Re: TG Fantasy Stock Market League

**SmokingTarpan** · 05-14-2008, 11:48 AM

Yesterday:

Buy 200 MHP @ 43.98
Buy 100 RAI @ 54.97

**SmokingTarpan** · 05-16-2008, 11:53 AM

Buy 300 MO @ 22.16

**bkelly** · 05-16-2008, 01:25 PM

With the Fed hinting that it's done lowering interest rates and the fact that we're entering summer, which often has lackluster performance for commodities, I'm getting out of my gold position for now.

Sold 280 shares of IAU at $88.43 - $24745.21 sale

I purchased this on 4/18 for $25141.20, so the position has lost me $395.99 or 1.6%.

I'm also thinking that the pending market correction has been postponed until at least the second half of this year so I'm looking for a good opportunity to exit by SDS and SRS shorts.

bkelly
Account standing as of 5/16/08 12:25 ET - Down 7.32%

**Nikolas** · 05-16-2008, 01:33 PM

I started unwinding SDS yesterday as well. Will sell all of my SDS over the next two weeks.

**bkelly** · 05-20-2008, 01:03 PM

The market was down today on inflation worries. I still believe the market is still due for a serious correction but that has been postponed for now and seeing my chance I got out of my double short of the S&P500.

Sold 825 shares of SDS at $55.55 - $45,813.54 sell (Purchased at $50,077.50 for a 8.51% loss)

I'm still holding my SRS for now because I believe the sector is in for another beating although that too may be postponed. I may sell the position soon.

I'm not sure where to put my money now. I'm considering the Vanguard Consumer Stables VIPERs (VDC) or perhaps a traditional S&P500 index fund (SPY) for a few months. More research is needed.

bkelly

**Nikolas** · 06-06-2008, 05:31 PM

What a week!

I closed out my Ford short put options yesterday at an ever so slight gain (~$2k). Then today the same exact option that I sold increased in value 400%! Tybalt is an idiot!

I've still got my SDS (1449 shares = ~$86,000), which is holding my portfauxlio steady.

I also have nominal holdings in GE, Honda, Toyota Motors, and SPY (SPY is an S&P long).

I have about $60k in stock buying power, but I don't really know what to put it into. The massacre that I was expecting finally landed today, but I was one day short. I don't have an outlook from here, and definitely don't know where to put my money. Everything got run down pretty good, and I believe the market over reacted a bit, but we'll see. If I was forced to put money somewhere, I'd probably close out my SDS and put it all in SPY. I may also pick up some BUD (Anheuser-Busch) in anticipation of the much talked about InBev deal.

My portfauxlio is worth $91,000 - my loss came from a crappy Ford short from two months ago.

As it is, I'm holding tight with my huge SDS play. The hysterical market will probably chill out over the weekend, but who knows what next week brings.

**bkelly** · 06-09-2008, 02:29 PM

I got out of my SRS position today at a loss and for now have all my money in SPY, an S&P 500 index ETF.

Sold 275 shares of SRS at $87.93 - $24,165.66 sale ($554.09 loss)
Purchased 691 shares of SPY at $136.86 - $94,585.21 purchase

And in a close race my .CRR option is approaching maturity. As a reminder, I spent $100 to buy an option to purchase 500 Citibank shares on June 21 at $17.50. Citibank was close to $25 at the time and is now trading at $20. While not as far to drop, the time to get below 17.5 is quickly fading so the market is pricing my option below what I paid. That's still better than I expected. We'll see how it ends.

bkelly

Account value as of 1:23 6/9/08 ET - $94,512.38 (down 5.49%)

**leejo** · 06-09-2008, 04:14 PM

hey gang. I've been in the weeds at work and my crotch is still sore from my yahoo options debacle.

Bottom line is that I haven't made any buys or sells in a while, and frankly I don't intend to. From what I can see, the market has basically moved sideways for the last month. I don't have any strong feelings about which way things are going or what will trigger a move, so I have chosen the "do nothing" move.

Portfolio is still stuck in the low 80s. Stupid yahoo....

**Sabre_Tooth_Tigger** · 06-16-2008, 09:42 PM

Originally Posted by xTYBALTx

It's not generally possible to AVOID paying taxes. You can have some control over when you pay, but avoiding tax payment is rarely - if ever - legally possible.

Isnt spread betting legally tax free in america or is gambling taxable income?

**leejo** · 06-17-2008, 09:30 PM

OK first of all, income from gambling is like all other forms of income - taxable. Even if the gambling was illegal, paying tax on the income is still required.

Second of all, I finally got around to some portfolio repositioning over the weekend:

Buy To Open 10 .QJQLC SQNM DEC 15 Call $3.200
Sell 250 PHM PULTE HOMES INC $10.710
Sell 125 HOV HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES INC $6.380
Buy To Cover 50 COP CONOCOPHILLIPS $95.580
Buy To Open 10 .COPMR COP JAN 2009 90 Put $7.700

As you see, I'm bailing on a couple of my homebuilder positions, gradually. Also, I got out of 1/2 my COP short position and opened instead a PUT option. I'm still bearish on oil companies long term, although I expect the summer to keep them propped up nicely. By Xmas I expect the bubble to have begun to burst.

I'm still bullish on housing long-term, but there's no denying the slump they're in right now, and little out there to drive a turn-around.

The SQNM option is in response to the fact that it was one of very few companies who were up on 6/6, a pretty bad day on the market. This shows a lot of relative strength, and while I expect a bit of a pull-back in the short-term, I also expect this stock to rise as its new product - a non-invasive test for Downs syndrome - gets attention and press. The downside risk is, among other things, that several competitors are now suing them, so we'll see.

I have a couple of other trades that haven't executed yet. I'll try to keep you posted.

Still sore from my poor yahoo trade. Account value is 78k 'n change. Barf.

**USN_Squid** · 06-17-2008, 11:15 PM

I'm up to 115,000 with 40000 in cash waiting for the right move. I hate to say it, but I've done well with oil, soy bean and corn futures. My Brazil index EWZ did well at first and I'm still holding. I had a lot of hope for the Hong Kong index EWH, but it failed miserably.

**Nikolas** · 06-18-2008, 01:49 AM

Where do you find commodity futures??

**USN_Squid** · 06-18-2008, 12:29 PM

Originally Posted by xTYBALTx

Where do you find commodity futures??

If you have the ticker symbol you can get a quote and trade directly in the CBOE virtual trader. The CBOT site has all the information on the different commodities. It's a bit complex and I don't really know what I'm doing yet. I'm just betting on soy, corn and oil 2-3 months out. I think heating oil for the winter might be a good bet too.

Actually finding the ticker is somewhat tricky. I haven't found a simple site that lists them all. This one is fairly good. The ticker symbology is standard however:

The complete ticker symbol for December 2008 Crude Oil Futures would be - CLZ8.
The “CL” stands for the underlying futures contract (crude oil --Corn is C, Soybeans is S, etc.).
The “Z” stands for a December delivery month. (F=Jan, G=Feb, H=Mar, J=Apr, K=May, M=June, N=July, Q=Aug, U=Sep, V=Oct, X=Nov, Z=Dec)
The “8” stands for the year – 2008.

**Sabre_Tooth_Tigger** · 06-18-2008, 01:37 PM

Futures = dam risky

What do you think about crude oil, good for a fall/short ?

**USN_Squid** · 06-18-2008, 03:30 PM

Originally Posted by Sabre_Tooth_Tigger

Futures = dam risky

Very...good thing we're using fake money or I wouldn't be able to sleep. The floods prompted me to test the soy and corn futures...so far so good.

Originally Posted by Sabre_Tooth_Tigger

What do you think about crude oil, good for a fall/short ?

Who knows? Not to get too political, but there's no doubt in my mind that if there are changes in our oil policies (open anwar for example) the canard that there will be no immediate effect on oil prices will be quickly disproven by falling futures prices. And not just oil, but any commodity which relies on energy to be transported...like all of them.

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