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  • #61
    Re: TG Fantasy Stock Market League

    Alright, I bought 3 more stocks.

    100 shares of Ameren Corp (AEE), which is an energy company (happens to be my power supplier, in fact). With this I'm betting that over the summer stock will rise due to increased power usage. Looking at their trading history, this is a mostly safe bet.

    200 shares of Tyson Foods (TSN), which is a meat company. Shares seem to be rising due to increased meat cost reports, and I'm also making another summer trend bet.

    200 shares of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST), which is, well, Costco :P. Basically a discount store that has been doing almost nothing but gaining for several years. Also, some reports have come out about how Costco is acquiring brands that would never sell to them in the first place, and every analyst I've read has nothing but "you go girl!" type comments about the practice. They also just entered into a decent deal with Enterprise Car Rental.

    That brings my portfolio to the following:

    AEE
    BBI
    COST
    INTC
    NVDA
    TSN
    [squadl]
    "I am the prettiest african-american, vietnamese..cong..person." -SugarNCamo

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    • #62
      Re: TG Fantasy Stock Market League

      Originally posted by SmokingTarpan View Post
      200 shares of Tyson Foods (TSN), which is a meat company. Shares seem to be rising due to increased meat cost reports, and I'm also making another summer trend bet.
      Here's hoping your meat goes up and stays up.

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      • #63
        Re: TG Fantasy Stock Market League

        Originally posted by leejo View Post
        Here's hoping your meat goes up and stays up.
        Okay, even if I lose everything, stocks are now officially fun because of this.
        [squadl]
        "I am the prettiest african-american, vietnamese..cong..person." -SugarNCamo

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        • #64
          Re: TG Fantasy Stock Market League

          Originally posted by leejo View Post
          I am so bullish on homebuilders right now.
          Oh, good heavens, why?

          Originally posted by leejo
          If you look at their tickers, they really bottomed out in January and have been trading very strongly since.
          Perhaps that strength is nothing more than short traders cashing out.

          Originally posted by leejo
          What's not to love other than the lack of dividends?
          Well, how about...

          1) We won't be seeing the bottom of real estate prices until the banks sell the properties on which they foreclosed and the banks are about to get a glut.

          2) With property values dropping, homebuilder's can't make as much money. Wall Street punishes companies with no growth.

          3) Homebuilders overbuilt in the boom years and now have more houses than they can sell. What happens to the value of the company if their inventory and land drops in value?

          4) Homebuilders build suburbs and it's the suburbs that are suffering. If we passed peak oil in Jan 2008, it's only going to get worse.

          bkelly

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          • #65
            Re: TG Fantasy Stock Market League

            Originally posted by Switch View Post
            Financially or Ethically?

            :P
            Does it matter? They have the money to do whatever they want and get away with it. 3 trips to capitol hill and what has changed? Nothing, so if you think they are unethical, whatcha gonna do about it to change it?
            sigpic

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            • #66
              Re: TG Fantasy Stock Market League

              Good thing I bought those 2000 shares of Blockbuster, because it was my hottest performing stock today! Most everything else lost, so the BBI stock really really helped keep me from losing much at all.
              "Common sense is not so common." -Voltaire

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              • #67
                Re: TG Fantasy Stock Market League

                Originally posted by bkelly View Post
                Oh, good heavens, why?



                Perhaps that strength is nothing more than short traders cashing out.



                Well, how about...

                1) We won't be seeing the bottom of real estate prices until the banks sell the properties on which they foreclosed and the banks are about to get a glut.

                2) With property values dropping, homebuilder's can't make as much money. Wall Street punishes companies with no growth.

                3) Homebuilders overbuilt in the boom years and now have more houses than they can sell. What happens to the value of the company if their inventory and land drops in value?

                4) Homebuilders build suburbs and it's the suburbs that are suffering. If we passed peak oil in Jan 2008, it's only going to get worse.

                bkelly
                Ok. All I know is that I've been watching these stocks every day for 9 months. Earlier this year, I started loading up on PHM and TOL and I'm up 10% and 12% since February on them. I'm watching HOV, KBH, CTX every day, and am interested in a few of them. With my financials, I've been more hit and miss, but the dividends are yielding around 10% on average, so if the stocks continue to sit still, and I continue to load up on them, I'll still be making 10% and camping out on a pile when they start ticking up strongly. If the data changes I'll change my opinion. I'm not married to them, I'm just participating in the homebuilder rally and carefully accumulating financials.

                Personally I think your thinking is about a year slow. Look at SRS. Up 30% over the last year, but down 9.93% over the last 6 months, and down 11.07% the last 30 days. Meanwhile TOL is up 11.5% over 30 days and 14.2% over 60 days. PHM is up 14.5% the last 30 days and 5.2% over 60, and pays a little dividend to boot. Yes I do keep an eye on the short interest on these stocks, and I see that it's up about 2 million each since last month, but still only 3 and 4 days to cover, which doesn't bug me much.

                Maybe I'm wrong, but I can afford to be wrong for a little while. You, however, had better hope the market changes its mind fast. Down $2233 so far? If you're not up after a day like yesterday, something is seriously wrong with your strategy.

                I'll be keeping an eye on your trades in case I turn out to be wrong. You try not to ride your position into the dirt before admitting to yourself that you're wrong. I strongly suggest selling off a large portion of both your positions and diversifying. Also consider using cost averaging to manage your risk. I mean, if you're right, you'll win big, but remember the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid.

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                • #68
                  Re: TG Fantasy Stock Market League

                  I just want to add that I am aware of the news regarding these sectors and these companies. After all I have my real money invested in them. I have a different interpretation of the current situation that you do. The Fed has clearly signaled that it will back the big banks. Low interest rates WILL benefit banks and also homebuilders. Plus, if you look at the average daily volume in the markets, they've been ticking up over several months. This tells me that money is beginning to flow back into the market - people are accepting risk. This will, I believe, benefit our currency, since you have to buy the dollar to trade on Wall Street. A stronger dollar will drive down commodities. And so on.

                  Yes things are very bad now on main street, but if you pay attention you can see the big investors starting to perk up. Buy low!
                  Last edited by leejo; 04-18-2008, 12:22 AM.

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                  • #69
                    Re: TG Fantasy Stock Market League

                    Originally posted by leejo View Post
                    Maybe I'm wrong, but I can afford to be wrong for a little while. You, however, had better hope the market changes its mind fast. Down $2233 so far? If you're not up after a day like yesterday, something is seriously wrong with your strategy.
                    Just curious leejo, are you watching our portfolios through the trade tool somehow? Are we supposed to be sending in reports of how we're doing? Or did I just miss a post somewhere?

                    Although I suppose you could just be plugging in the stock he bought and doing the math yourself...
                    [squadl]
                    "I am the prettiest african-american, vietnamese..cong..person." -SugarNCamo

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Re: TG Fantasy Stock Market League

                      Ok, so I signed up but I'm having a difficult time choosing stocks that deal in debauchery, delinquency, and morality that would make your mothers toes curl. Help me trade on morality! I'll kick all your butts when I can find some porn stocks to pump!
                      ~~ Veritas simplex oratio est ~~
                      No matter how far a wizard goes, he will always come back for his hat. --T. Pratchett

                      <---- You know you're getting old when you rely on your forum meta-data to remind you how old you are.

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                      • #71
                        Re: TG Fantasy Stock Market League

                        Originally posted by leejo View Post
                        Personally I think your thinking is about a year slow.
                        Ooh, speaking of which, my trade today:

                        Bought 280 shares of IAU at $89.79 - $25141.20 purchase

                        IAU is an ETF that corresponds to the price of gold.

                        bkelly
                        Account standing as of 4/18/08 10:26 ET - Down 3.77%

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                        • #72
                          Re: TG Fantasy Stock Market League

                          Originally posted by Rincewind View Post
                          I'll kick all your butts when I can find some porn stocks to pump!
                          Here's a Forbes article with a few options for you.

                          bkelly

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                          • #73
                            Re: TG Fantasy Stock Market League

                            Ok I have been pretty quiet on the trading front recently because I have been trying to learn about developing a specific out strategy for the stocks I purchase. So this is my strategy, create a diverse portfolio with different sector and long and short term stocks. My criteria for purchasing a stock from now on will be based on the support and resistence line strategy.

                            So I have just purchased 2000 shares of Sirius satelite radio (SIRI) @ $2.43. This will be a short term stock.
                            sigpic

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                            • #74
                              Re: TG Fantasy Stock Market League

                              Damonte purchased an very unreasonably large quantity of an undervalued regional bank (FITB) a on monday at about 19.10/share. Two days later the annual shareholder meeting was convened and outlook was bright due to a lack of involvement in the sub-prime market and a focus on the core business of FTPS (Financial Transaction Processing Services).

                              Currently, FITB is up 12.5%. Speculation seems reasonable it may gain another 10% to 20% still.

                              "Everytime I read your posts I do it with Morgan Freeman's voice in my head as if he is narrating your life" - Aimed

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                              • #75
                                Re: TG Fantasy Stock Market League

                                Originally posted by SmokingTarpan View Post
                                Just curious leejo, are you watching our portfolios through the trade tool somehow? Are we supposed to be sending in reports of how we're doing? Or did I just miss a post somewhere?

                                Although I suppose you could just be plugging in the stock he bought and doing the math yourself...
                                When bkelly posted that he had bought so many of the etf's he'd bought I started a portfolio in yahoo! finance to keep an eye on how they're doing. It's just so completely opposite of my view that I wanted to keep an eye on it. I'm not doing that generally, though.

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