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Old 09-26-2005, 02:41 PM   #16 (permalink)
 
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Re: every10minutes

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Originally Posted by perry
Need a stats whiz to figure out what your best odds are.. 189 in say 1000... or 1 in 1000 189 times.. or 5 in 1000 35 times.. Are they the same? Shrug, I think I missed that day in stats class.
Your best bet is to get as many in a single drawing at a time that will likely have few entries. As an example, if there are say 1000 unique entries at every drawing, and you have 100 caps, and put in 5 caps per drawing, your chances of wining any given drawing are 5/1000, or .5%
Because each drawing is independant and unique, it doesn't matter what the results of the previous drawings were. Your overall chance of winning will be .5 of 1%, your chance of winning two drawings would be .25 of 1%, and so on down the line. Now, if you put all caps in one drawing, you get 100/1000, or 10%. Your overall chance of winning is 10%.
Now say the drawing at 3:40AMEST only has 400 unique entries, and you have 100 caps. Now your chances are 100/400 = 25%. Granted, I don't think your odds are going to be anywhere near that good, but there is a chance that early on at early hours the entries will be significantly less. As you approach the end of the contest, the overall number of entries will increase, as people saving all of their caps for one giant entry late in the game will be flooding the entries.

If you can select any drawing at any point in the day, the best time to do it would be between 2 and 3pm EST. Reasoning? Because the late night hours will be flooded with people like yourselves that think that nobody makes entries at night, whereas the daytime entries will likely be people going "I have so many caps and want to enter the next available contest" 2-3PMEST is the time of day where the least amount of people have access to computers (school/work) for that kind of entry. But that's just my personal opinion
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Old 09-26-2005, 06:30 PM   #17 (permalink)


 
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Re: every10minutes

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spyder
If you can select any drawing at any point in the day, the best time to do it would be between 2 and 3pm EST. Reasoning? Because the late night hours will be flooded with people like yourselves that think that nobody makes entries at night, whereas the daytime entries will likely be people going "I have so many caps and want to enter the next available contest" 2-3PMEST is the time of day where the least amount of people have access to computers (school/work) for that kind of entry. But that's just my personal opinion
Yep, if you can choose any time, you've got to use a bit of reverse phsychology... When does everyone else think is the best time to submit? Late night/early morning? Then you should do it during the day...

I still say as soon as possible, due to the possibility of other cap hoarders saving 'em up for the last few drawings...
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Old 09-26-2005, 08:41 PM   #18 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Michigan
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Re: every10minutes

wow thats alot of posts, thanks for the input you guys. Jus a littlemore info on it. First of all its been going on for two months and yes it is well know. the is a rare chance you will find a slot under 900 entries at any given time(24/7 for 9 weeks). Hell believ it or not i have seen one with 23885 entries for just one ten minute period. Now i got all these caps because i was at a baseball game and all they sold were pepsi products with these caps.

Anyone looking for these i would like to help you out by says it is an pepsi product with an ORANGE cap.

Now i already have all of my codes typed in so when ever i say the word i can put in all into one time period. I can chose any time period with 3 days in advance but i think it would be better to do so at last minute.
As for time periods you have to remeber that the california side is up at 12:00 my time here in michigan. I think a 3 hour difference. So i also agree with the fact that i should put it in at an early time or a middle of he day time. I was also thinking of maybe splitting it into two groups, maybe a 100 chance and an 89 chance.
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