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A return to pessimism! North Korea Threatens Nuclear Response.

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Now... back to the basics. In this blog I want to talk to you guys about Korea a small peninsula hanging off mainland Asia west of Japan.

Originally conquered by Imperial Japan (in 1910) and viciously extorted under their rule was made independent by the Soviet Union and the USA dividing the surrender at the 38th parallel between them taking north and south respectively. Korea was unified until 1948 and was divided similarly by into two states with ideological sympathies similar to which both the north and South Korean occupying forces surrendered to. (However this is merely observation and not of any relevance)

The north became a communist state and is now known as DPRK, and the south merely ROK or Republic of Korea. They engaged in a proxy war soon afterward lasting from the 25th of June 1950. (This war has not actually ended, pedants.)

Recently the sinking of the Cheonan has plunged the world into a cold war between the two Koreas. (also making for some pretty edgy advertising realism for the game Homefront, which is so totally unrealistic it is silly, however)

The Cheonan a Pohang class ROK Navy Corvette, was sunk by a North Korean torpedo on the 26th of March this year. This initiated a swift revival of the cold war of words between the two nations, bolstered by the new Korean Presidents hard-line attitude on North Korea and the termination of the previous president Roh Moo-hyun's "sunshine policy".

The prow section of the Cheonan exhumed from the water after it was sunk and broke in two.

Picture Credit Telegraph.co.uk

Among North koreas many accusations and non-sensical propaganda it emerged on their state television that DPRK Defence officials promised a "retaliators sacred [nuclear] war" on the south.

Clearly there is either a major power struggle in North Korea or someone in the government has truly lost their mind. In my opinion two things could happen. This is both blatant brinkmanship and posturing by North Korea to assert its agenda to the wider world. Or maybe this is actually a serious threat to the armed forces of the USA and the ROK to stop the war-games planned there. These joint operations appear to be an attempt to warn North Korea that imminent retaliation would follow by both the ROK and the USA if any further military action is taken by North Korea. Also the BBC has reported that Japanese observers have been sent over as a token of Japans support for the almost ten thousand American service people taking part.

The USS George Washington the 6th Nimitz Class Supercarrier taking part in the excercises.

My opinion is that North Korea faces imminent Nuclear Immolation if that happens, but I think sooner rather than later North Korea will collapse in on itself meaning it will be up to South Korea to deal with humanitarian crisis and refugees.

What do you think of the current events and why?

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  1. Niquita's Avatar
    By the way for those of you who may think im basically just spitting out journalism you may have seen elsewhere I put it up here because I want to debate and tak wth you guys about the goings on in our world.
  2. Cheburash's Avatar
    a) I'm pretty sure you meant exploited, not extorted.

    b) There won't be a nuclear immolation, annihilation, or anything of the sort. I predict extensive sanctions (already happening, in fact), and possibly a short-lived conventional conflict between North and South, though even that is unlikely. Dear Leader is trying to secure his succession, which means stirring up animosity toward external threats (Imperialist USA is too far removed, old enemy South Korea is a far better target). Alternatively, it could actually be a play by one of the other powers, to take control of the country when Dear Leader finally succumbs. It very much depends on how his health is at the moment, something we just don't know.

    c) Why won't it come to a nuclear conflict? First of all because North Korea has at least some form of nuclear capability. Given the size of the peninsula, they wouldn't even need to launch a nuclear-armed missile at Seoul. They'd just need to detonate one in the demilitarized zone to contaminate hundreds of square kilometres for decades to come. A bit of help from wind, and South Korea will be very unhappy indeed. But even if North Korea had no nuclear capabilities, there is China, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, with veto power, and a rising military and economic superpower. And, lest we forget, quite friendly with North Korea. This entire situation is going to be a case of two very large bull elephants squaring off against each other, and then deciding they were too evenly matched for the fight to be worth it.

    The above, incidentally, is why I believe North Korea isn't likely to attack anyone with conventional forces, either. NK generals aren't stupid; they know they have little hope against the US, and aren't absolutely sure China would intervene to help out an obvious aggressor. But as long as there is at least some measure of deniability, like the torpedo attack, they can continue to rely on Chinese support, which is going to keep the rest of the world at bay.
  3. Niquita's Avatar
    Agreed Cheburash you are right. I agree with the statement that this is probably just Kim Jong-il securing a succession and the plan to detonate in the DMZ is plausable. Also the deniable operations is also a sound hypothesis / reality.

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