Welcome to Tactical Gamer

User Tag List

Page 25 of 51 FirstFirst ... 151617181920212223242526272829303132333435 ... LastLast
Results 361 to 375 of 753
  1. #361

    leejo's Avatar

    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Age
    45
    Posts
    7,383
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: The New Global Warming Thread

    I would simply say "impacting" the environment, AMosely. When a bear takes a dump in the woods, it's "natural". If I do it, it's "pollution". Humans obviously have a much greater impact on the environment that most animals, but when you put a value judgment on whether or not the impact is good or bad, you've left science and entered ethics.

    Now, as you say, you want to have a discussion about the morality of human impact on the environment. I think you have to balance the cost and the benefits of that impact. Back in the day, humans had a very low impact on the environment, and they died of hunger and disease and exposure. I believe that if we scale back our environmental impact, there will be economic and health-related costs to that decision. At my level, an economic impact means driving a cheaper car and living in a smaller house or renting, but for the very poor, an economic impact can spell disaster. So no, I don't think the moral decisions about human environmental impact are clear-cut at all. It truly is a global economy.

    Is there a balance? Sure. And the market is awfully good at figuring out where it is. People who want to use "1 less barrel of oil a year" can buy a car that will make that possible. People who don't care about using "1 less barrel of oil a year" can pay $5 a gallon before too long, and had better suck it up without whining about living in the row they hoe for themselves. Right?

  2.  
  3. #362

    Lucky Shot's Avatar

    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    2,016
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: The New Global Warming Thread

    Rolling Stone rolls out a one sided article on Ethanlol as a bio fuel. Interesting reading regardless.

    Lucky Shot

  4.  
  5. #363
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points

    Nikolas's Avatar

    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    2,960
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: The New Global Warming Thread

    Ethanlol is right.
    A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

    "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

  6.  

  7. #364

    RandomGuy's Avatar

    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    K-W, Ont.
    Age
    33
    Posts
    1,241
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: The New Global Warming Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by leejo View Post
    Is there a balance? Sure. And the market is awfully good at figuring out where it is. People who want to use "1 less barrel of oil a year" can buy a car that will make that possible. People who don't care about using "1 less barrel of oil a year" can pay $5 a gallon before too long, and had better suck it up without whining about living in the row they hoe for themselves. Right?
    That's fine for dealing with oil scarcity in the market but there is no market mechanism to drive a balance between the cost increased flood damages due to rising sea levels against oil consumption. This is because the people's houses that get flooded had an insignificant individual impact on sea levels.

    That's just an example, setting aside the question of whether flooding does or will occur due to oil consumption. I think environmentalists are concerned about commons problems like this rather than the scarcity of oil.

  8.  
  9. #365

    leejo's Avatar

    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Age
    45
    Posts
    7,383
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: The New Global Warming Thread

    Well, when the Oceans' rising levels become a problem, I betcha you'll see the market adjust to it. So far, rising sea levels is a bogeyman story to scare school-children. I haven't noticed any Malibu homes being washed into the sea. Have you? I haven't read about plummeting beach-front home property values in the Hamptons or Cape Cod as investors become leery of throwing their money into the sea. Have you?

    But let's suppose the waters begin to lap at my door. Where I live, Houston, TX, was once many hundreds' of feet under water. Am I to believe that by wearing hemp cloth, eating organic veggies, throwing a solar panel on my roof, and driving a car powered by Al Gore's ego I will somehow gain the power to hold the oceans back? Should I demand that the world's population adjust its behavior so that I don't have to move to Tulsa?
    Last edited by leejo; 08-17-2007 at 12:20 PM.

  10.  
  11. #366
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points

    Nikolas's Avatar

    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    2,960
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: The New Global Warming Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by RandomGuy View Post
    That's fine for dealing with oil scarcity in the market but there is no market mechanism to drive a balance between the cost increased flood damages due to rising sea levels against oil consumption. This is because the people's houses that get flooded had an insignificant individual impact on sea levels.

    That's just an example, setting aside the question of whether flooding does or will occur due to oil consumption. I think environmentalists are concerned about commons problems like this rather than the scarcity of oil.
    You're precisely right, RandomGuy. It's the tragedy of the commons, but there is indeed a market solution to it. Or at least a quasi market solution. Even the most committed libertarians (of which I am one) will tell you that they approve of government intervention into the economy for these purposes.

    So let's assume that the general GW claims are true. The market solution would be to just add a carbon tax such that the total costs of emitting carbon are built into the price of the carbon to be burned. It's a bit like a massive pre-emptive class action lawsuit. You're identifying the threat before it occurs and charging people based on how much they choose to contribute to it.
    A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

    "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

  12.  

  13. #367

    leejo's Avatar

    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Age
    45
    Posts
    7,383
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: The New Global Warming Thread

    That's not a market solution! That's a TAX solution.

  14.  
  15. #368
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points

    Nikolas's Avatar

    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    2,960
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: The New Global Warming Thread

    It's market based because the government is not imposing a quota on what may and may not be done. The government is attempting to adjust the costs of an activity to better reflect it's actual costs.
    A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

    "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

  16.  
  17. #369

    Kerostasis's Avatar

    Join Date
    May 2005
    Age
    30
    Posts
    3,855
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: The New Global Warming Thread

    The problem with that is the government is horrendously bad at determining what those "actual costs" really are. So the end result is that it devolves back to a Tax Solution, designed to give the government more control over our lives.
    Darkilla: In short, NS is pretty much really fast chess. With guns.
    Yoshi MCF: The fact that you speak Wyz doesn't disprove his insanity. It only proves yours.
    Pokerface: It's now cheaper to put gas on my cereal. I am saddened.

  18.  

  19. #370

    Greasy Mullet's Avatar

    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Tennessee
    Age
    36
    Posts
    952
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: The New Global Warming Thread

    Tax solution is not a solution. And why do we need a solution if we do not even have a problem? Climate change is real. Man made climate change is not as it is part of the natural earth cycle or should I say solar system cycle (points at the sun).

    So if taxes are the solution... then please send the tax collector to the Sun (send them all and the lawyers too!)

  20.  
  21. #371
    Achievements:
    SocialVeteranCreated Album pictures25000 Experience Points

    El_Gringo_Grande's Avatar

    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Location
    OKIE HOMY
    Age
    45
    Posts
    4,321
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: The New Global Warming Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by leejo View Post
    Whatever, Captain Sarcastic. Apparently a lot of lemmings can run off a cliff based on bad data and remain convinced that they're the smart ones when the measurements turn out to be bogus.

    Shall NASA weigh in?

    "Unlike the surface-based temperatures, global temperature measurements of the Earth's lower atmosphere obtained from satellites reveal no definitive warming trend over the past two decades. The slight trend that is in the data actually appears to be downward. The largest fluctuations in the satellite temperature data are not from any man-made activity, but from natural phenomena such as large volcanic eruptions from Mt. Pinatubo, and from El NiŮo. So the programs which model global warming in a computer say the temperature of the Earth's lower atmosphere should be going up markedly, but actual measurements of the temperature of the lower atmosphere reveal no such pronounced activity."

    From http://science.nasa.gov/NEWHOME/head...d06oct97_1.htm

    Howzat?
    Zat is not dat good, actually.

    That is from 1997, 10 years ago. A couple of things have changed since then. Here is a blog entry that explains some of the things that have changed since then.

    Basically it says early readings from the satellites suffered from poor technical implementation. These newer, and I would hope better, interpretation of the data do support current global warming models.

    The real risk is not to America or other developed countries. Sure it would suck for us if the predictions became true. Have to spend some money to fix things. Some would get a lot richer, others would go broke. The poor would suffer the most but screw 'em. They probably deserve it anyway. This is the American way.

    It is the poor countries that are most at risk. Change is very difficult to handle when you have limited resources. Of course some poor countries might benefit from this change. Might have some extra beach front property opening up.

    You are correct when you say many are hyping it all up and turning this issue into a cash cow. The American way coming through again. There is always somebody to take advantage of a situation no matter how bad. Does that mean we ignore all the evidence? Mock the bad data points. There are always bad data points. Always.

    I think it is very good there are those like you out in the world who belittle the science and reduce all the work to a spread sheet slope. I, frankly, have learned a lot about the issue because of your antics. Before these threads I thought very little about global warming. Put it right up there with Nostradamus predictions and the Mini Ice age of the 70's. I thought it was interesting and a bit scary if the imagination was allowed to wander but that was about it. But after reading about the situation over the past several months I am becoming more convinced that there is something to all this Global Warming talk.

    Thank you. (And I really do mean that sincerely.)
    Iím not racists, I have republican friends. Radio show host.
    - "The essence of tyranny is the denial of complexity". -Jacob Burkhardt
    - "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" - Emerson
    - "People should not be afraid of it's government, government should be afraid of it's People." - Line from V for Vendetta
    - If software were as unreliable as economic theory, there wouldn't be a plane made of anything other than paper that could get off the ground. Jim Fawcette
    - "Let me now state what seems to me the decisive objection to any conservatism which deserves to be called such. It is that by its very nature it cannot offer an alternative to the direction in which we are moving." -Friedrich Hayek
    - "Don't waist your time on me your already the voice inside my head." Blink 182 to my wife

  22.  
  23. #372

    Buckets's Avatar

    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Tucson, AZ
    Age
    33
    Posts
    990
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: The New Global Warming Thread

    Sorry if this has been posted already but I found it to be a pretty simple and compelling take, regardless of whether you feel there is an impending problem or not.

    http://www.youtube.com/v/zORv8wwiadQ

  24.  

  25. #373

    leejo's Avatar

    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Age
    45
    Posts
    7,383
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: The New Global Warming Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by El_Gringo_Grande View Post
    I think it is very good there are those like you out in the world who belittle the science and reduce all the work to a spread sheet slope. I, frankly, have learned a lot about the issue because of your antics.
    I don't belittle the science, I applaud it. What I belittle is the LACK of science and the rise of the Church of Global Warming, replete with brainless followers shouting "heresy" whenever someone disagrees with doctrine.

    Gringo, what do you suppose the slope of temperatures across time tells us?

    Antics? What antics? I'm not allowed to express my opinion without it being called "laughable" or "antics"? This is very scary, especially since I appear to be one of the few here who are looking at the raw data and doing my own analysis on it. How dare I find the slope of temperatures across time!

    I'm "reducing" others' work with this act? How so? I'm taking their work and doing my own analysis.

    Try it sometime. You might be surprised by what you find.

  26.  
  27. #374

    leejo's Avatar

    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Age
    45
    Posts
    7,383
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: The New Global Warming Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Buckets View Post
    Sorry if this has been posted already but I found it to be a pretty simple and compelling take, regardless of whether you feel there is an impending problem or not.

    http://www.youtube.com/v/zORv8wwiadQ
    I don't find this compelling, although it is simple. I don't think we face a choice between "yes let's fix global warming" and "no let's not". The real choice is between dramatic, mandatory "fixes" now or market-driven adjustments over time. As I mentioned in an earlier post, already many sectors of our economy are "green". As time passes, either a larger % will go "green" as the dire warnings play out, or the business cycles will play out as usual, and oil will go down, and people will go back to driving big trucks for $1.75 a gallon-ish.

    This presentation of a black and white, yes/no set of decisions is simply not the way the world works. Most of us can relate to this easily - we want to save for retirement, our children's' education, pay our bills, go on a vacation, buy a nicer television, fix the AC, paint the dining room, remodel the kitchen, and pay our bills right now. There is no "yes/no" answer to these issues: each of us makes some strategic and tactical decisions, generally takes care of the most urgent needs now, and places different priorities on the rest of the goals. I think this is a better model.
    Last edited by leejo; 08-17-2007 at 09:11 PM.

  28.  
  29. #375
    Achievements:
    SocialVeteranCreated Album pictures25000 Experience Points

    El_Gringo_Grande's Avatar

    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Location
    OKIE HOMY
    Age
    45
    Posts
    4,321
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: The New Global Warming Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by leejo View Post
    I don't belittle the science, I applaud it. What I belittle is the LACK of science and the rise of the Church of Global Warming, replete with brainless followers shouting "heresy" whenever someone disagrees with doctrine.

    Gringo, what do you suppose the slope of temperatures across time tells us?

    Antics? What antics? I'm not allowed to express my opinion without it being called "laughable" or "antics"? This is very scary, especially since I appear to be one of the few here who are looking at the raw data and doing my own analysis on it. How dare I find the slope of temperatures across time!

    I'm "reducing" others' work with this act? How so? I'm taking their work and doing my own analysis.

    Try it sometime. You might be surprised by what you find.
    I have done my "own analysis" on others works and sets of data. Not on this specific topic but in others, mainly cognitive psychology. I did that a number of times while in college. It was work assigned to me. And almost every time, especially at first, I was slapped silly by my professor. I would do some statistical test and he would grill me on why I picked that test. What did the results tell me? How did those results compare to other results of similar data? What further tests should I run to back up my original results? What are the weaknesses of the test I did? Did the data show any trends that the results did not show? And on and on and on.

    For example on the data you highlighted you pointed out that the warmest period seemed to be the 30's.

    Why? Is it random? Or is it because during that time there was also horrible farming practices going on? There where. The dirty thirties where caused, in part, by the farming practices of the times. A drought of the time increased the effects of the poor farming practices. Large tracts of land that at one time had much vegetation became barren and basically a desert.

    I don't know exactly what the data you pointed to is but I can see some trends in it that your slope does not take account of. Since 1997 the annual mean has been positive. That is the longest run of positive in the data. There is also the 60's and 70's where some scientists say cooling was going on due to the high level of pollution produced and a couple of volcanoes. Could that have hidden some of the temperature increase of the time?

    And I am not the only one to do this. I would say most researchers, when reading others papers, look closely at the methods and data used. It has been my experience they try their hardest to tear it apart and make it look stupid. Scientists are surprisingly competitive in this regard. They are, for the most part, the kids that never could be apart of a group so hate group think. They relish their differences and do not, under any circumstance, want to think like others.

    So one calculation on one set of data does not mean much. Scientists know this. But you act as if these things are not taken into account or the scientists are too stupid to see this. Or maybe you think they hide the data on a web site and hope no other researchers will find it?

    Further. The picture of the weather station outside the radio station with the air cooling unit right beside it. How does that provide any insight to the overall picture? That is one weather station out of thousands. They have thousands because they know a single station will not provide a perfect picture of the data. A dozen will not. A hundred will not.

    So I ask you, what does that slope tell you? Is it significant? How do you know it is significant? Does it take into account all known factors? When you say "slope" what do you mean? Was that the right test to do with the type of data available? Are there other tests you can do on that data to bolster your claims? Are there other tests that can lessen your claim? Did you perform those tests? If so what did they tell you? Is that data relevant to the entire system, i.e. global climate? Did your analysis take into account all other known factors?

    Don't think these are a large number of questions for a single analysis. Those questions represent just a small part of what is done during the entire scientific process and it's review. Bad data and papers do get through, there is no doubt about that. But they always get caught eventually. Add too this that if a young scientist could disprove the entire global warming theory don't you think they would jump at that chance? It would make their entire career. Researchers don't make a career of doing me-too studies, they make a name for themselves by successfully challenging the status quo. Every, and I mean every, scientists wants to prove some other theory wrong. But most realize that to do this they must go through the process.

    That is why I say you belittle the process. Because you do. You present very narrow slices of information, usually out of date, with little or no context simply to bolster your gut feeling. The only thing it has to do with the scientific process is that is where most scientists start, a gut feeling. But that is only where they start.
    Iím not racists, I have republican friends. Radio show host.
    - "The essence of tyranny is the denial of complexity". -Jacob Burkhardt
    - "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" - Emerson
    - "People should not be afraid of it's government, government should be afraid of it's People." - Line from V for Vendetta
    - If software were as unreliable as economic theory, there wouldn't be a plane made of anything other than paper that could get off the ground. Jim Fawcette
    - "Let me now state what seems to me the decisive objection to any conservatism which deserves to be called such. It is that by its very nature it cannot offer an alternative to the direction in which we are moving." -Friedrich Hayek
    - "Don't waist your time on me your already the voice inside my head." Blink 182 to my wife

  30.  
Page 25 of 51 FirstFirst ... 151617181920212223242526272829303132333435 ... LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Back to top