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  • What if Apple wins?

    Not really Apple but the Apple model (and really it is the gaming console model). The model where most consumers buy a device that is locked down and completely controlled by company that produced it Consumers that buy locked down devices would probably be happy. Or at least their ignorance of the possibilities allows them a certain bliss. Honestly I only know a couple of individuals (outside developers) that actually need the functionality of a general purpose computer.

    What about companies? Are they going to allow a third party tell them what type of applications they can install and use? I would assume not. Maybe some would.

    So let us assume that most people end up buying these locked down devices and some companies continue buying general purpose devices. And I am talking about this happening over the long haul.

    If this happened I think many developers would try and develop solely for the web browser. Especially the creative ones that don't like being told how their software should look or what it should do. But a browser is limited. It can't really access the hardware it is running on. A company that wants to lock down the device can surely limit what a browser based app can do.

    What would they do? If the consumer is happy with a locked down device would the best of developers just stop developing?

    Maybe they do and the quality of the applications available on the locked down devices remains stagnant.

    I don't have any answers but being a developer I am curious of how things would change if Apple does win out.

    What do you TGers think would happen if Apple and it's model wins?
    Iím not racists, I have republican friends. Radio show host.
    - "The essence of tyranny is the denial of complexity". -Jacob Burkhardt
    - "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" - Emerson
    - "People should not be afraid of it's government, government should be afraid of it's People." - Line from V for Vendetta
    - If software were as unreliable as economic theory, there wouldn't be a plane made of anything other than paper that could get off the ground. Jim Fawcette
    - "Let me now state what seems to me the decisive objection to any conservatism which deserves to be called such. It is that by its very nature it cannot offer an alternative to the direction in which we are moving." -Friedrich Hayek
    - "Don't waist your time on me your already the voice inside my head." Blink 182 to my wife

  • #2
    Re: What if Apple wins?

    Stagnation. Initially, we might actually have a complete stop of innovation for a few years while the entire market and industry adjusts to the closed environment and closed hardware designs from a single source.

    Honestly, say goodbye to gaming as we know it today. Probably won't get back to today's variety or demanding games for a decade. Perhaps apps elsewhere would improve. Better code, better resource management, etc, but that's rather hard to tell as I don't know how stringent Apple is with programs for their hardware/environment (as in specifics). DIYers, tinkerers, modders, poof! Mostly gone practically over night (or over the span of a few years). Some are hardcore enough to remain but will probably face severe lawsuits from the likes of Apple's attorneys for various insane things (like patent infringement for adding a LED light to the underside of a rig).

    I don't think a monopoly is good, especially not for the web if people are only forced to use one browser from a company that is probably going to limit the number of devs who have access to the backend code/dev kits. You can look at it from a business side and at the various examples over the last two decades. Microsoft and AT&T come to mind. Monopolies are just that. There practically is no more market as all goods and services comes from one single entity. We lose choice for the most part. They can charge whatever they like, even overcharge to an extreme. And without government imposed limits, general computing is going to get very expensive for the average everyday user (given Apple's pricing structure over the last 25+ years).

    How did that saying go... "idealists rarely ever make good realists"? Apple's model is very idealist and in my mind, they try very hard to make it a reality. There needs to be a compromise between the two and I feel the current market is it (or headed there).
    |TG-18th| Acreo Aeneas
    TG World of Tanks Clan Executive Officer
    Former 9th & 13th

    Pronounciation: Eh-Cree-Oh Ah-Nay-Ess
    Still can't say it? Call me Acorn then. -.-





    SSDs I Own: Kingston HyperX 3K (240 GB), Samsung 840 Pro (256 GB), Samsung 840 EVO (250 GB), Samsung 840 x 2 (120 GB), Plextor M5S (120 GB), OCZ Vertex (30 GB)

    TG Primer and Rules

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: What if Apple wins?

      The only answer I can give is a deliberately argumentative one: wont happen.
      Sure, the vast majority of computer users might buy into the garbage, but there are tens of thousands of people (a small drop in the bucket, as far as market share is concerned, but still) who are going to vie for the freedom to do what they want, when they want and how they want. It doesnt seem like much, but there is a huge community that thrives on customization and breaking open closed source platforms to alter them as they see fit.

      The reality of the situation can be seen in the cell phone market. Google is winning with android, plain and simple. It's open source, its customizable, its easy to toy with and develop for. Predictions are that by 2013, a mere 3 years down the road, android powered devices will unseat both RIM (blackberry) and apple in their #3 and #2 seats respectively in terms of marketshare. Even as it stands today, the sheer number of people who are jailbreaking iphones has scared apple into court once and scared them all the way to the US Senate once. They're trying to block it at every turn and they're going to lose, horribly.

      Take the latest lawsuit against HTC for IP infringement as an example of their corporate mental state. They're scared. They dont figure they can go after Google directly, so they try and pick off their partners. But big dogs protect their pack. While Google did say that they wont directly respond or jump in to defend HTC in the lawsuit, when apple gave a press release talking about the new gestures they would be releasing for the iphone in the next software update (long-press and triple-tap), Google told them that they are on notice for infringing on THEIR IP, considering android introduced both of those gestures and did, indeed, patent them. Hell, it's causing such a stir, that the normally cool and reserved iceman Steve Jobs blasted Google as an evil monster in a recent shareholder meeting (the video is available...somewhere. i lost track of it). He didnt just say it, he YELLED it to the audience.

      And its growing in steam. Android devices are popping up outside the cell phone market with increasing regularity. There are currently 5 tablets on the boards for the next 18 months powered by android, all of them with specs that make the ipad look like a technological dinosaur. There are already e-readers on the market (the nook) that are powered by android. There are alos non-cellular PDA devices powered by android. Google has designs on releasing android as a full fledged (and cheap) OS alternative to mac and windows within the next year. All of these things share on theme: open source. Anyone can get them, anyone can design for them.

      So what would happen if apple's model won? Nothing, because it cant happen.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: What if Apple wins?

        Remember when nintendo cartridges were 'unhackable' because they were physically unable to be made by individuals? There were always ways around it just like there were for game consoles and as computers advance, and are always able to have an open source OS installed through some means because they are just machines, so just like the past there will always be a way around it and when people figure that out they will ignore the roadblocks.

        DVD encryption? Download it.
        Game copy protection? Get a cracked .exe.
        Limited by some arbitrary imposed limit by the designer? Get a mod.

        Most people will be satisfied with the locked model just like most people are fine with their consoles or their default windows setup. There are enough people that no matter what happens, there will be people who want to get around it and the lock down will never be absolute.
        |TG-6th|Snooggums

        Just because everyone does something does not mean that it is right to do.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: What if Apple wins?

          @Ferris. This isn't about Apple exactly. It is about that model. Things like OnLive!, XBox, Playstation, iPad.

          @Ferris and snooggums. Yes, there will always be, no matter what, a small market for the good stuff. And there will always be those that go around the blockades. But if that is a very small percentage of the market place then it will be very expensive to do what we love to do and the choices that we have come to expect will dry up.

          I keep telling myself that it won't come to that. But the fact is most of the people I know could care less if the platform is locked down and controlled by an evil overlord. As long as they can get their daily pop art and rumors about Brittney they don't care. Up till this point they had to buy a computer to do this. So they have been subsidizing our interests.

          Every technology that I can think of has gone from exciting wild west to locked down domestic. Radio, automobiles, TV. I hope that the internets are different but I don't know.
          Iím not racists, I have republican friends. Radio show host.
          - "The essence of tyranny is the denial of complexity". -Jacob Burkhardt
          - "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" - Emerson
          - "People should not be afraid of it's government, government should be afraid of it's People." - Line from V for Vendetta
          - If software were as unreliable as economic theory, there wouldn't be a plane made of anything other than paper that could get off the ground. Jim Fawcette
          - "Let me now state what seems to me the decisive objection to any conservatism which deserves to be called such. It is that by its very nature it cannot offer an alternative to the direction in which we are moving." -Friedrich Hayek
          - "Don't waist your time on me your already the voice inside my head." Blink 182 to my wife

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: What if Apple wins?

            The main reason I dont think that the closed-box model will win has historical precedent though. Firefox. The small sector of people who will always want more freedom are the same people who saw IE as being a worthless piece of junk, so they went out and created a bigger, faster, safer browser. A short time later, that browser surpassed IE as being the browser of choice and opened up ground for things like better versions of Opera and the development of Chrome. It's all about whats better and cooler for the mass market. Sure, we could see a limited period of closed-box functionality in the market, but within a short time, the modders, crackers and coders will come out of the woodwork as they always do and create something better, and that era of closed-box will come to a rapid close, just as it has time and again.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: What if Apple wins?

              where ever something is locked, someone unlocks it in a fraction of the time it took to develop the lock and purly for fun. no money in it. (ubisofts drm for AC2 springs to mind) although as you say things are all going into these locked up machines now days there will always be the community of people who want that freedom. open source will eventually dominate i think. no matter how good a company like apple or microsoft or whatever is. it cannot compete against the creative brilliance of those internet randomers who make fantastic mods hack cracks etc etc for fun and not money.

              so idk where im going with this lol. its been an alnighter for me but long story short. i think open source stuff is the way its going to be. might take a while to get there and be worse before it gets better but eventually i think thats the way to go.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: What if Apple wins?

                A closed system is like a locked house. There's always a way in if someone wants to get in and the person locking it down has to guess every single possible entrance. In the case of one friend who lived in a very upscale home, the burglars simply came in through an exterior wall (pried off the siding and punched a hole in the insulation and interior walls) instead of a window or door to bypass the security system.

                Ferris' example of Firefox is an example of the ebb and flow of control vs freedom. Firefox is the grandchild of Netscape after all and I remember when that was the browser to have over Internet Explorer.
                |TG-6th|Snooggums

                Just because everyone does something does not mean that it is right to do.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: What if Apple wins?

                  Originally posted by snooggums View Post
                  Ferris' example of Firefox is an example of the ebb and flow of control vs freedom. Firefox is the grandchild of Netscape after all and I remember when that was the browser to have over Internet Explorer.
                  And MS got scared and tried their darnest to crush Netscape using any means possible.
                  |TG-18th| Acreo Aeneas
                  TG World of Tanks Clan Executive Officer
                  Former 9th & 13th

                  Pronounciation: Eh-Cree-Oh Ah-Nay-Ess
                  Still can't say it? Call me Acorn then. -.-





                  SSDs I Own: Kingston HyperX 3K (240 GB), Samsung 840 Pro (256 GB), Samsung 840 EVO (250 GB), Samsung 840 x 2 (120 GB), Plextor M5S (120 GB), OCZ Vertex (30 GB)

                  TG Primer and Rules

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: What if Apple wins?

                    Originally posted by Acreo Aeneas View Post
                    And MS got scared and tried their darnest to crush Netscape using any means possible.
                    And IIRC that particular tactic didnt work well, as microsoft subsequently got yanked into federal antitrust court for attempting to railroad other browsers off the market or buying them up to kill competition.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: What if Apple wins?

                      There was a time, not that long ago, when only a small group of geeks owned computers and connected to a dial-up Internet to play online games. That market was likely much smaller than any "niche" post-console market might be in the near future. So at worst, we'll be back to the early 1990's in terms of supply. And there was a rich supply of games even then.

                      A bigger threat is software patents and the legal barriers to reverse engineering. These punish anyone that "innovates" by adding to what others have figured out but locked away behind licensing.
                      Dude, seriously, WHAT handkerchief?

                      snooggums' density principal: "The more dense a population, the more dense a population."

                      Iliana: "You're a great friend but if we're ever chased by zombies I'm tripping you."

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: What if Apple wins?

                        Originally posted by ScratchMonkey View Post
                        A bigger threat is software patents and the legal barriers to reverse engineering. These punish anyone that "innovates" by adding to what others have figured out but locked away behind licensing.
                        Interesting segue to this is that AT&T is getting their second android device and locking it down. On their first device, they yanked all the native google apps and replaced them with the crappier yahoo counterparts. On this one, they're doing the same thing, in addition to locking out the user's ability to install unsigned applications. So basically, if you get an ATT android device, you can only use the apps THEY say you can use.

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