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  • Some Myths About Oil

    From recent Foreign Policy article[sub req'd], written by Vijay Vaitheeswaran.

    The world is running out of oil. Hardly.

    High oil prices are here to stay. Don't bet on it.

    Oil companies are to blame for high prices. Actually, no.

    Russia's pipeline politics threaten the west. Not so.

    China's thirst for oil is insatiable. So what?

    Hybrid cars will save the planet. Not quite.

    A visionary leader can kick the oil habit. Absolutely not.
    A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

    "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

  • #2
    Re: Some Myths About Oil

    Too bad a subscription is required to read it.

    PS: I thought this was going to be myths about Texas Oil..... like he is possessed by spirits to allow him to kill me so often in counterstrike with such apparent ease!
    "Sympathy means a lot, coming from Kulmar. I didn't think it was possible.
    Good luck getting rid of your disease. If you're infected, though, stay away--I can't afford to be a zombie right now.
    " Ednos


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    • #3
      Re: Some Myths About Oil

      That's precisely why I provided a summary :]
      A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

      "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Some Myths About Oil

        An interesting blog entry about oil prices:

        http://www.downsizedc.org/blog/2007/...ices_are_magic
        Dude, seriously, WHAT handkerchief?

        snooggums' density principal: "The more dense a population, the more dense a population."

        Iliana: "You're a great friend but if we're ever chased by zombies I'm tripping you."

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        • #5
          Re: Some Myths About Oil

          Originally posted by TYBALT
          China's thirst for oil is insatiable. So what?
          Really? I agree with your summary except for this part. I believe that the main reasons for the current high oil prices is the increased demand from China and India - mostly China. The lesser reasons are the declining dollar (as the dollar loses value, the dollar value of everything increases) and a nervous market (nervous about political instability in oil-producing nations).

          That said, China's thirst for oil is a big deal - their demand is increasing while supplies are, well, not increasing. This is a problem for oil consumers.

          I think the 'kick the oil habit' response isn't a great one, but it's the best we've got - better than trying the 'war diplomacy' game with Venezuela, which I've said before was on Bush's agenda before 9/11 led him to war in Iraq and Afghanistan. You better believe there are people in American government who still want to tap that vein.

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          • #6
            Re: Some Myths About Oil

            This is a bubble. "Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness of Crowds" redux. These issues help feed the bubble, but it's a bubble nonetheless. In 10 years we'll all be feeling fat and happy and driving vehicles that make hummers look nimble.

            If you disagree strongly, go buy oil futures or throw your money on the ground, whichever method you prefer for giving a stranger your cash.

            I know a number of oil and natural gas execs, and they are ALL taking money off the table. The price is heading down.

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            • #7
              Re: Some Myths About Oil

              Originally posted by AMosely View Post
              Really? I agree with your summary except for this part. I believe that the main reasons for the current high oil prices is the increased demand from China and India - mostly China. The lesser reasons are the declining dollar (as the dollar loses value, the dollar value of everything increases) and a nervous market (nervous about political instability in oil-producing nations).

              That said, China's thirst for oil is a big deal - their demand is increasing while supplies are, well, not increasing. This is a problem for oil consumers.

              I think the 'kick the oil habit' response isn't a great one, but it's the best we've got - better than trying the 'war diplomacy' game with Venezuela, which I've said before was on Bush's agenda before 9/11 led him to war in Iraq and Afghanistan. You better believe there are people in American government who still want to tap that vein.
              It seems that your objection is more with the 'Eternally High Oil Price' and 'Running Out Of Oil' myths than with the 'China' myth.

              Regarding your second set of comments, on our diplomacy with Venezuela, I point out that the US can both refuse to engage in war diplomacy AND not kick the oil habit. The two need not be connected.
              A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

              "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Some Myths About Oil

                Originally posted by xTYBALTx View Post
                From recent Foreign Policy article[sub req'd], written by Vijay Vaitheeswaran.

                The world is running out of oil. Hardly.
                Oil is not being naturally produced faster than it is being consumed. Hence, the world is running out of oil. Even if we discover a few more decent wells, we are consuming it like water. Fresh water, btw, is also a dwindling resource. Much of the world does not have easy access to it.
                High oil prices are here to stay. Don't bet on it.
                Oil prices are certainly variable. They will go up and down as the oil corporations desire.
                Oil companies are to blame for high prices. Actually, no.
                You're rightn nations have a big say in oil costs. Going to war in the middle of the worlds largest oil resource, for example, will spike oil prices.
                A visionary leader can kick the oil habit. Absolutely not.
                Why not? It would just take someone being elected who did get campaign financing from oil companies. Beyond that, theres lots that can be done to reduce our dependence on oil. Theres no reason NOT to reduce the dependence. Lets say that theres enough oil to last 100 years at current and future predicted consumption. We cut our oil use to a third and now we have 300 years of oil. I'd say thats a good reason to reduce usage.
                |TG|Switch

                Better known as:
                That noob who crashed the chopper.
                That noob who ran over the mine.
                That noob who TK'd me with a sniper rifle.
                That noob who hit that APC at 300m with light AT! Our APC...

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                • #9
                  Re: Some Myths About Oil

                  Switch, you're gonna have to stroll to a Barnes and Noble, pick up Foreign Policy mag, and flip to page twenty four :] I'm not going to type the whole article.
                  A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

                  "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Some Myths About Oil

                    Other possible factors why Oil prices are high:

                    1) Lack of refining capacity in the US has convinced Americans that Oil is extremely scarce (Last refinery built in 1979, hooray NIMBY).
                    2) Drop in the US dollar has led many to find other places to store their money. With more money floating around the market and a slumping US dollar then the money tends to flow towards minerals (See Gold) and Oil seems to be a pretty smart way to go as everyone needs energy.

                    I do agree that speculation has increased the price of Oil and that your likely to see a correction.

                    Lucky Shot

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                    • #11
                      Re: Some Myths About Oil

                      Or:

                      3) Failing to anticipate increased demand in Asia, OPEC failed to increase its output capacity during the 1990s.
                      A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

                      "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Some Myths About Oil

                        Nov/Dec arent up yet on ebsco host. Once they are I'll give it a read.
                        |TG|Switch

                        Better known as:
                        That noob who crashed the chopper.
                        That noob who ran over the mine.
                        That noob who TK'd me with a sniper rifle.
                        That noob who hit that APC at 300m with light AT! Our APC...

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Some Myths About Oil

                          Recent hoopla over sugarcane, switchgrass, Hydrogen from seawater using radio waves, and of course corn (please) fail to instill any confidence in replacing oil as a primary energy source.

                          You just can't beat billions of acre-feet of complex hydrocarbons storing several millenia worth of solar energy as a fairly quick n' easy fuel source.

                          Did anyone see the Star Trek (one of the new series, don't remember) when they had this treasure they were guarding as they took it to some collector or museum? It gets stolen, they get it back and at the end they all sit in wonder and awe looking at this incredible artifact from 20th-C earth: a little plastic something or other.

                          Someone says: "Can you believe they actually took the only known source for making this material and actually burned it for fuel?!"

                          I'll never forget that concept...can you imagine life without plastics?
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                          Living proof that "Teamplay ensmartens the idiotest of us!"

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                          • #14
                            Re: Some Myths About Oil

                            Wow star trek isnt usually quite that retarded.

                            The only way we will have life without plastics if we decide to stop making it. We wont run the planet dry of oil. If for some reason we did, we have processes to make oil out of biowaste, the good low sulfur oil too. We wont run out of oil for plastics and other things derived from oil.

                            We will never tap every barrel of oil on earth. As it becomes more scarce price will go up, when the price gets too high it will be economically disadvantageous to use it. People will be forced to adopt alternatives for cost. This will happen when there is still lots of oil to be pumped. Think of Alberta, it will take forever to dig the whole place up.

                            And the cost of plastic goods wont really skyrocket, since for many products made with plastic, the price of the materials isn't the main cost.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Some Myths About Oil

                              Some historical perspective from 'Peak Oil Again?' :

                              "In 1980, when oil reached $101.70 per barrel in real terms, spending on gasoline was 4.5 percent of GDP, 7.2 percent of consumer expenditures, and 6.2 percent of personal disposable income, according to a March 2005 report by Goldman Sachs. If oil prices reach $105 per barrel, the report noted that gasoline spending would reach 3.6 percent of forecasted GDP, 5.3 percent of consumer expenditures, and 5.0 percent of personal disposable income. Prices would have to rise to $135 per barrel to equal 1970s levels. In addition, it takes only half as much energy to produce a dollar of GDP today than it did in 1980."
                              A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

                              "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

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