Asteroid

**Switchcraft** · 12-24-2004, 07:01 PM

Well, the news networks this morning reported an asteroid having a "1 in 300" chance of hitting Earth on April 13th, 2029.

I've been following the tracking with NASA. It's been upgraded twice today, and is now not only rated more dangerous than any other NEO to date, but has a 1 in 62 chance of hitting as I write this post. If those were Lotto odds, I think we'd all be buying tickets.

For all the latest on this from NASA, click here. Also of note, the Torino Scale, NASA's way of communicating the threat level of an asteroid to the public. No other object has a rating above 1. This asteroid is at 4 as I post.

It will be Friday the 13th.

Merry Christmas!

**CingularDuality** · 12-24-2004, 10:27 PM

I read or heard somewhere that an asteroid (or meteor or whatever it's called- a big hunk of rock hurtling through space...) passed between Earth and our geostationary satellites last week. It somehow wasn't being tracked at all until a few hours before it passed our planet. I guess it was large enough to destroy life as we know it if it had hit, and it's the closest that anything that large has come to Earth since we've been able to know about it...

Viper · 12-25-2004, 01:20 AM

Well Crap... I thought you where talking about the arcade game... Snot! I love that
game!

But anyway, stop me if I am wrong but, if a space rock is moving very fast in space,
heading to our direction, wouldn’t it get in our obit before hitting the planet?

Pending on mass, density, velocity and projectory?

**Switchcraft** · 12-25-2004, 01:30 AM

This one is half a kilometer accross, and I think they've taken all of that into account, yes.

**DudeMan** · 12-25-2004, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Switchcraft

This one is half a kilometer accross, and I think they've taken all of that into account, yes.

lets just hope it passes over the alqueda HQ for its big impact, we should be safe.

Sniper · 12-26-2004, 12:26 AM

2029...
9+2+0+2

Friday 13th..

........

**TheFeniX** · 12-26-2004, 12:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DudeMan

lets just hope it passes over the alqueda HQ for its big impact, we should be safe.

You realize the math on that is somewhere in the 16,000 Megaton range right? It would be a little more than just the middle east that got cooked.

**CingularDuality** · 12-26-2004, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Viper

But anyway, stop me if I am wrong but, if a space rock is moving very fast in space,
heading to our direction, wouldn’t it get in our obit before hitting the planet?

Pending on mass, density, velocity and projectory?

Well, what causes orbits? Gravity. It's possible that the rock will just cruise right by us, but as it does, its attraction to Earth will change the direction of its travel.

**Switchcraft** · 12-26-2004, 10:55 AM

The odds have increased again to 1 in 45. I think the current math is about 1600 megatons max impact energy. Just read NASA guy saying that at worst it will be the equivalent of 100 to 150 hydrogen bombs.

Viper · 12-26-2004, 10:56 AM

The Earths travel is basied on its orbit with the sun right?

**CingularDuality** · 12-26-2004, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Viper

The Earths travel is basied on its orbit with the sun right?

Among other things, yes.

**CingularDuality** · 12-26-2004, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Switchcraft

The odds have increased again to 1 in 45.

Which equates to a 97.80000000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth.

Quote:

I think the current math is about 1600 megatons max impact energy. Just read NASA guy saying that at worst it will be the equivalent of 100 to 150 hydrogen bombs.

The rating of 4 on the Torino Scale equates to "A close encounter, with 1% or greater chance of a collision capable of causing regional devastation."

This is not a EOTWAWKI event... Well, unless it lands on you...

**Switchcraft** · 12-26-2004, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CingularDuality

Which equates to a 97.80000000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth.

Absolutely. I'm not trying to scare-monger. But a 1 in 45 chance is still not something to be sneeze at, especially since this is the first time the odds have ever been increased upon further review.

I take comfort in the fact that even if it is going to hit, we have 24 years to figure out how to get Bruce Willis and Steve Buscemi up there to fix things.

**leejo** · 12-26-2004, 08:43 PM

With 24 years to work the problem our government can turn a glancing blow into a direct hit with a solid contingency plan in place for blaming the other side.

**CingularDuality** · 12-26-2004, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by leejo

With 24 years to work the problem our government can turn a glancing blow into a direct hit with a solid contingency plan in place for blaming the other side.

Indeed.

I was going to joke about the tidal waves that we triggered not being quite strong enough, but it's really not a joking matter.

12-24-2004, 07:01 PM	#1 (permalink)
Switchcraft Join Date: May 2003 Location: New York, NY Age: 30 Posts: 870	Asteroid Well, the news networks this morning reported an asteroid having a "1 in 300" chance of hitting Earth on April 13th, 2029. I've been following the tracking with NASA. It's been upgraded twice today, and is now not only rated more dangerous than any other NEO to date, but has a 1 in 62 chance of hitting as I write this post. If those were Lotto odds, I think we'd all be buying tickets. For all the latest on this from NASA, click here. Also of note, the Torino Scale, NASA's way of communicating the threat level of an asteroid to the public. No other object has a rating above 1. This asteroid is at 4 as I post. It will be Friday the 13th. Merry Christmas!

12-24-2004, 10:27 PM	#2 (permalink)
CingularDuality Join Date: May 2003 Location: Dallas/Ft. Worth area of Texas, USA Age: 33 Posts: 16,605	Re: Asteroid I read or heard somewhere that an asteroid (or meteor or whatever it's called- a big hunk of rock hurtling through space...) passed between Earth and our geostationary satellites last week. It somehow wasn't being tracked at all until a few hours before it passed our planet. I guess it was large enough to destroy life as we know it if it had hit, and it's the closest that anything that large has come to Earth since we've been able to know about it... __________________ Become a supporting member! -- Shop at the Tactical Market! Take the world's smallest political quiz! "I was touched by His Noodly Appendage." TacticalGamer TX LAN/BBQ Veteran:

12-25-2004, 01:20 AM	#3 (permalink)
Viper Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 24	Re: Asteroid Well Crap... I thought you where talking about the arcade game... Snot! I love that game! But anyway, stop me if I am wrong but, if a space rock is moving very fast in space, heading to our direction, wouldn’t it get in our obit before hitting the planet? Pending on mass, density, velocity and projectory?

12-25-2004, 01:30 AM	#4 (permalink)
Switchcraft Join Date: May 2003 Location: New York, NY Age: 30 Posts: 870	Re: Asteroid This one is half a kilometer accross, and I think they've taken all of that into account, yes.

12-26-2004, 12:26 AM	#6 (permalink)
Sniper Join Date: May 2003 Location: Memphis Age: 19 Posts: 1,724	Re: Asteroid 2029... 9+2+0+2 Friday 13th.. ........ __________________ New Server1 IP. Read the stickies!! This is how you check your STEAMID and register it.

12-26-2004, 10:55 AM	#9 (permalink)
Switchcraft Join Date: May 2003 Location: New York, NY Age: 30 Posts: 870	Re: Asteroid The odds have increased again to 1 in 45. I think the current math is about 1600 megatons max impact energy. Just read NASA guy saying that at worst it will be the equivalent of 100 to 150 hydrogen bombs.

12-26-2004, 10:56 AM	#10 (permalink)
Viper Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 24	Re: Asteroid The Earths travel is basied on its orbit with the sun right?

12-26-2004, 08:43 PM	#14 (permalink)
leejo Join Date: Sep 2003 Age: 39 Posts: 7,514	Re: Asteroid With 24 years to work the problem our government can turn a glancing blow into a direct hit with a solid contingency plan in place for blaming the other side.

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