Gambit7

Obama currently has all the momentum on the ground, in the polls, and even politically. Hillary sensed a problem, so yes... she cried today AGAIN! (sigh) When I heard about this today, I very nearly puked. She's a slick-chic. Unbelievable. You could talk to her about your dying mother's lack of health care and not get whimper from Hillary, yet threaten her campaign and she cries like Belichick. Personally, she wont get my vote even in the gen. election for this nice charade she pulls... regardless of her politics. I'll vote for Bloomberg if Hillary wins the primary.

In other news:
One thing people arent talking about is how California's primary is set up. Independents dont get to vote in the Republican Primary, but do in the democratic. This means ALL the indy votes go to the democrats, and the vast majority of those look to go to Obama (I believe 60%+). Registered republicans cant vote in the Dem. primary either I believe, which provides a buffer for Obama against Latino Republicans who characteristically vote for Hillary (Obama does poorly with Latinos - we wont discuss why in this thread).

So, I predict Obama will win California handily. Especially after the Oprah/Kennedy rally gets him the femme vote. The caveat again though, is that Hillary cried... will people fall for that tactic again? we'll see.

Illinois and Georgia are Obama's for sure. And something tells me characteristically "red" states are going to side with Obama, as it's somewhat apparent that demographic doesnt particularly like Hillary... regardless of race.

I will guarantee you a victory for Obama in Tennessee. Is their primary tomorrow?

I have to do some more research to find out about other states... more later

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Satertek

Paul got 2nd in delegates, the only thing that matters, as delegates = votes at the convention.

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Kerostasis

If its Hillary vs McCain, I'll join you in going for Bloomberg.

Granted, Paul tied for 2nd place in delegates in Maine, but since 2nd place in delegates was "zero" I didn't think that was worth mentioning. Everybody that wasn't Romney tied for 2nd place by that standard. After Super Tuesday I'll be all over the delegate count, but until then I'm still focusing on the popular vote count, since that seems a better predictor of tomorrow's results.

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Satertek

No. Maine isn't an all or nothing state, he'll end up getting around 1/3 (6 or 7) of them.

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Kerostasis

1--I've been going by This Site which says Maine is all-or-nothing. Do you have a different source that disagrees?

2--If the 3rd place vote total gets 1/3 of delegates, and the 2nd place vote total presumably gets about the same, that leaves only about 1/3 for Romney's 1st place vote total despite the fact that he received more than twice as many votes as anybody else. The absurdity of suggesting that receiving twice as many votes entitles you to only the same number of delegates as everybody else leads me to believe you've been mislead somewhere.

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Satertek

Maine is a bit screwy. The straw poll votes mean absolutely nothing. It's an entirely seperate process from the delegate selection. First they have a straw poll (which are the numbers the news networks show) then they elect delegates. As far as delegates go, Romney had the most with Paul in 2nd.

Here's a MSNBC article

and I know its a biased source but the RP campaign released this statement:
The sites putting all 18 for Romney are basing that on the fact that normally, they would end up agreeing on one candidate. But in Paul's case, he's got a bunch of loyal followers that would never get behind Romney.

Anyway, just hit the polls so thats +1 for Paul here in Alabama. (I'm betting on Huckabee winning, with McCain and Paul hopefully close for 2nd, Romney is a "liberal northerner" and won't get much of anything save from the few mormons here)

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Gambit7

(no flames here please)

Welp, I have to eat my words about the TN primary. Somehow, Obama "lost" in that state. I really thought he'd take it. The Clinton's are pretty weak in TN and there's a decent sized black population there. Only thing I can figure, much like NY and CA, is that the TN primary was largely race/gender based. Granted, it was a pretty tight race. Also, the weather may have played a factor. Really though, on the ground it seemed Obama would win there.

This is another disturbing thing I'm seeing from today's voting: It looks like the Dem. voters are really split among gender/racial lines. I had "Hope" that the typical stigmas against african-americans from Latinos and Asians would/could be wiped away, but it's not turning out that way... they're vastly for Clinton (as proven by the California poll numbers). Even the pundits and media are fearfully coming to terms with this reality. Also, gender is playing a role, albeit not as distinctly as race.

It's a shame really, but it shows the true nature of America... that it's "every group for itself" in this country. A "marble cake" instead of a "melting pot." Unfortunately, for Obama I dont think he'll be able to overcome the lack of acceptance from the other minority groups. Likely tomorrow we'll see a wider disparity in CA than we thought, as Asians and Latinos vote vastly for Clinton (this accounts for more then half the vote in CA I believe). His weakness is trying to bring people from every group together, fighting cultural boundaries he cant beat. Hillary has her base and looks to keep it.

Obviously, it's a similar type of occurance in places like Georgia and Alabama on the Obama side... but that's a bit more understandable since Obama is african-american (errr. bi-racial). Seeing racial lines drawn amongst other minority groups is disturbing. I'm not surprised, but it's still disturbing. I do have answers as to why the numbers go this way, but to avoid a flame war I wont explain.

Anyways, it was a fun race to watch today. It's definitely not over. But, I also have a bad feeling it'll come down to Superdelegates and the borked Michigan and Florida primaries. If that happens, the Dem. party will fracture. The only recourse would be a Clinton/Obama ticket to beat the Reps. in that case as Clinton will be villainized and uber-polarized (if/when she wins).

As for the Reps., that whole race is a clusterscrew. Romney is getting worked over by Huckabee's split votes. Without a doubt, Romney probably would've won the night w/o Huck in the picture. Interesting to see where the country lies though in its ideals... although still disturbing in many ways, similar to the Dems. issue(s).

(sigh)
Why cant people just put gender/race/religion aside and vote their minds?

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xTYBALTx

According to one poll, a plurality of Huckabee voters would have voted McCain as their second choice. Not Romney.

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Current good song: Justice - Stress

Gambit7

I saw that. But, I dont believe it.

a) that was a national poll. The problem is, this isnt a national election. It's a state/district/county based election. Meaning each candidate must satisfy each group, state, religion separately.

b) voters are proving they dont vote the same way they poll because they want to be p.c.


That poll is pretty empowering though, so Huck aint goin nowhere because of it. If I were Romney I'd bow out now and save my money.

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xTYBALTx

Maybe. I don't understand why anyone would even expect Romney to have broad support. He's an obvious fraud, and voters aren't that stupid.

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Current good song: Justice - Stress

tau_neutrino

Yeah, it's quite sad. The 'melting pot' idea is being debunked.

BTW, All the Asians I know (myself included) are Obama supporters.

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TacticalGamer TX LAN/BBQ Veteran:

TurkishDelight

Do people even realize what Clintoris and Obama will do to gun owners if elected?!

Just do some reading, it is scary. It doesn't look all that good on the Rep. side either. Rommney and McCain are a bunch of baffoons.

I'm really just sickend that people actually believe gun control works. What a rediculous idea! Such ideas usually come from people who have never even touched a real gun! I'm not talking about "your uncles 30-06", or your Uber 1337 paintball or airsoft. I know that real gun owners are just as frustrated as I am, and if they are not, they should be.

Argh I am so pissed off right now...


**Disclaimer**

"TurkishDelight may be biased, and is a proud American gun owner"

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|TG-Irr|Turkish

mentholated

I'm extremely worried, and concerned about what is going to happen when our gun rights go out of the window. Just look at where the UK is at right now. All it'll take is martial law to be enacted (which bush carefully paved the way towards) and the military is being trained as we speak to confiscate weapons from the entire US population, as well as UN troops.

El_Gringo_Grande

GOOD! GUNS ARE EVIL!

Just kidding. I will guarantee you that you will be able to buy your toys even if it is a democratic president. There are bigger problems. And if they try to do to much there will be the (basically) split house and senate to stop anything.

I think right now our biggest problem this country has is foreign policy. Gun control, abortion and other wedge issues takes a back seat from my perspective. That is why I am leaning to wards McCain. (But that can change at any time.)

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Sen. John McCain (AZ) For President '08
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I’m not racists, I have republican friends. Radio show host.
- "The essence of tyranny is the denial of complexity". -Jacob Burkhardt
- "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" - Emerson
- "People should not be afraid of it's government, government should be afraid of it's People." - Line from V for Vendetta
- If software were as unreliable as economic theory, there wouldn't be a plane made of anything other than paper that could get off the ground. Jim Fawcette

JMJ

One thing is for sure, after last night, Americans are the true losers in this whole deal. Look at what our choices are down to. Sad, just sad.