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  • The odds of dying

    in case you were all curious, or looking for some humor in death:

    Randy = Ace ! - Warlab
    Level II Volunteer FireFighter
    Level I HazMat Technician
    NYS EMT-B
    Town of Mamaroneck Fire Dept.

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  • #2
    Re: The odds of dying

    I'm gunning for fireworks discharge.
    The art of war is simple enough. Find out where your enemy is. Get at him as soon as you can. Strike him as hard as you can, and keep moving.



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    #83 of 213 things you cannot do in the army.
    83. Must not start any SITREP (Situation Report) with "I recently had an experience I just had to write you about...."

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    • #3
      Re: The odds of dying

      Crazy seeing suicide way up there!

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      • #4
        Re: The odds of dying

        Interesting.


        POE2 Developer

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        • #5
          Re: The odds of dying

          I have come close to accidental electrocution a few times...LOL!



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          • #6
            Re: The odds of dying

            I'd like to see the raw data for this chart considering everything I've read assumes you're more than twice as likely to die from drowning than firearms related assault. Electrocution is also much higher on the list based on older data as well. Is this a world-wide sampling of data? Because that would sway the statistics by a large margin.

            Further, my chances of dying in a motorcycle accident rate at around 0% considering I don't own or operate one.

            I seriously doubt the validity of this chart the more I look at it. The chance of getting hit by lightning is more around 1 in ~3 million. (80 deaths a year, 250 million people in America).

            Funny chart, but worthless.

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            • #7
              Re: The odds of dying

              Originally posted by TheFeniX View Post
              I seriously doubt the validity of this chart the more I look at it. The chance of getting hit by lightning is more around 1 in ~3 million. (80 deaths a year, 250 million people in America).
              If you multiply by the average lifetime it works out to roughly what the chart says.

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              • #8
                Re: The odds of dying

                The chart's closer than you think, Fenix. 80 deaths out of 300 million (we passed 250 a LONG time ago) is the rate per year, but this chart records the total chance of dying EVER. And as it correctly notes, your total chances of dying are 100%. ;)

                If you extrapolate out those 80 deaths per year across the average lifespan in the US, somewhere around 75 years, then the math works out pretty close to what they have there. I can't attest to the accuracy of any of the data they use, but its at least in the right ball park.

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                • #9
                  Re: The odds of dying

                  i found the chart at www.myconfinedspace.com
                  Randy = Ace ! - Warlab
                  Level II Volunteer FireFighter
                  Level I HazMat Technician
                  NYS EMT-B
                  Town of Mamaroneck Fire Dept.

                  sigpic




                  Bring On Project Reality 1.0!!!
                  RSS Feeds:Bamboo | | 9/11 - Never Forget |
                  Apophis - "TG was created to cater to a VERY specific type of gamer rather than trying to appeal to the greater gaming population.
                  Tactical Gamer is not mainstream.
                  We are not trying to attract mainstream gamers."

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: The odds of dying

                    Wasn't that in National Geographic.
                    |TG-6th|SirNerd

                    My Resume includes Pirate, Mercenary, and a Devil Dog, what else do you want.

                    Pain is Inevitable, Suffering is Optional.

                    When you can't run anymore, you crawl and when you can't do that, you find someone to carry you.

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                    • #11
                      Re: The odds of dying

                      There are over 6 billion people who have yet to die!

                      DaBrit

                      By Any Means
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                      • #12
                        Re: The odds of dying

                        I have a better chance of being legally executed than dying by lightning, flood or earthquake.

                        I find that curious.
                        Iím not racists, I have republican friends. Radio show host.
                        - "The essence of tyranny is the denial of complexity". -Jacob Burkhardt
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                        • #13
                          Re: The odds of dying

                          Originally posted by El_Gringo_Grande View Post
                          I have a better chance of being legally executed than dying by lightning, flood or earthquake.

                          I find that curious.
                          Depends on where you live and what they mean by "legal"
                          |TG-6th|SirNerd

                          My Resume includes Pirate, Mercenary, and a Devil Dog, what else do you want.

                          Pain is Inevitable, Suffering is Optional.

                          When you can't run anymore, you crawl and when you can't do that, you find someone to carry you.

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                          • #14
                            Re: The odds of dying

                            Originally posted by Sir-Nerd View Post
                            Wasn't that in National Geographic.
                            theres a good chance, the website i posted is a site that people post random pictures, some are quite funny etc.....if u have a chance check it out.

                            I didn't see getting maimed by a tornado, guess ill have to take my chances when i drive out to the midwest later this week.
                            Randy = Ace ! - Warlab
                            Level II Volunteer FireFighter
                            Level I HazMat Technician
                            NYS EMT-B
                            Town of Mamaroneck Fire Dept.

                            sigpic




                            Bring On Project Reality 1.0!!!
                            RSS Feeds:Bamboo | | 9/11 - Never Forget |
                            Apophis - "TG was created to cater to a VERY specific type of gamer rather than trying to appeal to the greater gaming population.
                            Tactical Gamer is not mainstream.
                            We are not trying to attract mainstream gamers."

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: The odds of dying

                              When people complain that statistics can be manipulated to support any conclusion without being technically wrong, they are touching upon one of the basic problems in probability theory: the reference class problem. In short, the reference class problem is a problem for just about every interpretation of probability that we, the lay, and scientists currently use. The one most of you guys are probably familiar with is the frequentist theory of probability. Some of you guys even make use of it in this thread to question the chart.

                              A frequentist theory of probability is one that holds that the probability of X is a function of the frequency of X-type events to Y-type events. In other words, a probability is a relative frequency of some kind of event to a reference class of events. For example, made free throw shots to free throw shots. In sports we often make use of this interpretation of probability by keeping track of statistics and inferring the likelihood that LeBron James, say, will make a particular free throw. We do this by dividing his past free throw successes by his past free throw attempts. There are a number of proposed ways to modify this basic account, such as considering X-type events within an infinite class of hypothetical Y-type events instead of just considering actual X-type events out of actual finite Y-type events. In any case, so long as it is some version of the frequentist theory, the reference class problem rears its head.

                              The reference class problem is basically this: There are many (infinite, in fact) reference classes for any X-type event, and there is no criteria to pick out the single reference class that gives the correct probability. Along with the theory we need two assumptions to set the problem up. First, we assume that it is the nature of chance that for any event we have in mind there is a single probability that it will or will not come about. In other words, for any event, it cannot be that it has both a 20% probability and a 75% probability of coming about. This is self-evident. And, second, there is no "best" reference class to pick. In the spirit of the death chart, let's consider a simple "odds of dying in a motor vehicle accident" as an example:

                              Suppose we are frequentist theorists of probability and we ask ourselves the question, "what are the chances that we'll die in a car crash today?" Since we assume that there must be a single numerical figure that represents the probability that we'll die in a car crash today, we must assume that there is a single "correct" reference class, which gives us that figure. A first thought is to consider the number of total car crashes with resulting deaths in the world in the class of the number of times cars have been driven. That gives us one figure. But, on reflection, we notice that we drive in the US where drivers are comparably better than in many other parts of the world. So, why should their crashes and deaths be relevant to the chances of our dying in a car crash today? Perhaps we should consider total car crashes with resulting deaths in the US among the class of the number of times cars have been driven in the US. This gives us another figure. On more reflection, we think to ourselves, "wait, I drive a very safe car with good crash test ratings. Why should I consider crashes and deaths that happened in dangerous cars?" We could now consider the number of car crashes with resulting deaths in cars with similar crash test ratings to ours in the class of the number of times those cars were driven, or the number of car crashes with resulting deaths in cars that are the same exact model as ours in the class of the number of times those cars were driven, or the number of car crashes with resulting deaths in cars with similar crash test ratings to ours in the US in the class of the number of times those cars were driven, and so on. Those would each give us different figures. This could go on and on. We could consider these events relative to certain days, per hour, with only "safe driver" labels on their insurance contracts, and so on.

                              Although it is sometimes intuitive that a particular reference class is wrong to consider as giving us the "correct" probability for some event, there are a multitude of reference classes that appear perfectly fine and intuitive. Unfortunately, they cannot all give us the correct answer to the question, "what are the chances that we'll die in a car crash today?" As hard as scientists, probability theorists, and philosophers have tried, nobody has found any good criteria for determining which is the "correct" reference class to use. So, since there are so many intuitively acceptable reference classes, shady people will use that to their advantage, choosing certain classes that provide figures to support their arguments. This is how statistics can be manipulated to support just about any conclusion without being technically wrong.

                              Going back to our death chart above. It states that there is a 1 in 84 chance of dying in a car accident, and it states that there is a 1 in 5051 chance of dying in an air/space accident. How did the creators of the chart arrive at these numbers? I'm sure we've all heard the statement that flying is much safer than driving. And, many statistics cited appear to support that. Is this just propoganda based on manipulated statistics by airlines, perhaps something said to people to lessen anxiety over flight, or is it true? Consider this article for example: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...47/ai_86504189 Is it true? According to this, you are 24 times more likely to die in a car accident than an airplane accident. But, this is just one way of construing the statistics. To get his figures, author compares accidents resulting in deaths by driving per mile versus accidents resulting in deaths by plane per hour and per departure. In Freakonomics, Levitt and Dubner compare each per hour and come to the conclusion that they're about the same and that conventional wisdom is wrong.

                              "If you are taking a trip and have the choice of driving or flying, you might wish to consider to consider the per-hour death rate of driving versus flying. It is true that many more people die in the United States each year in motor vehicle accidents (roughly forty thousand) than in airplane crashes (fewer than one thousand). But it is also true that most people spend a lot more time in cars than in airplanes. (More people die even in boating accidents each year than in airplane crashes; as we saw with swimming pools versus guns, water is a lot more dangerous than most people think.) The per-hour death rate of driving versus flying, however, is about equal." (Freakonomics)
                              These guys are using different reference classes to calculate the probabilities they want to compare. They can't both be right, since there can only be one probability of your dying in a car crash. It can't both be less likely than dying in a plane and the same likelihood! But, the problem is that we have no good criteria for determining who's right and who's wrong. I take this to be evidence that the frequentist theory of probability cannot be correct. But, judge for yourselves.

                              For a more sophisticated articulation of the reference class problem, see Alan Hajek's "The Reference Problem is Your Problem Too," http://philrsss.anu.edu.au/people-de...roblem_too.pdf Hajek shows that the reference class problem isn't isolated to frequentist theories of probability. It affects, in some form or other, all of the accounts that were and are popular at some time.
                              Last edited by sordavie; 08-12-2008, 02:15 PM. Reason: grammar

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