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Discussion: Natural Selection / Natural Selection - General Discussion - Balance Command - It's my opinion that only using W:L ratio ignores a lot of factors and incorporates
  1. #16

    blu.knight's Avatar

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    Re: Balance Command

    It's my opinion that only using W:L ratio ignores a lot of factors and incorporates a lot of other factors which are not really good to focus on.

    This has been beat to death though.

    The best solution is actually incredibley complex and would not be feasible to implement. The simple solution is simple, and while not providing the best results, it provides "good enough" results.

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  3. #17


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    Re: Balance Command

    I'm wondering if taking into account W:L for a player on marines and aliens matters?

    IE if someone wins 90% on aliens and 10% on marine they have .5 ratio, assuming an even number of games on each side. Thus, undervalued when placed on aliens, and over valued when placed on marine.

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  5. #18

    blu.knight's Avatar

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    Re: Balance Command

    Quote Originally Posted by thane View Post
    I'm wondering if taking into account W:L for a player on marines and aliens matters?

    IE if someone wins 90% on aliens and 10% on marine they have .5 ratio, assuming an even number of games on each side. Thus, undervalued when placed on aliens, and over valued when placed on marine.
    The theory to this situation is the same with any situation...

    It should balance itself out. Yes, it might value them high... but if it does so and puts them on the marine side, that team will be weaker and they will lose... which will bring that ratio down making it more accurate.

    --
    Quote Originally Posted by blu.knight View Post
    The best solution is actually incredibley complex and would not be feasible to implement.
    The absolute best system would be a system that managed to do the following:

    - Track who is normally on one team when they win. This would be used to try to determine who works well together, and who just has enough skill that their teammates do not really matter. (I know with me there are certain people who, when we are on the same team, tend to win much more often.)
    - ALIEN: Track each lifeform's frequency and skill level (skill level might include damage dealt and the average lifespan of your lifeform). This would be to see what lifeforms/roles the person seems to prefer, and what they are good at.
    - MARINE: Track accuracy, track how often they are solo... Track K ratio
    - MARINE: Track who often com's.
    - Track who is often picked first in Captains games. This adds a "human computation" element to it... And would give an added weight to those that we know are valuable teammates... Though the rest of this should have been an indication of that already. This also would account for things like how likely someone is to sacrafice for the "greater good". Those that are big team players tend to be picked earlier... but it's very difficult to try to determine who these people are just by code.

    And then, when balancing it would...

    - Try to make sure there is a good fade on the alien side
    - Try to make sure there is a com on the marine side
    - Try to make sure there are some people who work well together on both sides
    - Try to ensure even skill distribution. Give any extra skill to the marine side. (one will be commanding, so their skill in the field does not matter)

    --

    That was amusing to type up.
    I would love to make a system to try to keep track of those that work well toegether and everything. I think it could be really interesting, part of that whole "social mapping" idea. Represented graphically people like Golem would have tons of connections but none would be very strong. People like me would have less connections, but ones to people like Radix would be stronger.

    It would just be very interesting to see.

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  7. #19

    micr0c0sm's Avatar

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    Re: Balance Command

    Psychostats tracks kills per map to whom by what weapon and deaths per map to whom by what weapon.

    example: http://www.richnet.tv/stats/

    The parsing would be easy but a bit intensive.

    It would not be as simple as now, but would be more accurate. <-- this would be skill based, not teamwork based but in the end should work better.

    However, the same problems show themselves especially with late-joins.

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  9. #20

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    Re: Balance Command

    Quote Originally Posted by blu.knight View Post
    The theory to this situation is the same with any situation...

    It should balance itself out. Yes, it might value them high... but if it does so and puts them on the marine side, that team will be weaker and they will lose... which will bring that ratio down making it more accurate.

    --

    The absolute best system would be a system that managed to do the following:

    - Track who is normally on one team when they win. This would be used to try to determine who works well together, and who just has enough skill that their teammates do not really matter. (I know with me there are certain people who, when we are on the same team, tend to win much more often.)
    - ALIEN: Track each lifeform's frequency and skill level (skill level might include damage dealt and the average lifespan of your lifeform). This would be to see what lifeforms/roles the person seems to prefer, and what they are good at.
    - MARINE: Track accuracy, track how often they are solo... Track K ratio
    - MARINE: Track who often com's.
    - Track who is often picked first in Captains games. This adds a "human computation" element to it... And would give an added weight to those that we know are valuable teammates... Though the rest of this should have been an indication of that already. This also would account for things like how likely someone is to sacrafice for the "greater good". Those that are big team players tend to be picked earlier... but it's very difficult to try to determine who these people are just by code.

    And then, when balancing it would...

    - Try to make sure there is a good fade on the alien side
    - Try to make sure there is a com on the marine side
    - Try to make sure there are some people who work well together on both sides
    - Try to ensure even skill distribution. Give any extra skill to the marine side. (one will be commanding, so their skill in the field does not matter)

    --

    That was amusing to type up.
    I would love to make a system to try to keep track of those that work well toegether and everything. I think it could be really interesting, part of that whole "social mapping" idea. Represented graphically people like Golem would have tons of connections but none would be very strong. People like me would have less connections, but ones to people like Radix would be stronger.

    It would just be very interesting to see.
    . . . and then there would be no server resources left to play with! reg > overly meticulous balance. The reason why the simplest solution is usually best is because making a better solution is so incredibly complicated it isn't worth it.

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  11. #21


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    Re: Balance Command

    Quote Originally Posted by blu.knight View Post
    The theory to this situation is the same with any situation...

    It should balance itself out. Yes, it might value them high... but if it does so and puts them on the marine side, that team will be weaker and they will lose... which will bring that ratio down making it more accurate.

    --

    The absolute best system would be a system that managed to do the following:

    - Track who is normally on one team when they win. This would be used to try to determine who works well together, and who just has enough skill that their teammates do not really matter. (I know with me there are certain people who, when we are on the same team, tend to win much more often.)
    - ALIEN: Track each lifeform's frequency and skill level (skill level might include damage dealt and the average lifespan of your lifeform). This would be to see what lifeforms/roles the person seems to prefer, and what they are good at.
    - MARINE: Track accuracy, track how often they are solo... Track K ratio
    - MARINE: Track who often com's.
    - Track who is often picked first in Captains games. This adds a "human computation" element to it... And would give an added weight to those that we know are valuable teammates... Though the rest of this should have been an indication of that already. This also would account for things like how likely someone is to sacrafice for the "greater good". Those that are big team players tend to be picked earlier... but it's very difficult to try to determine who these people are just by code.

    And then, when balancing it would...

    - Try to make sure there is a good fade on the alien side
    - Try to make sure there is a com on the marine side
    - Try to make sure there are some people who work well together on both sides
    - Try to ensure even skill distribution. Give any extra skill to the marine side. (one will be commanding, so their skill in the field does not matter)

    --

    That was amusing to type up.
    I would love to make a system to try to keep track of those that work well toegether and everything. I think it could be really interesting, part of that whole "social mapping" idea. Represented graphically people like Golem would have tons of connections but none would be very strong. People like me would have less connections, but ones to people like Radix would be stronger.

    It would just be very interesting to see.
    I wouldn't mind seeing someone attempt this, but I doubt the results will be very good. This kind of piecemeal approach gets incredibly complicated, meaning it's very easy to leave something out or include something redundant. In addition, figuring out the weights for each factor is virtually impossible without some sort of machine learning algorithm (which I don't believe we have the data for). Also,keep in mind that explicitly considering who might comm or lifeform will actually make the balance worse when that person doesn't comm/lifeform, and forcing them to do so isn't really an option. There are ways around this, but it involves having people type their preferred role for that game while still in the readyroom, before the command is executed. If that were done, in theory this could be incorporated into the current algorithm after we collected data for a few months.

    Thane does present a good point, which is that if a player is 0.9 on marines and 0.1 on aliens, they will stay at 0.5, and this will situtation will not improve itself unless that player gets better at aliens. This is a problem we knew would be present from the beginning, and is at the top of my wish list for things to be worked on if someone with access to the server had time to test it. Unfortunately, even if we could work on it, there is no simple solution. The main problem that we run into is that as soon as you break someone's W/L into these two parts, it becomes difficult to determine the order of player assignment without repeatedly assigning players to the same team (people tend to get assigned to whichever side makes them closer to 0.5). Given how many complaints we've had about that when it's not actually happening, I'd hate to see the reaction if it were.

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  13. #22

    1Stop|Beowulf's Avatar

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    Re: Balance Command

    have it record which team they were on last and preferentially assign them to the opposite team. If it doesn't work, it probably will the next game. although I guess if no one left or came it would probably end up in just alternating teams every game.

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  15. #23

    blu.knight's Avatar

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    Re: Balance Command

    Quote Originally Posted by Agamemnon View Post
    I wouldn't mind seeing someone attempt this, but I doubt the results will be very good. This kind of piecemeal approach gets incredibly complicated, meaning it's very easy to leave something out or include something redundant. In addition, figuring out the weights for each factor is virtually impossible without some sort of machine learning algorithm (which I don't believe we have the data for). Also,keep in mind that explicitly considering who might comm or lifeform will actually make the balance worse when that person doesn't comm/lifeform, and forcing them to do so isn't really an option. There are ways around this, but it involves having people type their preferred role for that game while still in the readyroom, before the command is executed. If that were done, in theory this could be incorporated into the current algorithm after we collected data for a few months.
    It would defintiely be incredibley complicated, as you say.

    Considering a person's normal role, as you say, can make the balance worse... I think from the marine side it is more important because there needs to be at least one person who is a "frequent commander".

    The idea of such an intelligent balancing system really interests me. It would be hell to implement, and severely complicated, but it would be amazing to see from a software engineer's perspective.

    -

    I might get back into writing plugins to do just the portion that would keep track of who you work well with. I had this idea a long while ago..
    It would be fun to be able to map out our community like that.

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  17. #24

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    Re: Balance Command

    Quote Originally Posted by blu.knight View Post
    It would defintiely be incredibley complicated, as you say.

    Considering a person's normal role, as you say, can make the balance worse... I think from the marine side it is more important because there needs to be at least one person who is a "frequent commander".

    The idea of such an intelligent balancing system really interests me. It would be hell to implement, and severely complicated, but it would be amazing to see from a software engineer's perspective.

    -

    I might get back into writing plugins to do just the portion that would keep track of who you work well with. I had this idea a long while ago..
    It would be fun to be able to map out our community like that.
    It be interesting, but at this point, you are starting to move to a system that looks more like an AI then anything else. Works well with player x is not something that can be easily expressed in stats, and needs a human touch, as cases were they work well together can not be completely preplanned.





    Current game name : |TG| Lost the Phantom Thief

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  19. #25

    blu.knight's Avatar

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    Re: Balance Command

    I really believe that a visual map of the win loss ratio you have when other players are on your team would show exactly that.

    There are some factors that aren't considered, like those of lower skill will have lower ratios... though these people should still have the stronger ones going to people they work well with.

    This is similar to how their have been irc bots to keep track of how many times people say each other's names. It then draws a map to show the social connections.
    I think that my idea is actually far more accurate than how that irc bot worked.

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  21. #26

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    Re: Balance Command

    Easily done (easily! ha!) with a neural net.
    Former TGNS admin until WoW blinded me with flashy lights.

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  23. #27


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    Re: Balance Command

    Quote Originally Posted by Stupid View Post
    Easily done (easily! ha!) with a neural net.
    Hrmm, which part? If there's something we actually need a neural network for, I'd be happy to have a use for this otherwise worthless degree...

    If you're talking about a new algorithm actually using all these different types of data, be aware that 90% of this problem would be in determing which types of data to use and how to collect it, the neural network part itself would be fairly trivial. Though determining the error could be tricky, I think there's a reasonably simple interpretation if we just take a player's win % over say 1 month on games where the algorithm was executed, then consider the difference from 0.5 to be the error for when the network is run on that player's data. This type of batch updating will probably overshoot, so we may need a decaying learning rate, but aside from that it should work.

    If you mean turning blu's player to player connection idea into an NN, we'd need a separate input for each player, but if we let it run for a year or two the results could be pretty awesome, if we have an input for 'unknown player' that we just copy its weights for each new player.

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  25. #28

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    Re: Balance Command

    Quote Originally Posted by Agamemnon View Post
    If you mean turning blu's player to player connection idea into an NN, we'd need a separate input for each player, but if we let it run for a year or two the results could be pretty awesome, if we have an input for 'unknown player' that we just copy its weights for each new player.
    That. It's a perfect fit for a NN.
    Former TGNS admin until WoW blinded me with flashy lights.

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  27. #29


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    Re: Balance Command

    Quote Originally Posted by Stupid View Post
    That. It's a perfect fit for a NN.
    Except that to use it to assign teams, you'd have to actually try every possible assignment, of which there are 16!/(8!8!) = 12870. Alternatively, we could do say 100 random assignments, and just take whichever of those happened to be best. There are some tricky things you could try with running back-propagation to actually change some inputs rather than weights, but I've never seen anyone actually try that, so it might fail miserably.

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  29. #30

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    Re: Balance Command

    No no no. Don't use it for assigning / balancing teams - just lay out the net to see who has the strongest connections. Just a thing that would be interesting to see if some players improve each others' performance.
    Former TGNS admin until WoW blinded me with flashy lights.

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