aculle01

My concern is how is the US going to deal with this situation, especially if it escalates? We area already trying to deal with Iraq and Afghanistan militarily. North Korea is trying to flex its muscle in Asia. Iran continues to push its nuclear program as well as being the lead supporter of Hezballah. Conflict between India and Pakistan has flared up again as well. Unless the other nations step up and take a stance to solve the problem rather than point fingers, things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.

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icky

Hezbollah, yes. Lebanon, not so much.

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Kerostasis

Well, I consider Israel to BE one of those "other nations", and they ARE stepping up and taking a stance.

Certainly it would be helpful to have more nations, but we aren't alone here.

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Santa

Going under the assumption that this starts a major war (maybe world war 3?) in the middle east, wouldnt NK see this as a great opportunity to attack south korea? The US would already be stretched thin, and im sure their itchy to attack SK again. I know thats all speculation and unlikely to happen, but im somewhat scared because if that all happened, a draft would likely come up because the US would need a larger army.

Im almost 17, and im sure the war would last longer than a year if there was a war. My brother is also 21 and would probably be drafted as well.

Anyway, anyone see a recurring theme in history as far as the world wars go? World war 2 started because we were too harsh on Germany. Looks like this war (which may be called world war 3 at some point) is going to start because both the US and England messed up the mideast after world war 1.

PanzerHans

A Norwegian newspaper(http://www.aftenposten.no) had some interesting information I'd like to share:

The president of Egypt, Hosni Mubarak informed an Egyptian newspaper of the negotiation between Hamas and Israel concerning the first abduction. He stated that he had negotiated an agreement but that a third, non disclosed party, pressured Hamas to withdraw from the agreement.
Mubarak has not disclosed who this third party is. 14th of July NYT(New York Times) reported that political analysts in Egypt claim that this third party was Iran, who seem to benefit from having a high conflict level in Lebanon in the current dispute about nuclear power

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xTYBALTx

I just can't see this escalating into a ground war. Israel is the only country in the region with a strong conventional army, and it's also the only country in the nation with nukes.* How could anyone else go to war with Israel? Even if someone wanted to attack Israel, the conflict would be short and sweet - it may not even qualify as a 'war.' And I really don't see Israel invading Lebanon over this, there's just too much downside.




*Aside from the US, of course.

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CingularDuality

I don't understand what you mean by this...

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Kerostasis

Does that make it clearer?

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CingularDuality

That makes sense now, yes.

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micr0c0sm

Iran is starting a war because they had until the 15th to decide if they will comply with the UN or be sanctioned - by starting this war the #1 issue at the G8 summit is now the conflict in the middle east, NOT the sanctions that would have been imposed.

Usarion

This is my point of view as well. These countries that claim to be peaceful, need to take responsibility for the people...cough... terrorist within it's borders. I would even take it further and say that Islam as a whole needs to take some responsibility for it's people. I can't stand it when these so-called leaders tell us that these radical groups do not represent Islam as a whole, yet do little, or nothing to separate themselves from it.

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CingularDuality

Heh... I'm talking to a TG member on IRC, microcosm, that is on vacation with his family in Haifa right now. How's that for an exciting vacation?

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Switchcraft

It looks like my estimation earlier was correct.

According to my sources, Israel only attacked the airfield at the Beirut Airport, not the terminal....they left the radar and contorl equipment intact, so that it could still be used to direct civilian air traffic.

WhiskeySix

yeah - same thing happened w/ a petroleum refinery... jets destroyed the tanks holding the oil, but left the refinery itself totally intact.

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freebirdpat

Major areas of conflict that I see that might happen that would turn it into WWIII:

Israel vs. Arab Nations - They are essentially fighting terrorism here, and an ideology of those that want "Death to Israel" such as Hezbollah, and other Arab contingents that want Israel wiped off the map. US supports Israel, EU will probably be divided on the subject. Israel would probably want to avoid the big war on this, but they might be totally for it because after they win the war, they will have won their right to exist.

India vs Pakistan - Supposedly another terrorist scheme here, from what I heard the recent train bombing was using high tech explosive, and India is blaming Pakistani Intel, I don't know anything about this conflict, but the fighting would probably be very intense. US would probably support India here, or neither, I don't know what the EU would do.

North Korea vs South Korea - North Korea's leader is crazy, and I have no clue what exactly would happen here except that it would be stupid for North Korea to attack. US fully supports South Korea, EU is probably against North Korea

China vs Taiwan - China may decide to take back Taiwan if these other major conflicts actually break out into full grown war. Seeing as the majority of the world's military could be tied up in all the other conflicts, Taiwan would probably have only to be able to rely on Austrailia(if the Aussies decided to help them) for military backup. Right now, one of the few things I think holding China back from taking Taiwan or pushing the Taiwan issue is everyone keeps telling them "peaceful resolution", and the only peaceful resolution Taiwan wants is to be a soverign entity.

All these wars is also what it would take to stretch the United States military thin.

The biggest thing that WWIII might do, is abolish the UN or bring a revolution and rebuilding of the UN from the ground up, so that it is actually a useful entity. Right now the UN is merely a whining forum that never accomplishes any real goals that it sets out.