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  • Terror Threat Overblown Says CIA Analyst

    Overstating Our Fears

    Sen. John McCain has repeatedly characterized the threat of "radical Islamic extremism" as "the absolute gravest threat . . . that we're in against." Before we simply accept this, we need to examine the nature of the terrorist threat facing our country. If we do so, we will see how we have allowed the specter of that threat to distort our lives and take our treasure.

    The "Global War on Terror" has conjured the image of terrorists behind every bush, the bushes themselves burning and an angry god inciting its faithful to religious war. We have been called to arms, built fences, and compromised our laws and the practices that define us as a nation. The administration has focused on pursuing terrorists and countering an imminent and terrifying threat. Thousands of Americans have died as a result, as have tens of thousands of foreigners.

    The inclination to trust our leaders when they warn of danger is compelling, particularly when the specters of mushroom clouds and jihadists haunt every debate. McCain, accepting this view of the threats, pledges to continue the Bush administration's policy of few distinctions but ruthless actions.

    I spent 23 years in the CIA. I drafted or was involved in many of the government's most senior assessments of the threats facing our country. I have devoted years to understanding and combating the jihadist threat.

    We rightly honor as heroes those who serve our nation and offer their lives to protect ours. We all "support the troops." Yet the first step for any commander is to understand the enemy. The next commander in chief should base his counterterrorism policies on the following realities:

    We do not face a global jihadist "movement" but a series of disparate ethnic and religious conflicts involving Muslim populations, each of which remains fundamentally regional in nature and almost all of which long predate the existence of al-Qaeda.

    Osama bin Laden and his disciples are small men and secondary threats whose shadows are made large by our fears. Al-Qaeda is the only global jihadist organization and is the only Islamic terrorist organization that targets the U.S. homeland. Al-Qaeda remains capable of striking here and is plotting from its redoubt in Waziristan, Pakistan. The organization, however, has only a handful of individuals capable of planning, organizing and leading a terrorist operation. Al-Qaeda threatens to use chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons, but its capabilities are far inferior to its desires. Even the "loose nuke" threat, whose consequences would be horrific, has a very low probability. For the medium term, any attack is overwhelmingly likely to consist of creative uses of conventional explosives.

    No other Islamic-based terrorist organization, from Mindanao to the Bekaa Valley to the Sahel, targets the U.S. homeland, is part of a "global jihadist movement" or has more than passing contact with al-Qaeda. These groups do and will, however, identify themselves with global jihadist rhetoric and may bandy the bogey-phrase of "al-Qaeda." They are motivated by hostility toward the West and fear of the irresistible changes that education, trade, and economic and social development are causing in their cultures. These regional terrorist organizations may target U.S. interests or persons in the groups' historic areas of interest and operations. None of these groups is likely to succeed in seizing power or in destabilizing the societies they attack, though they may succeed in killing numerous people through sporadic attacks such as the Madrid train bombings.

    There are and will continue to be small numbers of Muslims in certain Western countries -- in the dozens, perhaps -- who seek to commit terrorist acts, along the lines of the British citizens behind the 2005 London bus bombings. Some may have irregular contact with al-Qaeda central in Waziristan; more will act as free agents for their imagined cause. They represent an Islamic-tinged version of the anarchists of the late 19th century: dupes of "true belief," the flotsam of revolutionary cultural change and destruction in Islam, and of personal anomie. We need to catch and neutralize these people. But they do not represent a global movement or a global threat.

    The threat from Islamic terrorism is no larger now than it was before Sept. 11, 2001. Islamic societies the world over are in turmoil and will continue for years to produce small numbers of dedicated killers, whom we must stop. U.S. and allied intelligence do a good job at that; these efforts, however, will never succeed in neutralizing every terrorist, everywhere.

    Why are these views so starkly at odds with what the Bush administration has said since the beginning of the "Global War on Terror"? This administration has heard what it has wished to hear, pressured the intelligence community to verify preconceptions, undermined or sidetracked opposing voices, and both instituted and been victim of procedures that guaranteed that the slightest terrorist threat reporting would receive disproportionate weight -- thereby comforting the administration's preconceptions and policy inclinations.

    We must not delude ourselves about the nature of the terrorist threat to our country. We must not take fright at the specter our leaders have exaggerated. In fact, we must see jihadists for the small, lethal, disjointed and miserable opponents that they are.

    The writer was a member of the CIA's Clandestine Service for 23 years and retired in March 2007 as deputy national intelligence officer for transnational threats.
    www washingtonpost com /wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/11/AR2008071102710.html

    Even more credence to the idea that this whole war on terror is simply a fabricated excuse to grant even more power to our "government" in order to allow them to target everyone and anyone they wish as a terrorist.

  • #2
    Re: Terror Threat Overblown Says CIA Analyst

    RandomGuy, my mistake, i got a bit carried away, yes it is interesting that a CIA Analyst has stated his opinion, but the Terror Threat level is a way in my eyes for all agencies to be on the same page.


    I have gotten a bit carried away with some of these last few posts, my apologies if i have hurt anyone's feelings.
    Last edited by Delta*RandyShugart*; 07-16-2008, 06:14 PM.
    Randy = Ace ! - Warlab
    Level II Volunteer FireFighter
    Level I HazMat Technician
    NYS EMT-B
    Town of Mamaroneck Fire Dept.

    sigpic




    Bring On Project Reality 1.0!!!
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    Apophis - "TG was created to cater to a VERY specific type of gamer rather than trying to appeal to the greater gaming population.
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    • #3
      Re: Terror Threat Overblown Says CIA Analyst

      Originally posted by Delta*RandyShugart* View Post
      dude what is your problem? honestly......its not a fabricated excuse.....you need to look in the mirror....i get it you don't like our government, and if you don't like it, move out of the country......i'm sick of these types of threads popping up, with the same BS all the time....i wonder how long it took you to find this article when you googled "government has too much control and terror level is a lie"
      If you aren't going to make an argument or you don't think it's worth your time that's fine but please save the "you are a poopiehead" stuff.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Terror Threat Overblown Says CIA Analyst

        Originally posted by Delta*RandyShugart* View Post
        dude what is your problem? honestly......its not a fabricated excuse.....you need to look in the mirror....i get it you don't like our government, and if you don't like it, move out of the country......i'm sick of these types of threads popping up, with the same BS all the time....i wonder how long it took you to find this article when you googled "government has too much control and terror level is a lie"
        I have an oily scalp, I guess thats my problem. I do look in the mirror, in fact I looked in the mirror 30 minutes ago. I need to shave.


        on a serious note:

        Since when does having complete distrust of our government equate with not liking our country? I love our country, but I hate the criminal organization you call our government. And I am entitled to my beliefs and you yours. None of this has anything to do with whether or not you should whine about how you don't like to see these types of threads. No one forces you to read them.

        "its not a fabricated excuse.. you need to look in the mirror"

        If you say so. But at least provide something to back up your statement. Considering you don't work for the CIA (or do you?) I'll take your word with several grains of salt.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Terror Threat Overblown Says CIA Analyst

          Originally posted by angrysniper View Post
          I have an oily scalp, I guess thats my problem. I do look in the mirror, in fact I looked in the mirror 30 minutes ago. I need to shave.


          on a serious note:

          Since when does having complete distrust of our government equate with not liking our country? I love our country, but I hate the criminal organization you call our government. And I am entitled to my beliefs and you yours. None of this has anything to do with whether or not you should whine about how you don't like to see these types of threads. No one forces you to read them.

          "its not a fabricated excuse.. you need to look in the mirror"

          If you say so. But at least provide something to back up your statement. Considering you don't work for the CIA (or do you?) I'll take your word with several grains of salt.
          I apologize for snapping at you, i will plan on editing my post even though i have been quoted.

          I will cool off and provide some examples at a later date.
          Randy = Ace ! - Warlab
          Level II Volunteer FireFighter
          Level I HazMat Technician
          NYS EMT-B
          Town of Mamaroneck Fire Dept.

          sigpic




          Bring On Project Reality 1.0!!!
          RSS Feeds:Bamboo | | 9/11 - Never Forget |
          Apophis - "TG was created to cater to a VERY specific type of gamer rather than trying to appeal to the greater gaming population.
          Tactical Gamer is not mainstream.
          We are not trying to attract mainstream gamers."

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Terror Threat Overblown Says CIA Analyst

            Does this mean we trust the word of CIA analysts now? Or just when they agree with us?
            ---
            Sources say the Dow Jones' decline is directly related to Dethklok front-man Nathan Explosion's constant deleting of potential new albums.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Terror Threat Overblown Says CIA Analyst

              Originally posted by angrysniper View Post
              I have an oily scalp, I guess thats my problem. I do look in the mirror, in fact I looked in the mirror 30 minutes ago. I need to shave.


              on a serious note:

              Since when does having complete distrust of our government equate with not liking our country? I love our country, but I hate the criminal organization you call our government. And I am entitled to my beliefs and you yours. None of this has anything to do with whether or not you should whine about how you don't like to see these types of threads. No one forces you to read them.

              "its not a fabricated excuse.. you need to look in the mirror"

              If you say so. But at least provide something to back up your statement. Considering you don't work for the CIA (or do you?) I'll take your word with several grains of salt.
              Exact same opinion, although I do gotta say you remind me of a old friend of mine; quick Qs: how old are you and what kind of backround you come from if you don't mind answering?
              "A Veteran is someone who , at one point in their life, wrote a blank check made payable to
              'The United states of America' for an amount of 'upto and including my life'. That is honor, and there are way to many people in this country who no longer understand it."-Author Unknown

              "I got kicked out of barnes and noble once for moving all the bibles into the fiction section" -Any.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Terror Threat Overblown Says CIA Analyst

                Originally posted by Fenian420 View Post
                Exact same opinion, although I do gotta say you remind me of a old friend of mine; quick Qs: how old are you and what kind of backround you come from if you don't mind answering?
                I'm 18. And what do you mean by background? Family wise?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Terror Threat Overblown Says CIA Analyst

                  Nah, thought you were slightly older, but heritage wise and type of stuff you get into but nvm anymore,
                  "A Veteran is someone who , at one point in their life, wrote a blank check made payable to
                  'The United states of America' for an amount of 'upto and including my life'. That is honor, and there are way to many people in this country who no longer understand it."-Author Unknown

                  "I got kicked out of barnes and noble once for moving all the bibles into the fiction section" -Any.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Terror Threat Overblown Says CIA Analyst

                    Originally posted by Switchcraft View Post
                    Does this mean we trust the word of CIA analysts now? Or just when they agree with us?
                    Other than Bush in the cases of 9/11 and the Iraq invasion, who doesn't listen to CIA analysts? I'm curious what you are referring to.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Terror Threat Overblown Says CIA Analyst

                      Originally posted by angrysniper View Post
                      www washingtonpost com /wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/11/AR2008071102710.html
                      guys sorry to break it to you, but there was a typo when this was written, terror threat, and words associated with it, and how it has been overblown should have been the words "Global Warming" It was a mistake, and now the CIA just wanted to let you all know of its mistake.
                      Randy = Ace ! - Warlab
                      Level II Volunteer FireFighter
                      Level I HazMat Technician
                      NYS EMT-B
                      Town of Mamaroneck Fire Dept.

                      sigpic




                      Bring On Project Reality 1.0!!!
                      RSS Feeds:Bamboo | | 9/11 - Never Forget |
                      Apophis - "TG was created to cater to a VERY specific type of gamer rather than trying to appeal to the greater gaming population.
                      Tactical Gamer is not mainstream.
                      We are not trying to attract mainstream gamers."

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Terror Threat Overblown Says CIA Analyst

                        Excellent article.

                        We do not face a global jihadist "movement" but a series of disparate ethnic and religious conflicts involving Muslim populations, each of which remains fundamentally regional in nature and almost all of which long predate the existence of al-Qaeda.

                        ...

                        Al-Qaeda is the only global jihadist organization and is the only Islamic terrorist organization that targets the U.S. homeland. Al-Qaeda remains capable of striking here and is plotting from its redoubt in Waziristan, Pakistan. The organization, however, has only a handful of individuals capable of planning, organizing and leading a terrorist operation.
                        The fact that our politicians may doubt the above quoted portions is pathetic. The fact that Bin Laden still roams free is pathetic.
                        A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

                        "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Terror Threat Overblown Says CIA Analyst

                          Originally posted by xTYBALTx View Post
                          Excellent article.



                          The fact that our politicians may doubt the above quoted portions is pathetic. The fact that Bin Laden still roams free is pathetic.
                          If he roams free, and if hes still alive, its simply because they don't want to catch him. Hes the big bad wolf. I shudder to think that people honestly believe that we couldn't find him if we wanted to. We have satellites that can read text off of a newspaper, and see through roofs into houses, and we can't find him? Sure. Ever heard of remote viewing?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Terror Threat Overblown Says CIA Analyst

                            Originally posted by angrysniper View Post
                            Ever heard of remote viewing?
                            Why yes, I believe that subject comes up frequently on Coast-to-Coast-AM. An excellent show for entertainment purposes. Your point?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Terror Threat Overblown Says CIA Analyst

                              Originally posted by Kerostasis View Post
                              Why yes, I believe that subject comes up frequently on Coast-to-Coast-AM. An excellent show for entertainment purposes. Your point?
                              Well despite the fact that the CIA terminated their remote viewing program in the 90s, you can be sure it is still actively used in the intelligence and military community. My point is, they have the means available to them to locate anyone they want to, there is nothing stopping us from finding him if he is still alive.

                              (if you're unaware of the history of remote viewing.. I suggest you pick up the books Psychic Warrior by David Moorehouse and/or PSI Spies: the true story of america's psychic warfare program by Jim Marrs)

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