The PA primary

leejo · 04-23-2008, 02:31 PM

First, a little horn self-tooting:

Quote:

Originally Posted by leejo

I think Iowa means that there will be a long bloody fight between Obama and Clinton. Clinton isn't going away because of all the interest in her ($$) and she has Bill Clinton campaigning for her every day. Obama isn't going away because he's pretty good, because Howard Dean and Clinton don't get along, and because Clinton is so thoroughly unlikable.

I think the Republicans will pretty quickly unite behind whoever wins NH, probably McCain. Huckabee is a real wake-up call and the message is that neither Romney nor Guilianni is viable. McCain is the guy. This is a major capitulation on illegal immigration but it may win the election.

That's how I sees it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomas Paine

...and if he happened, in shooting with a long bow of a thousand years, to strike within a thousand miles of a mark, the ingenuity of posterity I mean leejo could make it point-blank

Anyway, I'm eating this up. I think it's starting to shape up to be a very long ugly summer for anyone left of center, but I know some disagree. What are your thoughts on what, if anything, we can learn from the primary in PA?

AMosely · 04-23-2008, 02:46 PM

I don't think there's too much to say about Pennsylvania - Hillary took the blue vote by a healthy 10 point margin, which was pretty much expected. The democratic party has a uniquely difficult situation on their hands - Obama still holds the popular vote and more electoral seats. Indiana and North Carolina are up for grabs. The race isn't over, but that's starting to become a clear problem for the party. If they aren't careful, they could end up losing the general election to McCain.

The Times ran a good article today on this very conundrum.

**RGM-79N_GM_CUstom** · 04-23-2008, 02:48 PM

If the democratic party can't win an election after how unpopular GWB is they might as well throw in the towel and disband the party.

**TheSkudDestroyer** · 04-23-2008, 03:50 PM

Honestly...

The Dems are so...so likely to win an election against the republican party right now with the nations "polls" the way they are. So what's the big hold up? I honestly dont find much difference between Obama and Hillary. They seem to just say the other is not experienced/doesnt know what they're talking about.

Yes, it's democracy - but if this goes to the convention? How will the party be able to side behind Hillary/Obama/Dark horse if they're all brooding over their candidate not getting enough delegates/votes/super elitist delegates/money...?

The democrats could easily take the white house, IMO, after 8 years. But theres a big hold up over minor details.

Meanwhile, John McCain is busy napping, being a rickity old fart, napping again, and then doing some handshakes.

Cheers,
A republican.

leejo · 04-23-2008, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RGM-79N_GM_CUstom

If the democratic party can't win an election after how unpopular GWB is they might as well throw in the towel and disband the party.

I agree!

leejo · 04-23-2008, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMosely

bama still holds the popular vote and more electoral seats.

Obama hold more delegates, which is WAY different from electoral seats. electoral seats are usually winner take all, which would have Clinton trouncing him, having won CA, FL, OH, PA, MI, and so on...The only big state where Obama has done well was TX, and that was because of the caucuses. That's the argument the Clinton team is taking to the convention, and it's what has me doing the happy dance.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...lege_math.html

Quote:

Originally Posted by FTA

The Electoral math looks this way: if Florida and Ohio are safe for McCain, and Virginia and Missouri are too, as they now all appear to be, then McCain has a base of 260 Electoral College votes of the 270 he needs to win. He would need to only win 10 from among the states Bush won last time that are in play this year: Colorado (currently tied), New Mexico (3 point Obama lead), Iowa (4 point Obama lead) and Nevada (4 point Obama lead), and several tempting blue states in which McCain is currently competitive: Michigan (18), Pennsylvania (21), New Jersey (15) Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), Oregon (7), and New Hampshire (4), among them.

xTYBALTx · 04-23-2008, 09:50 PM

How Hillary can win:

ScratchMonkey · 04-23-2008, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xTYBALTx

How Hillary can win:

Awesome!

Kerostasis · 04-23-2008, 10:14 PM

Well, we've reached the point where neither candidate can actually win on pure numbers, so the rest of the primaries are mostly for bragging rights. The real contest now is to convince the unpledged super-delegates that one or the other candidate has a better chance vs McCain in November.

Granted, primary vote totals may help contribute to that impression, but its kind of amazing how little popular votes actually matter in the Democratic primary system. I mean, technically, even the "pledged" delegates aren't actually pledged to anyone, they are just selected based on likely loyalty. In theory, Chairman Dean could convince the delegates to scrap both Hillary and Obama and drag someone else into the seat who wasn't scarred by all the fighting they've been doing lately. Imagine Al Gore winning the nomination at the last minute...

**El_Gringo_Grande** · 04-23-2008, 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kerostasis

Well, we've reached the point where neither candidate can actually win on pure numbers, so the rest of the primaries are mostly for bragging rights. The real contest now is to convince the unpledged super-delegates that one or the other candidate has a better chance vs McCain in November.

Granted, primary vote totals may help contribute to that impression, but its kind of amazing how little popular votes actually matter in the Democratic primary system. I mean, technically, even the "pledged" delegates aren't actually pledged to anyone, they are just selected based on likely loyalty. In theory, Chairman Dean could convince the delegates to scrap both Hillary and Obama and drag someone else into the seat who wasn't scarred by all the fighting they've been doing lately. Imagine Al Gore winning the nomination at the last minute...

This is true of both parties. Even true of the general election.

I personally want McCain is to win. But I am not sure of this no matter what happens in the Democratic primary. I live in a bleeding red state and I don't hear anybody talking about voting for McCain. Either they are considering one of the Dems or they just refuse to vote. So they say.

**Skylark** · 04-24-2008, 01:11 AM

Some of the stuff I've read/heard talks about how Hillary won Penn because they don't let independents vote. but the next couple of states DO let independents vote and Obama tends to get their votes. Hence, an upcoming Hillary loss. Not sure of the accuracy, but I thought I'd post it since it is 12:14 am and I can't sleep.

Morganan · 04-24-2008, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skylark

Some of the stuff I've read/heard talks about how Hillary won Penn because they don't let independents vote. but the next couple of states DO let independents vote and Obama tends to get their votes. Hence, an upcoming Hillary loss. Not sure of the accuracy, but I thought I'd post it since it is 12:14 am and I can't sleep.

The communistwealth of PA has some strange voting restrictions, no argument here. The comments Obama made that the media made such a big deal over actually helped him more then hurt him from discussions around the water-cooler in these parts. (Allentown-Bethlehem area of PA) His whole "guns and religion" statement was basically a true one that nobody around here wants to admit for a large majority of the people in this state and actually helped him more then it hurt him. The constant spam of commercials his truckloads of money bought him didn't hurt either. (boy am I glad those are over for 6 months) Unless things get real ugly between O and C before this is over PA will be a blue state in the general like it or not. (unless C wins the nomination, then it doesnt matter how ugly things get, this is a blue state)

Kerostasis · 04-24-2008, 01:23 PM

I don't think you quite understand why people complained about his comments. We simple peasents were not complaining that we don't like guns and religion, but rather that Obama disparaged our guns and our religion as merely the last resort for the economically suffering to "cling" to after the real pleasures of life (that Barrack can enjoy with his scads of money) are denied to us. That's not what I'd consider a true statement no matter how many gun-toting church-goers live in the area. Mostly its just an insult.

Also, although it doesn't usually make it onto the soundbites, he didnt end the phrase with "guns and religion". He tacked a third, more lengthy and less sound-bite-able phrase on the end that basically summarizes to "racism". So in sum he believes that all those poor people who have been abandoned by a shifting economy compensate by clinging to guns, god, and racism. Yeah, real inspiring there.

leejo · 04-24-2008, 02:06 PM

I'm going to guess that we'll see a few comments about the source, but here's some interesting commentary on the whole PA thang:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1208...googlenews_wsj

Quote:

Originally Posted by FTA

And what of the reborn Adlai Stevenson? Mr. Obama is befuddled and angry about the national reaction to what are clearly accepted, even commonplace truths in San Francisco and Hyde Park. How could anyone take offense at the observation that people in small-town and rural American are "bitter" and therefore "cling" to their guns and their faith, as well as their xenophobia? Why would anyone raise questions about a public figure who, for only 20 years, attended a church and developed a close personal relationship with its preacher who says AIDS was created by our government as a genocidal tool to be used against people of color, who declared America's chickens came home to roost on 9/11, and wants God to damn America? Mr. Obama has a weakness among blue-collar working class voters for a reason.

His inspiring rhetoric is a potent tool for energizing college students and previously uninvolved African-American voters. But his appeals are based on two aspirational pledges he is increasingly less credible in making.

Mr. Obama's call for postpartisanship looks unconvincing, when he is unable to point to a single important instance in his Senate career when he demonstrated bipartisanship. And his repeated calls to remember Dr. Martin Luther King's "fierce urgency of now" in tackling big issues falls flat as voters discover that he has not provided leadership on any major legislative battle.

Morganan · 04-24-2008, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kerostasis

I don't think you quite understand why people complained about his comments. We simple peasents were not complaining that we don't like guns and religion, but rather that Obama disparaged our guns and our religion as merely the last resort for the economically suffering to "cling" to after the real pleasures of life (that Barrack can enjoy with his scads of money) are denied to us. That's not what I'd consider a true statement no matter how many gun-toting church-goers live in the area. Mostly its just an insult.

Also, although it doesn't usually make it onto the soundbites, he didnt end the phrase with "guns and religion". He tacked a third, more lengthy and less sound-bite-able phrase on the end that basically summarizes to "racism". So in sum he believes that all those poor people who have been abandoned by a shifting economy compensate by clinging to guns, god, and racism. Yeah, real inspiring there.

I didnt say it was inspiriing, I said it was the truth, and for the general area where I live, a big truth.

04-23-2008, 02:46 PM	#2 (permalink)
AMosely Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Maine Age: 33 Posts: 2,419	Re: The PA primary I don't think there's too much to say about Pennsylvania - Hillary took the blue vote by a healthy 10 point margin, which was pretty much expected. The democratic party has a uniquely difficult situation on their hands - Obama still holds the popular vote and more electoral seats. Indiana and North Carolina are up for grabs. The race isn't over, but that's starting to become a clear problem for the party. If they aren't careful, they could end up losing the general election to McCain. The Times ran a good article today on this very conundrum.

04-23-2008, 02:48 PM	#3 (permalink)
RGM-79N_GM_CUstom Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Paterson, New Jersey Age: 22 Posts: 2,130	Re: The PA primary If the democratic party can't win an election after how unpopular GWB is they might as well throw in the towel and disband the party. __________________ RX-78-2 Gundam EFSF Protoype Close Combat Mobile Suit Armor: Luna Titanium Armament: 2x Beam Sabers, 2x 60mm Head vulcan guns 380mm Hyper bazooka, Beam Rifle, Beam Javelin, Hyper Hammer, Gundam Hammer, shield TG Natural Selection admin. Need anything PM me. 7th Infantry FTW!!!!! "Snob? Nah...I consider myself more of a PC Evangelist...converting the heathens to The Way." Prophaniti "Windows is like Pokemon you gotta catch'em all." kenshinsama1

04-23-2008, 03:50 PM	#4 (permalink)
TheSkudDestroyer Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: NY Posts: 2,582	Re: The PA primary Honestly... The Dems are so...so likely to win an election against the republican party right now with the nations "polls" the way they are. So what's the big hold up? I honestly dont find much difference between Obama and Hillary. They seem to just say the other is not experienced/doesnt know what they're talking about. Yes, it's democracy - but if this goes to the convention? How will the party be able to side behind Hillary/Obama/Dark horse if they're all brooding over their candidate not getting enough delegates/votes/super elitist delegates/money...? The democrats could easily take the white house, IMO, after 8 years. But theres a big hold up over minor details. Meanwhile, John McCain is busy napping, being a rickity old fart, napping again, and then doing some handshakes. Cheers, A republican. __________________ "Everything was beautiful and nothing hurt." -Schlachthof-funf Gentlemen's Agreement: HAT Sniping \| I love TG - You do too!

04-23-2008, 09:50 PM	#7 (permalink)
xTYBALTx Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 3,676	Re: The PA primary How Hillary can win: __________________ Current Tybalt theme song: Mason v. Princess - Perfect "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

04-24-2008, 01:11 AM	#11 (permalink)
Skylark Join Date: May 2003 Location: Kansas City area (U.S.A.) Age: 36 Posts: 647	Re: The PA primary Some of the stuff I've read/heard talks about how Hillary won Penn because they don't let independents vote. but the next couple of states DO let independents vote and Obama tends to get their votes. Hence, an upcoming Hillary loss. Not sure of the accuracy, but I thought I'd post it since it is 12:14 am and I can't sleep. __________________ "I've TKed better men then you, and I wasn't even trying!" BF2142 toons SkylarkAssault Skylark28 (Support) Snipelark (Recon) Eng.Skylark (Engineer)

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