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  • Election Watch -- predictions, polls, and results

    We've gotta have some place to concentrate results, right? Ok, maybe not, but at least we can stack our predictions here and compare them to the actual results later tonight.

    My prediction is that the numbers will be much closer than the polls show at the moment, but Obama will win by a small margin, like 1 or 2%. I'd give McCain about a 30% chance to pull off a last minute upset and win anyway. Third-party showing is hard to predict, I have no idea if general dislike of our candidates will translate to more or less votes for 3rd parties.

    So, what's your prediction?

    Edit: For the sake of having numbers for comparison, here's my official numeric prediction: 49% Obama, 48% McCain, 3% Other.
    Last edited by Kerostasis; 11-04-2008, 12:59 PM.

  • #2
    Re: Election Watch -- predictions, polls, and results

    My hope is that McCain pulls this one out.

    That being said, this one is really hard to predict. First of all, the exit polling doesn't always mean *#(@. In the Bush v. Kerry race, the media was professing Kerry had one by something like a 65 to 35 percent spread, before the polls even opened election day, based on exit poll data. Again, MSNBC, CNN, etc. were nearly dropping the balloons and shooting off the confetti for Obama's win while I was getting ready for work at O'dark thirty this morning. But this time around, there's factors involved that are hard to judge. Really old guy versus younger guy, do people put much stock in that? First black candidate for President, how much will that ultimately factor into it?

    I'm going to predict that rationale will overcome hoopla and McCain will win. And since I'm such a superstitious person, I'm now going to knock on wood, and whatever else I can come up with to avoid jinxing his chances with my prediction. ;-)
    |TG-55| Infantry Division - Former Captain


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    • #3
      Re: Election Watch -- predictions, polls, and results

      What I found odd was that in Oklahoma City some of the polling places had really long lines. This in a state where the races are pretty much already decided.
      Iím not racists, I have republican friends. Radio show host.
      - "The essence of tyranny is the denial of complexity". -Jacob Burkhardt
      - "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" - Emerson
      - "People should not be afraid of it's government, government should be afraid of it's People." - Line from V for Vendetta
      - If software were as unreliable as economic theory, there wouldn't be a plane made of anything other than paper that could get off the ground. Jim Fawcette
      - "Let me now state what seems to me the decisive objection to any conservatism which deserves to be called such. It is that by its very nature it cannot offer an alternative to the direction in which we are moving." -Friedrich Hayek
      - "Don't waist your time on me your already the voice inside my head." Blink 182 to my wife

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Election Watch -- predictions, polls, and results

        Election Viewer's Guide:

        Election Day. And perhaps the best way to gauge how McCain and Obama are faring is by following the poll closing times for key states. The first closing times come at 7:00 pm ET for Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina, and Virginia. In particular, if Virginia is called early for Obama, that will be a sign of a possible big night for the Democrats. But if there isnít an early call, that could be some welcome news for McCain. While Georgia and South Carolina arenít considered true battleground states, they could also signal how the night is going; in short, these are the landslide indicators: If theyíre too close too call early in the night, that will tell us that African-American turnout was HUGE.

        The next batch of poll closings comes at 7:30 pm ET, for North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. At 8:00 pm ET, polls officially close in Florida (although for most of the state, itís actually 7:00 pm ET), Missouri, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. If Pennsylvania is called early for Obama, that would be a severe blow to McCain and would force him to hang on to virtually every state that Bush carried in 2004. But keep an eye on the four states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. If Obama wins just two out of the four, it becomes nearly impossible for McCain to get to 270 -- even if he wins Pennsylvania. And if Virginia is called for Obama, then it's down to the Iron Triangle of survival for McCain: Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. Add any one of those three to Virginia and it's basically checkmate.

        Read More: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archi...4/1633024.aspx


        PR Testing Team: Serious Business.

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        • #5
          Re: Election Watch -- predictions, polls, and results

          Obama wins Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location:

          As usual, residents of tiny Dixville Notch in New Hampshire began the voting at midnight, and Obama came out ahead -- the first Democrat to do so since 1968. The New Hampshire Union Leader: “The town, home to around 75 residents, began voting at the stroke of midnight. The final tally was 15 votes for Sen. Barack Obama and six votes for Sen. John McCain. Dixville Notch has opened its polls shortly after midnight each Election Day since 1960, drawing national media attention for being the first place in the country to make its presidential preferences known. The last Democrat it picked was Hubert Humphrey over Richard Nixon in 1968. President Bush won the town in a landslide in the past two elections: He captured 73 percent of the vote in 2004 (19 residents picked Bush while six preferred Sen. John Kerry), and secured 80 percent of the vote in 2000 (21 votes for Bush, five votes for Al Gore).” Also in New Hampshire, “Hart's Location reported 17 votes for Obama, 10 for McCain, and two for write-in Ron Paul. Independent Ralph Nader was on both towns' ballots, but got no votes."


          PR Testing Team: Serious Business.

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          • #6
            Re: Election Watch -- predictions, polls, and results

            No no, you're doing it wrong. You're supposed to give us YOUR prediction here, not report some outsider's advice on which exit polls are the most meaningful.

            That way when the exit polls are completely different from what you said, we can laugh at you. ;)

            (Actually, we're probably too polite to do that here. But we'll be thinking about it!)

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Election Watch -- predictions, polls, and results

              I trust the vegas odds. The vegas odds are paying 13-2 McCain and 1-12 Obama. For thos of you that dont understand what that means, its saying that if you bet 100 bucks on mccain, it pays out $750 if he wins. If you put the same 100 bucks on obama, you'd only get $108.33. In other words, Obama is what they like to call a "sure thing". Now in sports betting, you can never have an accurate predictor because the conditions change from day to day. But with a presidential election, you have 11 months to see how its gonna shape up.

              Bottom line: Obama wins. Gonna happen. You may like it, you may not, but thats pretty much how it rolls.

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              • #8
                Re: Election Watch -- predictions, polls, and results

                Obama wins 53% of popular to McCain's 44% (rest 3rd party)
                Obama wins electoral vote 301 to 237

                Kansas EC votes go to McCain, McCain loses Arizona.

                My vote for president is worthless because I live in KS and the EC votes have gone Republican for all but one election in the last 50 years (and that was when the entire country -1 state went for that candidate). It doesn't matter which side or third party I vote for, at least I can vote for local positions.
                |TG-6th|Snooggums

                Just because everyone does something does not mean that it is right to do.

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                • #9
                  Re: Election Watch -- predictions, polls, and results

                  My Bad Kero,

                  Here this will make up for it. This is a link to the CNN Election Calculator:

                  http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

                  I ran through and this is my prediction:



                  The only one that was iffy for me was Indiana, but I figure since he will spend the day in Indiana (that helped Kerry in 2004) and it has heavy influence from the Strongly Obama Chicago Metropolitian Area in the North West corner of the state. Either way the 11 EC votes don't hold THAT strong a sway in my prediction.


                  PR Testing Team: Serious Business.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Election Watch -- predictions, polls, and results

                    Originally posted by El_Gringo_Grande View Post
                    What I found odd was that in Oklahoma City some of the polling places had really long lines. This in a state where the races are pretty much already decided.
                    What precinct are you Gringo? I was at 24 (Cleveland) and the line was two hours long :P
                    ~~ Veritas simplex oratio est ~~
                    No matter how far a wizard goes, he will always come back for his hat. --T. Pratchett

                    <---- You know you're getting old when you rely on your forum meta-data to remind you how old you are.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Election Watch -- predictions, polls, and results

                      Originally posted by DeePsix View Post
                      My Bad Kero,

                      Here this will make up for it. This is a link to the CNN Election Calculator:

                      http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

                      I ran through and this is my prediction:
                      [picture]
                      Thanks, thats perfect. :)

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Election Watch -- predictions, polls, and results

                        Originally posted by Rincewind View Post
                        I was at 24 and the line was two hours long :P
                        It took me 10 minutes from the time I walked in to the time I was done. Not too bad :D

                        I guess every state/county is different.....
                        |TG-X|Turkish

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Election Watch -- predictions, polls, and results

                          I predict the following


                          Iím not racists, I have republican friends. Radio show host.
                          - "The essence of tyranny is the denial of complexity". -Jacob Burkhardt
                          - "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" - Emerson
                          - "People should not be afraid of it's government, government should be afraid of it's People." - Line from V for Vendetta
                          - If software were as unreliable as economic theory, there wouldn't be a plane made of anything other than paper that could get off the ground. Jim Fawcette
                          - "Let me now state what seems to me the decisive objection to any conservatism which deserves to be called such. It is that by its very nature it cannot offer an alternative to the direction in which we are moving." -Friedrich Hayek
                          - "Don't waist your time on me your already the voice inside my head." Blink 182 to my wife

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Election Watch -- predictions, polls, and results

                            Originally posted by Rincewind View Post
                            What precinct are you Gringo? I was at 24 (Cleveland) and the line was two hours long :P
                            Good question. I just know it is the church up the street a ways. It is in Oklahoma county though. I drove by at 10 till seven and the line was out the door so I drove on by. That is crazy for this place. Every time I have voted before there might have been 10-15 people tops. Usually there is only the voter helper dudes and dudets there.

                            I plan on leaving work a bit early and seeing if the lines are shorter because my polling place is about an hour from where I work. Good excuse to get off early!

                            The way I figure it is there are a bunch of really angry Republicans voting or Obama is the anti-christ after all!
                            Iím not racists, I have republican friends. Radio show host.
                            - "The essence of tyranny is the denial of complexity". -Jacob Burkhardt
                            - "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" - Emerson
                            - "People should not be afraid of it's government, government should be afraid of it's People." - Line from V for Vendetta
                            - If software were as unreliable as economic theory, there wouldn't be a plane made of anything other than paper that could get off the ground. Jim Fawcette
                            - "Let me now state what seems to me the decisive objection to any conservatism which deserves to be called such. It is that by its very nature it cannot offer an alternative to the direction in which we are moving." -Friedrich Hayek
                            - "Don't waist your time on me your already the voice inside my head." Blink 182 to my wife

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Election Watch -- predictions, polls, and results

                              I predict that Barack Obama and the democratic party will get the mandate that Bush never really did. This is based on numerous impromptu discussions that I've had, witnesssed and read. People - democrats and republicans - are pissed and they are coming out in droves to say so. The fact that George Bush has been practically invisible recently is more proof that this is true.

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