I'm also predicting more measures of (however politically motivated, but nonetheless valid) accountability in the form of multiple hearings in the House. Not sure what that will look like, but there is definitely going to be some actual Congressional oversight exercised now over the Executive.

[xTYBALTx]

I have been awaiting a do-nothing Congress for years, and agree with your prediction that this one will get very little done.

As Buck pointed out, you can't have a 50-50 split in the Senate. We should operate on the assumption that it'll be a 51-50 in favor of the Dems, as the Dem in Virginia has a 7,000 vote (read: big enough) margin on his Republican opponent.

[Steeler]

Pelosi and the rest of the Democratic leadership will take a pass on Iraq policy for the first few months. They will instead focus on Katrina relief, tax reform, and opening investigations on a host of scandals - including Foley, Abramoff, some Iraqi reconstruction corruption, and Cheney's energy deals.

With the wolves at the door, the Republican machine will be shocked into an ideological defensive circle. Watch for louder and more vitriolic rhetoric from the usual suspects. Democrats will be openly and universally vilified as traitors.

Robert Novak will return to his lair to sup upon the flesh of innocents, and there he shall brood.

Joe Lieberman will decry the messy, partisan, uncivil nature of the new Democratic leadership and appear on multiple cable opinion programs to say so repeatedly. He will ask fellow Democrats to just "put the last 12 years of humiliating partisan abuse behind us."

The Democrats will successfully pass a bill. The President will veto it.

The Democrats and Republicans will successfully pass a bipartisan pro-puppies bill. The President will sign it, but attach a signing statement affirming his right to incarcerate and torture puppies when he deems it necessary for national security.

Congress will subpoena the Presdient to testify on either 9/11 or Iraq. He will fail to comply, forcing a Constitutional crisis between the executive and legislative branches. Impeachment talk will begin in earnest.

The issue of whether or not we stay in Iraq will be decided for us by President Moqtada al-Sadr's revolutionary army. This will be widely recognized as the Democrat's fault.

[Diceman]

Originally Posted by Steeler

Impeachment talk will begin in earnest.

Does impeachment require a simple majority or a super-majority?

If it's a simple majority, then impeachment chatter will likely fail, because the Democrats won't be able to maintain a unified front on the matter.

If it's a super-majority, then impeachment chatter will definately fail, because the Republicans will never go for it.

[xTYBALTx]

Majority to impeach, super majority to convict, right?

[Santa]

Originally Posted by xTYBALTx

Majority to impeach, super majority to convict, right?

From wikipedia:

The impeachment procedure is in two steps. The House of Representatives must first pass "articles of impeachment" by a simple majority. (All fifty state legislatures as well as the District of Columbia city council may also pass articles of impeachment against their own executives). The articles of impeachment constitute the formal allegations. Upon their passage, the defendant has been "impeached."

Next, the Senate tries the accused. In the case of the impeachment of a President, the Chief Justice of the United States presides over the proceedings. Otherwise, the Vice President, in his capacity as President of the Senate, or the President pro tempore of the Senate presides. This may include the impeachment of the Vice President him- or herself, although legal theories suggest that allowing a person to be the judge in the case where she or he was the defendant wouldn't be permitted. If the Vice President did not preside over an impeachment, the duties would fall to the President Pro Tempore.

In order to convict the accused, a two-thirds majority of the senators present is required. Conviction automatically removes the defendant from office. Following conviction, the Senate may vote to further punish the individual by barring them from holding future federal office (either elected or appointed). Despite a conviction by the Senate, the defendant remains liable to criminal prosecution. It is possible to impeach someone even after the accused has vacated their office in order to disqualify the person from future office or from certain emoluments of their prior office (such as a pension.) If a two-thirds majority of the senators present does not vote "Guilty" on one or more of the charges, the defendant is acquitted and no punishment is imposed.

[Private Book]

I dont know if this is a prediction but it says a lot that I found this cross linked from the Democratic Underground. A very very democratic party site. This is what they are saying today. I guess I would put this as my hopeful prediction.

The Witch (1000+ posts) Wed Nov-08-06 10:06 AM
Original message
Dear dismayed conservatives:
Dear dismayed conservatives:

I hereby make these promises to you.
We will protect your lives and livelihoods.
We will listen to and respect your beliefs.
We will never try to force you to change your religion, sexual orientation, or first language.
We will do our best to reduce the number of abortions in our country.
We will have no tolerance for corruption and cronyism, even in our own party.

ESPECIALLY in our own party.

We will never tell you that you are unpatriotic.
We will never tell you that your opinion doesn't count.
We will never waste your lives for power.
We will hold our leaders to a high ethical standard and when they succumb to lust for power, WE WILL HOLD THEM ACCOUNTABLE.
If we forget this, please, please, please, remind us.

We need you to do this. You are America as much as we are.
Let's go.

[Switchcraft]

Did the person who posted that on DU get banned? I got banned from there for arguing with someone who cheered for the deaths of US soldiers in Iraq, saying that no true Democrat should want anything other than total defeat of US military forces under Republican control.


Edit: I do believe that that site is not as representatively Democrat as your post seemed to imply, which is why I never quote posts from there. But if you think it IS representative, let us know, that would change a lot of the debates in here dramatically.

[BloodMoney]

One of my future predictions/truths - More anti-violence video game laws will be passed, and then immediately condemned as unconstitutional. Jack Thompson will sue and threaten to sue more people and use tragic occasions to further his own needs for money and attention. Video games will continue to be blamed for Columbine copycat attempts.

[Trooper]

Impeachment give me break. Demos dont have enough of their own party to get a majority let alone a majority of the republicans to do it. Dems have no better of an idea of what to do in Iraq then the republicans do. O they will pull troops out, not a chance, especially with rumsfeild quiting. We will be in Iraq until there "democracy" tells us to get out pure and simple.

The democrats will ride this victory for 4 months until they relize they actually have to do work, and when they do try to "fix things" it will be time to vote for a new president. History always repeats itself.

[thebleakaffinity]

You guys are missing the first part of Steeler's paragraph there. Right now, it's unlikely that impeachment will occur, but there are certain plausible events that could lead to its consideration.

[Beatnik]

Originally Posted by Private Book

I dont know if this is a prediction but it says a lot that I found this cross linked from the Democratic Underground. A very very democratic party site. This is what they are saying today. I guess I would put this as my hopeful prediction.

I saw Nancy Pelosi on CNN's The Situation Room (what kind of name is that for a news program, by the way?) tonight and what you quoted was entirely consistent with what she said there.

Whether or not that's realistic or rhetoric is beyond me, but it is comforting rhetoric to hear, and I'll be one of the ones watching closely to see if they don't live up to those standards...especially the parts about corruption, cronyism, and accountability. Democrats are far from perfect, and they've lost a lot of people who used to be loyalists over the past 6 years (myself included). They didn't win this election nearly as much as the republicans lost it, so what they choose to do with their new power controlling the 1st branch of government will be very telling.

[Diceman]

So now the Dems have apparently taken majorities in both houses...sorta. In the Senate, there are two independents, but they are expected to side with the Democrats on most issues.

At any rate, this somewhat changes my previous predictions, because they mainly rotated on Republican control of the Senate, as both Buck and Tybalt pointed out.

Let's review these predictions then.

Prediction 1: With Democratic control of both houses, I would find it very believable that the 110th Congress will not be such a do-nothing Congress after all. Since the Dems are now free to pass anything which doesn't cause severe internal party discord, I can see a fair amount of legislation being passed merrily along it's way to the President. I believe that bills both tactical (designed to force the President to take an uncomfortable stand on an issue) and idealogical (designed to implement a Democratic agenda) will be passed by this Congress.
Prediction 2: Bush will not use his veto power with the gusto suggested in my first post. His use of the veto will be tempered, in a "I'm doing you a favour by not vetoing this bill" sort of way; the logic being that if he makes nice, Dems will have fewer quarrels with him. Given the impressive array of political weaponry at their disposal, it will behoove Bush and his legacy to let sleeping dogs lie. Pelosi and Reid, on their part, will not be foolish enough to think that a sitting President can be so easily dispatched without causing serious collateral damage to their own interests, directly or otherwise. All that said however, there will be a few high-profile vetos and lots of sabre-rattling soon, as the President sends the message that he commands his own formidable strengths, and that it will be better for everybody if they all play nice. The President will continue with the signing statements as he has to date.
Prediction 3: Congress will be much more interested in passing legislation than previously assumed, of both the tactical and idealogical flavours. That said, congressional hearings are still the top priority. Besides the congressional hearings, there will now be senate hearings on a good number of the same matters. The Republicans are going to be hammered hard in these and Republican politicians will distance themselves in increasing numbers from President Bush.
Prediction 4: The Republicans will have to hit the talk-show circuit hard, in an effort to direct attention away from the congressional and senatorial hearings. This will be exceptionally difficult to do, because the Dems will, for the large part, be controlling the frame of reference for the discussion. The White House will weigh in frequently with attempts to re-frame the issues under review in both Houses. Bill O'Reilly will continue to offer his own unique brand of cognitive dissonance.
Prediction 5: Donald Rumsfeld will be raked over the coals (by both Democrats and Republicans) for his prosecution of the Iraq War, due in large part to the fact that he is now a "safe" target - criticizing Rumsfeld will no longer be seen as criticizing the White House - and it allows Republican politicians seeking re-election to distance themselves from an unpopular war by framing themselves as the principled renegade who spoke truth to power. The Project for a New American Century is dead in the water.

I'll close by noting that my underlying view hasn't changed: everything from here on in is campaigning for 2008. But, in light of Democratic control of both houses, the means to that end changes in some significant ways.