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[Ike] Houston TGers: Good luck to you

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  • [Ike] Houston TGers: Good luck to you

    I just wanted to post this up to wish you guys on Texas coast good luck in dealing with Ike. Take it from me (an amateur meterologist), dont underestimate this storm. I wont post endless brainy blather in this forum (like in various weather forums) since it's not really on-topic. But I will direct you to a well-respected weather blog and quote from it.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...&tstamp=200809

    "What should Texas residents do?
    We must assume Ike will intensify to a Category 3 hurricane by landfall, which would likely do $20-$30 billion in damage. Ike's storm surge is going to be affect a huge area and be tremendously destructive. The latest Hurricane Local Statement from the Galveston National Weather Service office puts things in pretty stark perspective:

    All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair."

    If you'd like another interesting website to follow: visit us at www.hurricanecity.com (many of my posts are there)

    Please please please dont risk your lives with this one. If you live anywhere near ANY kind of water either on the ocean or near the southern Houston bay area. Get out. At the very least grab a hotel or stay at a friend's house inland... ideally, at least 15 miles from the shoreline.

    If you live near downtown Houston proper I'd simply recommend riding it out, however if you have a reliable long-term place to stay far away then evacuation may be better. Especially where elderly and children are concerned. Need to take that family vacation? Do it now. Odds are a few million people in the greater Houston area will likely be without power for months on end. (no exaggeration here) Expect most of the highrises to be missing windows and the wind damage in the downtown area to be pretty severe, aside from the normal wind damage received in lower slung structures.

    In closing, please post here and let us know how you're doing during/after the storm. Finding i-net will probably be tough, but give it a shot.

    /babbling over

  • #2
    Re: [Ike] Houston TGers: Good luck to you

    Good luck guys! Be safe!
    | | |

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    • #3
      Re: [Ike] Houston TGers: Good luck to you

      Yea, I've heard it's gonna be bad. I went to my grandmother's house near Houston today to help her board up her windows. Traffic was insane coming back home even at 11 pm.


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      • #4
        Re: [Ike] Houston TGers: Good luck to you

        gl to pengy and others in the area.


        POE2 Developer

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        • #5
          Re: [Ike] Houston TGers: Good luck to you

          Amazingly, some computer sims are showing that Ike has a chance of still being a Cat 1 by the time it hits Dallas. This is going to be interesting!
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          • #6
            Re: [Ike] Houston TGers: Good luck to you

            I'll put things into some perspective for some of you. Hurricane Gilbert's (largest and 2nd most powerful storm in ATL recorded history) storm force winds stretched about 250 miles from the center. Ike's winds stretch over 275 miles from the center. We were getting cane force winds over 145 miles from the center last night. Ike has basically broken all the Atlantic Basic records for windfield size and overall Kinetic Energy imparted on the earth; even more powerful than Katrina. All that energy has to go somewhere so lookout.

            For an idea of where SOME of the energy goes, I direct your attention to this slosh program:
            [media]ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/i45_gl2.gif[/media]

            Anyone remotely near these areas that are reading this... you have about 8 hrs. to leave.

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            • #7
              Re: [Ike] Houston TGers: Good luck to you

              Hey guys I live 3 miles inland from Galveston Bay on its west side. We are in a voluntary evacuation zone in my county which is strange since nearly all the zip code areas north of me in Harris County(Houston) have a mandatory evacuation. The center of the storm is presently predicted to literally go over me. I'm sheltering in place and have made lots of preparations for a 2 week no-power experience. Biggest worry is the surge predicted to be 20+ft. Hope my third story apartment building doesn't collapse.

              Here is the prediction as of this morning for my place...for the first time in many years I think I may have to weather 100mph winds.

              I'll post back here if I can connect. Landfall of center is middle of tonite.

              Currently NE wind about 15kts and the water in the marina next to me is up about 5 ft.


              GMZ335-122115-
              GALVESTON BAY-
              525 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

              ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

              .TODAY...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WINDS 40 TO
              45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 KNOTS INCREASING TO 45 TO
              55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. BAY
              WATERS DANGEROUS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
              MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
              .TONIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WINDS 70 TO
              90 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 75 TO 95 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
              TO 115 KNOTS INCREASING TO 120 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BAY WATERS
              DANGEROUS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
              .SATURDAY...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS 55 TO
              75 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 95 KNOTS DECREASING TO 35 TO
              40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. BAY
              WATERS DANGEROUS DECREASING TO EXTREMELY ROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
              SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
              .SATURDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
              HURRICANE CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
              20 KNOTS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
              30 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BAY WATERS CHOPPY INCREASING TO ROUGH
              AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
              .SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
              30 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. BAY
              WATERS ROUGH DECREASING TO CHOPPY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
              THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
              AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
              .SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTH
              AFTER MIDNIGHT. BAY WATERS SLIGHTLY CHOPPY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
              AND THUNDERSTORMS.
              sigpic

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              • #8
                Re: [Ike] Houston TGers: Good luck to you

                Your building could be partially underwater. Maybe not up to your apartment, but it will be flooded. If you wanna go through that then stay. Dont, then leave. I'm showing many areas near you underwater almost 10 miles inland.

                What's your finished floor elevation on the ground floor of your building?

                (did you see the slosh map I posted btw?)

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                • #9
                  Re: [Ike] Houston TGers: Good luck to you

                  Nagin, I know if it was me, I'd leave, even if it meant sleeping in my car for a couple days until the worst of the storm past.

                  I have an Uncle in Alvin and a cousin in Friendswood, both southern suburbs of Houston, and they've all left to stay with my cousin in Austin. No since risking life and limb if you don't have to in my opinion.
                  |TG-55| Infantry Division - Former Captain


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                  • #10
                    Re: [Ike] Houston TGers: Good luck to you

                    The apartment building is along the side of a marina which is on Clear Lake. Clear Lake connects to Galveston Bay via Clear Creek. The building is built up on a higher ground than the average height of surrounding land. I don't know the exact height but eyeballing it I'd say ground floor level is 15ft above mean lower water level.

                    I did look over the slosh program and that does have worrisome predictions.

                    I'm an optimist so I figure this one could be close. BTW video on the local news channel is showing water coming over Galveston Island seawall which is 16ft above mean lower water level. Couple of feet of water now flooding downtown Galveston as the island is surrounded by higher water. Houses on stilts on the west end of island are now being washed down by the waves.

                    I see the wind getting up a bit outside now from the NE. My barometer is 29.65 and dropping. Galveston Island showing 25-31mph NE.

                    Likely to be an unpleasant night. :madsmile:
                    sigpic

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                    • #11
                      Re: [Ike] Houston TGers: Good luck to you

                      I saw on the news that the NWS has said for the first time ever, that people staying in most parts of Galveston to wait this out are committing suicide. this storm is taking up the entire freakin gulf, and as cing said - (the part that concerns me the most) is that there is a good chance it will still be cat1 @ Dallas. I figured being 5 hrs from the gulf I would just get nice amounts of rain from hurricanes, but to have to weather one.... WOW
                      Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former. -Albert Einstein
                      The two most common elements in the universe are Hydrogen and stupidity. -Harlan Ellison

                      If all else fails: "rm -rf /"

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                      • #12
                        Re: [Ike] Houston TGers: Good luck to you

                        Galveston will become part of the Gulf of Mexico. It's gone. Have fond memories of it and hold on to them, 'cause that's all that will be left.

                        As for Clear Lake... I've seen/read and talked to many people around there that have left. The Bay and the Creek/Lake are going to flood badly. Dunno if 15ft. will be enough. There are areas of the bay (particularly Baytown) that could conceivably be under 30ft of water even, but that's on the other side of the Bay.

                        Honestly my friend, I dunno if I would stay there. You'd SURVIVE it, but it wont be fun. I've been through many hurricanes myself and at first they're exciting but after a while they sap all of the life out of you during and afterwards.


                        maybe this loop will scare you :)
                        http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/sate...lat=27&lon=-93

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                        • #13
                          Re: [Ike] Houston TGers: Good luck to you

                          Updated slosh for Houston/Galv (last one expired):
                          [media]ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/i46_gl2.gif[/media]

                          eyewall should pass right over your head... might be able to walk your dog for about 30 mins inside of it

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                          • #14
                            Re: [Ike] Houston TGers: Good luck to you

                            Honestly I'm not sure why on earth anyone would stay in this situation. From the graphic that Gambit posted Galveston Island is going to be wiped off the planet.

                            Good luck guys (and Pengy). We'll be thinking about you.
                            Retired 6th DB

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                            • #15
                              Re: [Ike] Houston TGers: Good luck to you

                              Fellas..before you bash on them for not leaving, remember that not all people have the resources to leave..some may not have cars, no money for travel/gas/motel/food..etc...

                              I have friends that are sheltering other friends that have been getting there for a couple days, and they are all thinking that even Conroe is not far enough away..


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