Gambit7

Okay... uhh, Obama had a double-digit lead in the polls, had the bounce from Iowa, all the hope and dreams of a LOT of people... and yet somehow Clinton wins. Someone please explain this to me.

Can't be that Hillary's fake tears and Bill's ranting lies (dont get me wrong, I actually like the Clintons) actually swayed the public did it?? Because honestly, that's the only thing I can think of that could do that.

I just dont get it.

I also wonder what the numbers would have been without Kucinich and Richardson in the race. Edwards for sure stole some votes and I think we can assume that McKain took many indy voters away as well.

Interesting.

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Tonk

its an inside job

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Atomic Dog

It's because only 18% of the voters who turned out tonight were under 30. Obama depends heavily on that demographic. Most of the 30+ voters voted Hillary. She also got the Woman's vote in NH, unlike Iowa where Obama had taken the Woman's vote.

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Lucky Shot

Polls don't really mean that much. Clinton led Obama according to CNN's poll of Iowan voters before that vote and she was demolished by Obama and that one guy the media doesn't talk about. I wish they would diminish reporting on polls within the big media.

Lucky Shot

whistler

Yep I have a school of thought that polls are completely random and for that reason I don't trust them. If they ask 100 people who they are going to vote for, it doesn't mean much. The NH primaries were quite shocking; this is shaping up to be a real barnburner.

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Gambit7

This is false... the late polls in Iowa indeed had Obama ahead of Clinton, just not by 8 points. Also, remember, primaries are EASIER to predict than Caucus' yet the media was dead wrong (by more than 10 points) in the NH primary.

No, something else happened here and I'm very interested to see what it was. Initial indicators point to Hillary's "Crying Game" she did the other day, which is quite sad (literally) if that's the case. It's quite convenient how she performed just before the primary after the media was blasting her for being too cold - now all of a sudden she's the emotional type (after a lifetime of heartless politics, 'cept from her hubby). That, coupled with Bill's falsified attack on Obama at JUST the right time (i.e. too late to dispute them) probably put her over the top. Apparently, NH people are in love with Bill Clinton. I give credit to Bill for that move though. It was cutthroat, evil, and generally sickening... but genius at the same time.

The other hypothesis is the "race card." Supposedly, people sometimes say they'll vote for a minority candidate when in fact come voting time they wont.. hence they throw off the polls.

Moral of the story: dont back the Clintons into a corner... they're a badass bunch

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Lucky Shot

This certainly was not false. The day before Iowa, CNN's polls predicted a 2% win for Hillary over Obama. Thats very similar to what we are discussing here where we had a pre-vote poll that proved to be horribly inaccurate.

Lucky Shot

Lucky Shot

Poll was released 2 days before, not 1 day before.

Those were the numbers I saw on the 2nd. Couldn't find it on CNN's website, found it on Breitbart. http://www.breitbart.com/article.php...show_article=1

Lucky Shot

Gambit7

So what were the polls saying the day OF the Iowa Caucus?

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Lucky Shot

I don't know what the CNN poll said the day of the election. I said before and that was the context laid down by the original post. That was the last CNN poll I saw before the election.

Lucky Shot

Hambergler

The results were very close and this is only representing 250,000 people per side. Not really a predictor here.

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Bc2ID

I really thought that Edwards would have snuck in and taken the primary. People in NH connect with Clinton, they always have and always will regardless of what pollsters say.

I am just happy that fake Mitt is at home in Belmont licking his wounds. I wonder how he will spin this? He put a ton of money into NH and has nothing to show for it. I actually woke up with a smile on my face knowing that he was in my state crying into his cheerios.

devious...absolutely....

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leejo

Interesting analysis here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/hor...inton_won.html

AMosely

I wasn't surprised to see Hillary take the NH primary.

I was surprised to see Obama come so close (1%) and bit surprised to see McCain win so strongly. It's funny though, the poor guy took the NH primary strongly during the last election and look what happened to him.

peardog

Funny thing.. I kinda like McCain now... probably because of what the media said last night.. if he were to have lost NH he would have to drop out because he does not have the "Personal" fortune of the other candidates... Are you telling me a Powerful senator, with time on the job, does not have a Sizable personal Fortune?? Apparently he hasn't discovered the "perks" of his position or is in fact not a Greedy SOB like some of them...
Gee..he isn't even a Lawyer..which should equal BONUS points right there!

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