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100k Civilians Killed In Iraq

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  • 100k Civilians Killed In Iraq

    This seems to be a commonly-cited number by anti-war activists. A friend sent me a link to this article from 2004:

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0411/S00025.htm

    The article cites a John Hopkins study published in The Lancet:

    http://www.thelancet.com/journals/la...74412/abstract

    An update to the estimate was published in 2006:

    http://www.thelancet.com/journals/la...94919/abstract

    (Free registration required to read full text.)

    The deaths are attributed to coalition forces, but I'm not sure if insurgent actions are lumped into that. (Which would obviously be unfair.) That seems like a pretty large amount of collateral damage given the accuracy of today's weapons. Any idea what to make of this?
    Dude, seriously, WHAT handkerchief?

    snooggums' density principal: "The more dense a population, the more dense a population."

    Iliana: "You're a great friend but if we're ever chased by zombies I'm tripping you."

  • #2
    Re: 100k Civilians Killed In Iraq

    Originally posted by ScratchMonkey View Post
    This seems to be a commonly-cited number by anti-war activists. A friend sent me a link to this article from 2004:

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0411/S00025.htm

    The article cites a John Hopkins study published in The Lancet:

    http://www.thelancet.com/journals/la...74412/abstract

    An update to the estimate was published in 2006:

    http://www.thelancet.com/journals/la...94919/abstract

    (Free registration required to read full text.)

    The deaths are attributed to coalition forces, but I'm not sure if insurgent actions are lumped into that. (Which would obviously be unfair.) That seems like a pretty large amount of collateral damage given the accuracy of today's weapons. Any idea what to make of this?
    Population reduction?

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: 100k Civilians Killed In Iraq

      Originally posted by ScratchMonkey View Post
      The deaths are attributed to coalition forces, but I'm not sure if insurgent actions are lumped into that. (Which would obviously be unfair.)
      It's been a long time since I've had to wade through those reports, but last I checked the lancet report, the only requirement for "causality" by coalition forces was that the death rate was higher after the invasion than it was before the invasion. Actual presence of coalition gunfire was not required. By that fairly loose measure, it's not unreasonable to come up with 100k; Iraq has seen enough self-inflicted violence in the last few years that they well might have killed off 100k of their own citizens.

      There's another website called I think Iraqbodycount.com that actually makes some effort to keep track of coalition inflicted deaths vs locally inflicted deaths, and they come up with a much lower number.

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      • #4
        Re: 100k Civilians Killed In Iraq

        Gotta be willing to cause pain and suffering to civilians if you want to win a war.

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        • #5
          Re: 100k Civilians Killed In Iraq

          Originally posted by Kerostasis View Post
          There's another website called I think Iraqbodycount.com that actually makes some effort to keep track of coalition inflicted deaths vs locally inflicted deaths, and they come up with a much lower number.
          Thanks, found it:

          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_Body_Count_project
          http://www.iraqbodycount.org/

          I also found this one:

          http://icasualties.org/oif/
          Dude, seriously, WHAT handkerchief?

          snooggums' density principal: "The more dense a population, the more dense a population."

          Iliana: "You're a great friend but if we're ever chased by zombies I'm tripping you."

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: 100k Civilians Killed In Iraq

            From the wiki page:

            Who did the killing?

            * 37%. US-led forces killed 37% of civilian victims.
            * 9%. Anti-occupation forces/insurgents killed 9% of civilian victims.
            * 36%. Post-invasion criminal violence accounted for 36% of all deaths.
            * 11%. Unknown agents (11%).
            I'm still surprised that the US accounts for so high a number.

            On this page the criminal killings are explained by the power vacuum left behind after removing the strong central government:

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualt...tical_violence

            Did we see similar violence after the fall of Hitler? The other similar incident that comes to mind is the LA Rodney King riots, but that was mitigated partly by armed citizens camping on top of their stores.
            Dude, seriously, WHAT handkerchief?

            snooggums' density principal: "The more dense a population, the more dense a population."

            Iliana: "You're a great friend but if we're ever chased by zombies I'm tripping you."

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: 100k Civilians Killed In Iraq

              Originally posted by sordavie View Post
              Gotta be willing to cause pain and suffering to civilians if you want to win a war.
              So winning was caused by the pain and suffering, or the pain and suffering was an unfortunate (and possibly partially avoidable) cost?
              Dude, seriously, WHAT handkerchief?

              snooggums' density principal: "The more dense a population, the more dense a population."

              Iliana: "You're a great friend but if we're ever chased by zombies I'm tripping you."

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: 100k Civilians Killed In Iraq

                The Lancet... didn't they once estimate over 650,000 before being disproven by multiple researchers for their questionable methods? I believed I saved the National Journal article on it. I'll scan it if it's still in my file. I am not sure I'd take their data with any more than a grain of salt.
                "No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country.
                He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country."

                - Attributed to General George Patton, Jr.

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                • #9
                  Re: 100k Civilians Killed In Iraq

                  Don't forget that a 'casualty' by definition doesn't mean dead. If I sprained my ankle while jumping out of a Hummvee, that'd make me a casualty.

                  Not sure if that's applicable, but don't be deceived. If reports are coming from the military and they say "25 civilian casualties", that could be one dead guy and 24 people with shrapnel wounds.

                  It's also difficult to figure out what exactly is a CIVILIAN. Kill an insurgent, take away his AK, and bam, he looks like a dead civvy. They don't exactly wear uniforms. This was a common sort of 'terror tactic' media-wise used, as the Iraqis would claim 100 civilians killed in a shootout, where the marines who were there are saying that there were 100 guys with guns all over the place.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: 100k Civilians Killed In Iraq

                    Originally posted by ScratchMonkey View Post
                    So winning was caused by the pain and suffering, or the pain and suffering was an unfortunate (and possibly partially avoidable) cost?
                    Often pain and suffering causes the winning on the part of an aggressor. Look at the history of warfare. But, that said, this isn't always the case. That's why I said an aggressor must be willing to cause such pain and suffering to civilians to win a war. They may not have to do it, but they have to be willing to go to that length.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: 100k Civilians Killed In Iraq

                      Originally posted by Uranium - 235 View Post
                      If reports are coming from the military and they say "25 civilian casualties", that could be one dead guy and 24 people with shrapnel wounds.
                      And who doesn't love some shrapnel wounds?
                      Iím not racists, I have republican friends. Radio show host.
                      - "The essence of tyranny is the denial of complexity". -Jacob Burkhardt
                      - "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" - Emerson
                      - "People should not be afraid of it's government, government should be afraid of it's People." - Line from V for Vendetta
                      - If software were as unreliable as economic theory, there wouldn't be a plane made of anything other than paper that could get off the ground. Jim Fawcette
                      - "Let me now state what seems to me the decisive objection to any conservatism which deserves to be called such. It is that by its very nature it cannot offer an alternative to the direction in which we are moving." -Friedrich Hayek
                      - "Don't waist your time on me your already the voice inside my head." Blink 182 to my wife

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                      • #12
                        Re: 100k Civilians Killed In Iraq

                        Why is this at all surprising? To me it is surprisingly low for a region that has been at war for more than six years.

                        War exacts its highest price on the civilian population. While the U.S. and other national armed forces go to great lengths to prevent civilian casualties, they will never escape this terrible truth.

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                        • #13
                          Re: 100k Civilians Killed In Iraq

                          Originally posted by Uranium - 235 View Post
                          Don't forget that a 'casualty' by definition doesn't mean dead. If I sprained my ankle while jumping out of a Hummvee, that'd make me a casualty.
                          Our loader got listed as a casualty for spraining his knee while jumping down from our tank during desert shield. Needless to say he didn't take a purple heart for that one as if so he would be called daily even today to be razzed about it. :)

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                          • #14
                            Re: 100k Civilians Killed In Iraq

                            Honestly. I'm not trying to be mean. But who (From a statistical standpoint. So Don't misunderstand me) keeps track? Does someone run around and actually attempt to keep tabs on who dies and from what? Seems more like the anti-war guys trying to scare more people in to something. What that something is, I've no idea. But they just picked a number that seems big. Compare 90,000 to 100,000. 100k just has more weight behind it. Seems that they're just trying to blow things out of proportion to make their reasoning sound better.
                            Slow is smooth, smooth is fast, fast is deadly.

                            Blank stares of broken men...

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                            • #15
                              Re: 100k Civilians Killed In Iraq

                              Originally posted by sordavie View Post
                              Gotta be willing to cause pain and suffering to civilians if you want to win a war.
                              What war? Who are we at war with?

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