Queen Ifrica - Daddy don't touch me there

**CingularDuality** · 02-09-2008, 05:41 PM

Glad someone is saying something. There are days that I literally feel ill from dealing with all the rapists and molesters in Dallas. And I don't think Dallas is that extraordinary in this area. Check YOUR neighborhood: http://www.familywatchdog.us/

Atomic Dog · 02-09-2008, 06:02 PM

A few years back I took a job for Quality Assurance/Inspection. They had me training under a guy who, everyone was telling me, was a convicted pedophile. At first I just figured maybe it was just shop talk...but then I checked him out on the convicted sex offender list...sure enough, there he was. I didn't make a big deal at first, even though I do have a daughter, I like to believe people can change and are given the benefit of the doubt regardless of their past. And then one time, one of the guys on the line brought it up and in response he said, "Look, it wasn't my fault...she tripped reaching for a Power Ranger." And then he laughed and kept this smug look on his face. I about lost it right there. For a moment I saw red, but instead of losing my job over this jerkwad, I told my supervisor that I couldn't work this guy and if they wanted to keep me around they needed to get him off my shift. Next day he was gone.

I can't stand guys like that. I don't know why they have such a hard time keeping psychos like him in prison where they belong. I've had friends do more time over posession of marijuana than this guy did for pedophilia.

**CingularDuality** · 02-10-2008, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atomic Dog

I like to believe people can change and are given the benefit of the doubt regardless of their past.

This is not true of pedophiles. I believe their recidivism rate is higher than for any other criminals.

Atomic Dog · 02-10-2008, 11:59 AM

Yeah, I'm sure you're right. My idealism in relation to guys like that disappeared in a moment after hearing the words come out of that dude's mouth.

**Hambergler** · 02-10-2008, 01:24 PM

Nasty

**INSUNABULA** · 02-10-2008, 03:40 PM

It may sound harsh but castration may just be the key here - and I'm serious. Just like a weapon, if you can't aim and shoot in the right direction then it should be taken away.

**Rincewind** · 02-10-2008, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by INSUNABULA

It may sound harsh but castration may just be the key here - and I'm serious. Just like a weapon, if you can't aim and shoot in the right direction then it should be taken away.

It doesn't always work. :P

Atomic Dog · 02-10-2008, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by INSUNABULA

It may sound harsh but castration may just be the key here - and I'm serious. Just like a weapon, if you can't aim and shoot in the right direction then it should be taken away.

Agreed!

**Trooper** · 02-10-2008, 05:02 PM

funny story, not really cause i just about blew chunks all over the screen.

Two days ago i was driving home and seen a person along the road hitch hiking. The cops where talking to him, so i thought no big deal. I went and got gas, and he was still there looking for a ride just 5 miles down the road. So i figured, I'm 6'1 250lbs farm boy, I was way bigger then him. So i picked him up drove him to his destination even offered him a job working at my parents greenhouse.

I'm looking over that watchdog site and guess who is on that site for a sexual assault and rape charge......the guy i picked up.

Yep going to be sick.

**Hambergler** · 02-10-2008, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trooper

So i picked him up drove him to his destination even offered him a job..

Thats waaaaaaay too much information.

**Skylark** · 02-11-2008, 11:51 AM

In Glenn Beck's An Inconvient Book, one of his chapters talks about it... He has a funny litttle cartoon/instruction manual

Let's see if I can remember it..

Something about tossing them in the furnace, pushing the button and then enjoying an ice cream cone... (I'd look it up to get it exactly right, but it is in the car, it's cold outside and I'm a wuss)

xTYBALTx · 02-11-2008, 01:01 PM

Y'all ever heard of Bayes' theorem? Or the false positive paradox?

Let's say that the justice system is 99% accurate. That's a stretch - it's probably actually less than that, but let's say 99% for the sake of argument. Then let's say that the prevalence of actual child molesters in the general population is .5%. That is one out of every 200 people has recently or is currently sexually abusing a child. Again, I'd say that's probably a slightly high estimate, but it's pretty difficult to say what the actual number is with any confidence. But let's just use the .5% figure for the sake of argument.

So, then, what is the likelihood that someone has actually committed child sexual abuse given that they have been convicted of it in a court of law? 33.2%

The people listed as child molesters are statistically more likely to be innocent than they are to be guilty - and again, that's assuming only a 1% false conviction rate. And I'll bet some salt that the false conviction rate is quite a bit higher than 1% - especially for emotionally repugnant crimes such as child sexual abuse.

**Rincewind** · 02-11-2008, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xTYBALTx

Y'all ever heard of Bayes' theorem? Or the false positive paradox?

Let's say that the justice system is 99% accurate. That's a stretch - it's probably actually less than that, but let's say 99% for the sake of argument. Then let's say that the prevalence of actual child molesters in the general population is .5%. That is one out of every 200 people has recently or is currently sexually abusing a child. Again, I'd say that's probably a slightly high estimate, but it's pretty difficult to say what the actual number is with any confidence. But let's just use the .5% figure for the sake of argument.

So, then, what is the likelihood that someone has actually committed child sexual abuse given that they have been convicted of it in a court of law? 33.2%

The people listed as child molesters are statistically more likely to be innocent than they are to be guilty - and again, that's assuming only a 1% false conviction rate. And I'll bet some salt that the false conviction rate is quite a bit higher than 1% - especially for emotionally repugnant crimes such as child sexual abuse.

Wow, talk about a misuse of Bayesian inference. Reread and retry.

I understand what you're trying to infer here, but your example is better served for medical testing than for the prosecutors fallacy.

xTYBALTx · 02-11-2008, 02:05 PM

My example is not the prosecutors' fallacy. The prosecutors' fallacy typically relates to the (un)reliability of things like DNA tests and other sorts of forensic testing in certain situations.

My example is most definitely not a misuse of Bayes' theorem. It is a simplification, to be sure. But my simplifications go against my point. A more nuanced and complex look at Bayes' theorems' impact on things such as "the likelihood of guilt given a conviction" would likely make convictions appear even more unreliable.

02-09-2008, 03:30 PM	#1 (permalink)
LuckyStrike Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Richland, WA Age: 39 Posts: 865	Queen Ifrica - Daddy don't touch me there __________________ ............................... Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety. -Benjamin Franklin

02-09-2008, 05:41 PM	#2 (permalink)
CingularDuality Join Date: May 2003 Location: Dallas/Ft. Worth area of Texas, USA Age: 33 Posts: 16,405	Re: Queen Ifrica - Daddy don't touch me there Glad someone is saying something. There are days that I literally feel ill from dealing with all the rapists and molesters in Dallas. And I don't think Dallas is that extraordinary in this area. Check YOUR neighborhood: http://www.familywatchdog.us/ __________________ Become a supporting member! -- Shop at the Tactical Market! Take the world's smallest political quiz! "I was touched by His Noodly Appendage." TacticalGamer TX LAN/BBQ Veteran:

02-09-2008, 06:02 PM	#3 (permalink)
Atomic Dog Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Michigan Age: 31 Posts: 3,851	Re: Queen Ifrica - Daddy don't touch me there A few years back I took a job for Quality Assurance/Inspection. They had me training under a guy who, everyone was telling me, was a convicted pedophile. At first I just figured maybe it was just shop talk...but then I checked him out on the convicted sex offender list...sure enough, there he was. I didn't make a big deal at first, even though I do have a daughter, I like to believe people can change and are given the benefit of the doubt regardless of their past. And then one time, one of the guys on the line brought it up and in response he said, "Look, it wasn't my fault...she tripped reaching for a Power Ranger." And then he laughed and kept this smug look on his face. I about lost it right there. For a moment I saw red, but instead of losing my job over this jerkwad, I told my supervisor that I couldn't work this guy and if they wanted to keep me around they needed to get him off my shift. Next day he was gone. I can't stand guys like that. I don't know why they have such a hard time keeping psychos like him in prison where they belong. I've had friends do more time over posession of marijuana than this guy did for pedophilia. __________________ \| ArmA SOPs \| PCS SOPs \| TG Primer \| 4th Wiki \| Ikariam Info: Mothership \| Parliament \| Chocolate City \| Saint George

02-10-2008, 11:59 AM	#5 (permalink)
Atomic Dog Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Michigan Age: 31 Posts: 3,851	Re: Queen Ifrica - Daddy don't touch me there Yeah, I'm sure you're right. My idealism in relation to guys like that disappeared in a moment after hearing the words come out of that dude's mouth. __________________ \| ArmA SOPs \| PCS SOPs \| TG Primer \| 4th Wiki \| Ikariam Info: Mothership \| Parliament \| Chocolate City \| Saint George

02-10-2008, 01:24 PM	#6 (permalink)
Hambergler Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Houston, TX Age: 33 Posts: 962	Re: Queen Ifrica - Daddy don't touch me there Nasty __________________

02-10-2008, 03:40 PM	#7 (permalink)
INSUNABULA Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Toronto Age: 30 Posts: 1,462	Re: Queen Ifrica - Daddy don't touch me there It may sound harsh but castration may just be the key here - and I'm serious. Just like a weapon, if you can't aim and shoot in the right direction then it should be taken away. __________________ * INSERT RIBBONS HERE *

02-10-2008, 05:02 PM	#10 (permalink)
Trooper Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: In my wifes house......if she says i can Age: 25 Posts: 8,292	Re: Queen Ifrica - Daddy don't touch me there funny story, not really cause i just about blew chunks all over the screen. Two days ago i was driving home and seen a person along the road hitch hiking. The cops where talking to him, so i thought no big deal. I went and got gas, and he was still there looking for a ride just 5 miles down the road. So i figured, I'm 6'1 250lbs farm boy, I was way bigger then him. So i picked him up drove him to his destination even offered him a job working at my parents greenhouse. I'm looking over that watchdog site and guess who is on that site for a sexual assault and rape charge......the guy i picked up. Yep going to be sick.

02-11-2008, 11:51 AM	#12 (permalink)
Skylark Join Date: May 2003 Location: Kansas City area (U.S.A.) Age: 36 Posts: 531	Re: Queen Ifrica - Daddy don't touch me there In Glenn Beck's An Inconvient Book, one of his chapters talks about it... He has a funny litttle cartoon/instruction manual Let's see if I can remember it.. Something about tossing them in the furnace, pushing the button and then enjoying an ice cream cone... (I'd look it up to get it exactly right, but it is in the car, it's cold outside and I'm a wuss) __________________ "I've TKed better men then you, and I wasn't even trying!" BF2142 toons SkylarkAssault Skylark28 (Support) Snipelark (Recon) Eng.Skylark (Engineer)

02-11-2008, 01:01 PM	#13 (permalink)
xTYBALTx Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 3,650	Re: Queen Ifrica - Daddy don't touch me there Y'all ever heard of Bayes' theorem? Or the false positive paradox? Let's say that the justice system is 99% accurate. That's a stretch - it's probably actually less than that, but let's say 99% for the sake of argument. Then let's say that the prevalence of actual child molesters in the general population is .5%. That is one out of every 200 people has recently or is currently sexually abusing a child. Again, I'd say that's probably a slightly high estimate, but it's pretty difficult to say what the actual number is with any confidence. But let's just use the .5% figure for the sake of argument. So, then, what is the likelihood that someone has actually committed child sexual abuse given that they have been convicted of it in a court of law? 33.2% The people listed as child molesters are statistically more likely to be innocent than they are to be guilty - and again, that's assuming only a 1% false conviction rate. And I'll bet some salt that the false conviction rate is quite a bit higher than 1% - especially for emotionally repugnant crimes such as child sexual abuse. __________________ Current Tybalt theme song: Mason v. Princess - Perfect "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

02-11-2008, 02:05 PM	#15 (permalink)
xTYBALTx Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 3,650	Re: Queen Ifrica - Daddy don't touch me there My example is not the prosecutors' fallacy. The prosecutors' fallacy typically relates to the (un)reliability of things like DNA tests and other sorts of forensic testing in certain situations. My example is most definitely not a misuse of Bayes' theorem. It is a simplification, to be sure. But my simplifications go against my point. A more nuanced and complex look at Bayes' theorems' impact on things such as "the likelihood of guilt given a conviction" would likely make convictions appear even more unreliable. __________________ Current Tybalt theme song: Mason v. Princess - Perfect "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

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