Kerostasis

On the republican side, Huckabee, Romney, and McCain have each won one state so far, and the media is talking about how Romney is just about out of it because he's got two second place finishes. What the hell? How does that work?

The Republican primary is so wide open right now that anyone could come back and take the thing -- even Ron Paul! Ok, probably not Ron Paul, but he did get more votes than Thompson in NH, so who knows?

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Bc2ID

The simple answer is that if the politician is not winning primaries then people will not throw their money behind a non-viable politician. It is more about money, support, and donations the further you go into the campaign.

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Kerostasis

I think you're missing something. The only ones calling Romney unviable are the media. He's actually got more votes than any other republican candidate so far!

After 5 minutes of research, heres the current Republican standings:

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AMosely

I am going insane witnessing how much the media is spinning this election - they are really going off on it. Romney is of course completely viable - in fact all the candidates still are, but it's getting pretty clear who the top three are for each major party. Chuckabee and Edwards are still in this.

Don't pay attention to media analysis. Watch CSPAN, read things from the candidate's websites, read blogs if you have to - just stay away from media coverage of this election.

luna

Not sure if you guys saw this, but I think it adds to the story-

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2...4109322&page=1

The woman who asked the question that made Hillary get all emotional ended up voting for Obama.

Am I the only one who saw Hillary's little display as totally fake? And really, if it was sincere, is that what she's going to do if she is the President and finds out Ahmadinejad or whoever doesn't like her? Can you imagine her curling up in a ball and crying in the shower after a row with Congress?

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Resurgent's New Motivational Motto:
"Now train harder! Live inside your character! If it dies, YOU DIE! Focus!"

Jesus had a soulstone.

USN_Squid

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Bc2ID

I guess we will see after S.C and Michigan, especially Michigan. Let's see if he can carry his Daddy's old state, I doubt it. By being viable, I did not mean a viable running canidate. The people with money will not throw it away on people who cannot win primaries. Yes, I know he won Wyoming, but come on it was Wyoming! Like I said wait and see...in a few more weeks we will see who has dropped out.

Romney is a chameleon, he changes his persona to fix the market. Watch as he transforms back into the CEO and drops the "canidate of change". This hurts his standings and he is not doing himself any justice. He is a very intelligent man and he should just stick to what he knows best.

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Gambit7

I just learned of this today myself. I actually spent a good chunk of last evening trying to find some dirt on this woman who asked the question (campaign contributions, anything). I found nothing. She seems like a simple photo-journalist asking a question. Nevertheless, she was connected to Washington fairly deeply (much of her work is political).

The whole problem with this "crying game" is that it came literally 24hrs after all the analysts in the media were nearly YELLING at Hillary to show some emotion and very simply saying she'd lose the presidency if she didnt. And... lo and behold, she cries the next day. I'm sorry, too much of a coincidence.

The people that say it was sincere always seem to forget the above fact. Hillary was just appeasing her critics, plain and simple. Giving the American public what they wanted to see. 'Twas not genuine by any stretch of the imagination.

Did she cry at any time when her hubby was philandering around with everyone in Washington? nope. Lewinski did the dirty deed on the very desk Hillary wants to sit at... did she cry then? nope. Did she cry for the troops at war? nope. How 'bout all the stricken kids she wanted to help with her Health-Care plan? nope. Fact is, she's a stone cold Ice Queen... period - and she's better off not pretending to be anything else IMO.

And let's be real, at what moment did she cry? When asked about how she maintains her appearance amongst all the craziness of a campaign. Of all the opportunities to cry, she picks one involving vanity. (sigh) Actually, that's probably better for a President... because if she cried for most normal things she'd have a box of tissues wherever she went.

The more this gets examined the more we realize exactly how Obama lost:
1) Hillary's crying game solidified the Female vote for her
2) McCain and Edward's strength with the independents stole votes from Obama
3) The Media-hype over Obama had a backlash with the young voters... they didnt turn out like they should've because they thought it was a landslide (it was only like 15% right?).

All of this translates into more votes for someone with a stronger purely Democratic base... which are the Clintons.

The racial issue is an interesting one, but I dont think it's one we'll ever truly know the answer to. In all honesty, I'm from the Midwest and I've been to NH a few times... frankly, I'd be more confident of Iowans voting for a Minority than people from NH. The fact there arent a lot of blacks in an area doesnt mean they wont vote for one. USUALLY, if there are at least SOME blacks in a predominantly white area it's enough for people to develop false negative stigmas and hence bring it to the voting booth (even if it's supposed to be a more "progressive" area like NH). You're almost better off getting votes from an entirely white area, rather than one that's somewhat diverse. Plus, Iowans are damned friendly people.

It's the "over the tracks" theory (I like to call it). Iowa doesnt have such a theory. NH does. So it wouldnt surprise me if the polls got skewed because of this.

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Cowtipper

I hope with all my heart that Obama will win.. The US needs a black president

Gambit7

Obama isnt even "completely" Black. The media doesnt really harp on this much though, not as much as they did Tiger Woods. Fact remains, the vast majority of Americans arent aware he's bi-racial. His mom is caucasian from Kansas, his pops is pure Kenyan.

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leejo

IMO the left doesn't care very much about having a black president, the left cares about having a liberal black president. It will be a fine day when a black man or woman can attain high office without being called various versions of "nigger" * by people on the left simply because he or she happens to be black AND conservative.

*google "Condoleeza Rice nigger", for example, and you will see a list of hits of left wing people being quoted and a list of left wing editorials defending this slur, saying well yeah, she IS a house nigger. It's amazing.

Bc2ID

Wow! You might want to edit your post!

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kilevvri1

Hey I am black and I am not offended by him quoting general sentiment to prove a point, I think people are way too uptight about race as is. Black people I think mostly, the slurs put on Caucasians individuals by the majority of black/afro-americans is ridiculous yet you never hear public outcry for that.

BTW I live in a country of mostly black people and we still have the bi-polar attitude towards the black & white issue. It's the same all over the world. AFAIK.

On Topic, I find polls are getting more and more distorted, and sometimes I even ponder whether or not they are fabricated? Don't put it past the media machines of today! Can you say FOX News, just an example.

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leejo

I think there's been a lot of on-going commentary about how changing technology has impacted polls' accuracy. For example, caller-ID and cell phones may be changing the typical respondent. Not my thing, but my guess is that has a larger impact on the polls than any single entity could have, since the polls are many, independent, and competing.

Personally, I like voter-fraud and ballot-stuffing as more likely explanations.

Kerostasis

It took me awhile to remember why "watch Michigan" was a bad argument, but I got it now. See if you notice anything jump out at you from these facts:

--Michigan runs an open primary, meaning any citizen can choose to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary, regardless of which party they are actually registered with.

--Demographic breakdowns of the previous three states to vote show that Huckabee and McCain get large portions of the votes of Independants who decide to vote in the Republican primary, while Romney gets much higher portions of the Republicans who are voting.

Finally...

--The Democrats aren't actually holding a primary in Michigan at all, leaving lots of non-Republicans with only one choice of primary to vote in, rather than two.*

See anything that might make Michigan slightly un-representative of who is likely to win a Republican primary?


*Technically speaking, there is still a Democratic ballot in Michigan. However, as punishment for violating party rules, the Democrats rescinded all of Michigans electoral votes, and all candidates except Hillary removed their names from the ballot. So you have your choice of casting a worthless vote for Hillary or casting a worthless vote for "none of the above". I'd be excited to go to that primary!

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