leejo

That's not true in the south. In the south, the entire states are highly concentrated with black voters. Well, black citizens anyway.

I'm actually encouraged by Obama's performance. If the strategy is to retreat into the college campuses and cities, that's certainly an option, but I don't think it speaks to the democrats' broad base of support. If you start looking at the primary results by state (Google FTW again), Obama's support base is often very confined to urban centers, except in states with large black populations. That may be good enough to beat Clinton, but I doubt it'll play well in the general election.

Delta*RandyShugart*

Hilary is turning out the be the Nader of the Democratic party......plus she is a horrible woman, Obama, if elected could finally break down the racial barrier of being able to achieve any job possible, its funny that there hasn't been a peep from Al Sharpton, not one peep...

I'm leaning towards McCain, let alone being more of a moderate republican every day, especially when it comes to taxes.......When you break it down, the money that the dem's say they will take from the so called wealthy americans (ironically it includes themselves and celebs who can afford having that money taken away) doesn't really go for anything important....other than things that will help keep them in office...

I am just curious who Obama will name as VP....i don't think he'll be calling Eliot Spitzer anytime soon, but it will be interesting, and he better not nominate hillary, that will be the ultimate fail mistake.

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AMosely

That's why I said 'highest numbers of black voters' instead of 'all' or 'citizens.' I do think you make a valid point, but I am looking at it from the perspective of the democratic party. In many of the counties of the deep south, it won't make a difference who is on the democratic ticket. We're talking about the bible belt - the counties (and states) that Mike Huckabee won over - places where the evangelicals rule the voting booth. In my view, places like this are a foregone conclusion.

TheSkudDestroyer

Thank god I shaved my head! Now I can vote with confidence!

...Are you an apathetic voter or just not voting yet?

On a small note:

Who here wants a DARK HORSE candidate to SWEEP the democratic nomination out from Hillary or Obama?

Can you imagine how hilarious that would be? If I were eating while watching that go down I'd probably die from choking and laughter.

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leejo

Right. But those are the places that gave Obama his big leads. Strip them out of his tally and Clinton has a point.

Obama may have won the Democratic primaries in those states going away, but he'll still get creamed in the general election there.

FWIW you said the highest concentrations of black voters are in urban areas. I was pointing out that the highest concentrations of black voters are in the south, and not urban. Not sure we're disagreeing but it struck me that you may have a yankee-centric view of the country.

CingularDuality

My problem, beyond the obvious ignorance of thinking the color of one's skin matters, is the comparison of black people/black loving people to white supremacists. If you happen to believe that the demographic group tracked in polls is really based on the color of one's skin, then I'm disappointed in you, too, Leejo. Please tell me whether or not you think Bill Cosby votes a certain way because of his skin color.

I, too, find it interesting, and submit it as evidence that Sharpton and Jackson are wolves that prey on the threat of racism. They promote it every chance they get and the fact that a black man is this close to becoming President of the United States scares them, not on a personal level, but because of what it will do to their industry of racism.

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Elwenil

I find it sort of offensive that the point of "black people/ black loving people" vs. "white supremisists" was even brought up. Why are white supremacists even mentioned? I would think that there is a certain amount of whites and blacks that will vote based on skin color alone, but I knew a few black people who share my views on Obama and several white people that think Obama is some ray of hope that will brighten their lives somehow. Maybe I am misunderstanding but it sounds as if this person believes that there are "black people/ black loving people" and then all the white people are white supremacists.

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leejo

Cing, I think you're being naiive. Sorry.

Do you think that Leslie Elaine Perez won the majority of votes in the primary in Houston's 1994 election because of her name? Or maybe the fact that "she" is a convicted murderer and transexual inspired the good people of Houston to vote for Ms Perez en masse?

Race plays a big role in politics.

I think 98% of African Americans who voted for Obama in NC are fools, so no block voting by race is not something I advocate, but if you think it doesn't happen....well I don't know what to say.

I have no idea how Bill Crosby votes, but he has alienated himself from the black political power brokers already for daring to leave the plantation.

Show me ONE state where the black vote is REMOTELY as divided between Clinton and Obama as the the white voters are divided, and I will concede this point. Here's a link to help you: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

Select a state, then select "Exit polls" and scroll through the pages until you get to the section about voting by race. I can't find a state in which he is getting less than 90% of the black vote, but the whites are usually split...well a little less obviously. How do you explain this?

Switchcraft

Cing, you're talking about two unrelated things, "what's actually happening" and "what matters" and conflating the two.

The color of one's skin should not matter. But unless you have been living with your head stuck in a hole, we have had countless articles plastered all over the internet of people discussing whether to "vote their race or their gender" between the two Democrats. If people are willing to publish articles about it in the mainstream, then you're doing the dirty work of the identity politics crowd by criticizing leejo for observing it, and I'm disappointed in you.

In North Carolina, 91% of blacks who voted cast their voted for Obama. 18% of people who voted said race was one of several important factors. 6% said race was the MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR.

Now, since blacks made up 34% of the voters, you can make one of two assumptions. 1 is that, just by virtue of their skin color, they have a near-completely unified outlook on what is best for them, but that even though their outlook is based in the color of their skin, they are voting for Obama because he has the best policy ideas to address their issues and his skin is irrelevant.

The other assumption, the one you seem to have so much distaste for, is that his skin color may have something to do with how they are voting. Every single exit-poll question asked in North Carolina shows that people who live there have differing views on which would be the better candidate on the economy, on being commander-in-chief, on church attendance, religion, honesty, how they would handle "the recession," who had attacked who unfairly, whether their mind had been made up recently or long before. And those differences are fairly stable whether the respondent was from a city or a rural area, or their income level was different. The differences are there if the person responding was white. But no matter where they live or their income, if a black person responded then there was a better than 90% chance that they voted Obama, and you are purposefully practicing intellectual dishonesty if you think that that's a coincidence. That's the kind of voting result you find in a dictatorship that only allows one candidate, and it's the kind of statistic I would completely discount if I was writing one of my many, many poli-sci papers. It means that they are voting for a reason other than his policy preferences.

One of the largest complaints I've heard from Obama supporters is that there just isn't much difference in policy between him and Clinton. So unless you are about to post what it is you think that 92% of black Democrats see in him something that only half of everyone else does, then you should probably not be trying to accuse people of racism because they happen to talk about what is obviously an incredibly skewed poll result.

And I'm disappointed in you, by the way, for making reference to the "industry of racism" in the same post you try to accuse other people of making it up. You can either think identity politics is racist or that it doesn't exist, but don't try to have it both ways so you can promote someone. This is even weirder than when you posted about Obama being a "Regular Guy" instead of a "politician" when you know he won his first primary because he managed to disqualify everyone else from challenging him. Is that how a regular guy wants people to vote? Or how a politician wins at all costs...by denying people choice? Right now I see a demographic that is either making a choice because of the color of their skin, or because of some unknown reason nobody has presented. The former is their absolute right, and I don't think observing it is racist. The latter is an untenable position unless you're going to come tell us what it is that they know that other Democrats don't.

Hambergler

Obama is winning in almost every major national head to head poll vs McCain. It's a deceptively small margin IMO. Once the Dems choose their candidate. They will settle their differences and rally. McCain will be crushed under the avalanche of voter turn out. Regardless of Demographic.

Primary popular votes cast is obviously a poor predictor, but GOP 13 mil to Dem 32 mil? ... doesn't look so good.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-225.html

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CingularDuality

I am talking about two related things, and I am not conflating the two. As Leejo's response about Cosby indicates, we see that there is a definite demographic that votes a certain way. I'll agree with you that that demographic is called "the black vote", but I won't agree that those votes are a result of the skin color of those people. I believe that it's a result of the culture those people and of the people that they hold in high regard. I have several friends who are black and they can't stand the way their pop culture has swayed nearly everyone they know to vote for Senator Obama. Does their skin color make them think that way? If j.baker had said "the black vote" instead of "black people/black loving people", I wouldn't have had a problem with it. I think that small difference in words plays a huge part in my perception of what is being described. I guess my argument is too large and philosophical to belong in this discussion...

My main objection to j.baker's post, was the comparison of "the black/black loving vote" to the "white supremacist vote".

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Elwenil

Lol, you are forgetting that many people have said that if their chosen Democratic candidate doesn't win the Democratic Nomination that they will vote for McCain. That and the media is so focused on the Democratic fight that no one is really paying much attention to the Republican side since there is no controversy there and it makes piss poor news. In the end, Oba-sama may get the popular vote, but we all know that doesn't win elections. McCain will be our next President.

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Sara

If Obama's voted there may be alot more assassination attempts.

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Disciple - Bush? Is that some sort of slang for women? - Hahaha I love disciple.

btw Bush = worst president ever.

Elwenil

That was said during the last election about Bush but I don't recall there being any real creditable attacks on the President. Still, the fact that Obama is black and has a Muslim name could push some unstable people over the edge. Hey, another reason to vote for McCain! He's been in the military and was a POW in Vietnam so he's probabaly used to dodging bullets!

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Sara

KKK (Obama's worst enemy)

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Me - I'll Just blame bush.
Disciple - Bush? Is that some sort of slang for women? - Hahaha I love disciple.

btw Bush = worst president ever.