Diceman

Their missles, provided they've worked out the bugs, have sufficient range to hit Japan, China, S.Korea and Russia. Add a weaponized nuke to that package, and you may not have MAD, but you've still got a mighty unacceptable casautly count. Of course, that's assuming they've got functional missles and weaponized nukes - neither of which is known currently.

It seems to me that Kim Jong Il's priority is to stay in power. If he believes that the other powers are mobilizing to remove him, I think things will become hella-dangerous, hella-fast. Especially for the S. Koreans.

Kim Jong Il also has a number of ways to inflict conventional destruction on the South, if he so chooses - thereby removing the retaliatory nuke option from the other powers.

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Strag

I don't think this is really about North Korea. I think China is the true threat, and I think China is using North Korea to probe us (the U.S.) while they (China) continue to build up their military. Certainly Kim Jong Il appreciates the attention, and is happy to take center stage while China sits back and watches.

Buck Fush

I'd just like to point out here that the bombs that leveled Hiroshima and Nagasaki were based on 60 year old designs. (From present day.) Just because their technology is old doesn't mean it's not effective.

sordavie

Also, a simple gun type nuclear weapon is easy to build. From a conceptual standpoint, it's just smashing two peices of subcritical U235 together. From an engineering standpoint, it's just firing one peice at another. These sorts of nuclear weapons are not high yield but they are still nukes. The atomic bombs dropped on Japan were of this type.

Anyone with a good machine shop could make one of these, if they had enough weaponized uranium. Heck, South Africa is suspected of having tested a device of this type years ago. So, the question isn't how good their technology is. It's how much weaponized fissionable weapons grade material they have.

There's no doubt that Iran knows how to build a nuke. There's no doubt that most of the countries in the world could build a simple nuclear device of this sort.

I'm sure some larger terrorist organizations have people with the know how to build these. Really, what's stopping them is getting their hands on U235. Would NK sell a terrorist organization weaponized U235? Maybe. It's not like selling them super secret designs for building thermonuclear weapons, which are much more complex and require much more precise engineering than the simple gun type bomb.

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leejo

yeah but

that U235 is hard to come by. If you're going to blow your wad you'd probably want it to be in a device you know is going to work, not in something you made in your machine shop. Right?

This is a good thing, I think.

Of course, if you're an NGO, so to speak, you might as well test in the field. My guess is that there's some astonishingly sensitive equipment out there that makes very loud noises and flashes lights when it detects U235.

Wild speculation of course. Hushing up now.

Barracuda_Magoo

Not to nit-pick, but the second bomb was a plutonium implosion bomb.

Making a crude gun-type wouldn't be incredibly difficult, but making one reliable and small enough to use in a missile would be a lot more difficult.

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TheFatKidDeath

For North Korea, dropping a nuclear weapon by airplane is not an effective way of delivering an atomic weapon, especially against a military power as the United States. A primary reason the US was able to bomb those two cities is because there was essentially no Japanese airforce left at that time.

The North Koreans do not have such a capability to attack the US be it air, rocket or submarine. They want the bomb as a deterrent against a US attack.

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xTYBALTx

What makes you think that the DPRK's primary concern is the US? Aren't North Korea's most immediate concerns China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan?

Or, put another way, who is least threatened by the prospect of a nuclear North Korea - China, Russia, South Korea, Japan, or the US?

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Switchcraft

Did you come to that conclusion with information from the same source that told you North Korea spends less than 30 million dollars a year on its military? Given the consistant aggressive actions taken by North Korea against its neighbors, I don't see how you can claim that everything the DPRK does militarily is done out of fear of US aggression. The other countries in that region are all in a defensive posture because of fear of further aggression from the "D"PRK.

Also, didn't they just recently declare an end to the cease-fire? I recall that in August, North Korea declared the armistice from the end of the Korean War "null and void." Does a country ending a cease-fire agreement sound like they are afraid of an attack?

Acid

"North Korea will respond with physical action against any sanctions placed upon their trade." That's not an exact quote, but it gets you the idea.


Edit: From CNN: SEOUL, South Korea (CNN) -- North Korea said Wednesday that increased U.S. pressure against the communist regime would be considered an act of war.

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WhiskeySix

I'm generally center-right leaning, but this is a great post.

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Strag

Finally, a bite.

It came from right here, and it's not exactly new. I'm surprised you haven't heard of this plan already. North Korea is nothing but a pawn. I quote:

It is our duty...that our descendants will achieve eventual and inevitable domination of the planetary biosphere.


And while we're at it, Mr. Aussie, how do you explain THIS??? I'll be watching you.

Strag

Sorry for the old bait & switch, but sometimes levity can be good for the Sandbox.

leejo

Except for the fact that NK was working on the nuke prior to being labeled part of the Axis of Evil. IMO the nuke has little to do with national security. Their 10k arty pieces pointed at Seoul provide all the deterrence they need or will ever have. It has to do with $$, and the USA is the big check-writer.

It's perfectly understandable when robbers steal things, too: it's because they want the stuff. The guy who shot the cop in the back of the head here in Houston a few weeks ago was perfectly understandable too: he didn't want to go to jail or get deported. There's no terrific insight here, and it doesn't make the acts less evil.

If the good people of North Korea were thriving and happy, or even had a hope of achieving that state, I'd feel a little different about North Korea's government and its motivations, maybe.

SmokingTarpan

All sarcasm and joking aside (fear the China-Ant Nation Treaty, CANT for short), proxy wars are not a new concept; nor are gigantic wars that start with some action against a small, mostly unimportant country.

Hell, don't we assert routinely that Iran/Syria/(insert mideast country we don't like here) is the one pulling strings behind Lebanon/Al Qaida/(insert other country/faction we don't like here)? Not saying this is the case with N. Korea, but it wouldn't surprise me if it happened.

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