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  • Unemployment perspective

    A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

    "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

  • #2
    Re: Unemployment perspective

    what is the y axis label? yes unemployment is getting bad, but i cant make much sense of this without knowing what the y axis means
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    . . . .

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    • #3
      Re: Unemployment perspective

      The vertical (y) axis shows percentage change in nonfarm employment. Up is good, down is bad.
      A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

      "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Unemployment perspective

        I heard Dvorak posit that some of the layoffs are opportunistic. They are getting rid of employees that they always really wanted to but didn't because they felt bad.

        That there are some employees that where not very good or caused some problems. But employers don't enjoy firing people so they didn't get rid of them. Now that the economy is bad they have an excuse so can get rid of them and not feel so bad.

        Interesting thought.
        Iím not racists, I have republican friends. Radio show host.
        - "The essence of tyranny is the denial of complexity". -Jacob Burkhardt
        - "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" - Emerson
        - "People should not be afraid of it's government, government should be afraid of it's People." - Line from V for Vendetta
        - If software were as unreliable as economic theory, there wouldn't be a plane made of anything other than paper that could get off the ground. Jim Fawcette
        - "Let me now state what seems to me the decisive objection to any conservatism which deserves to be called such. It is that by its very nature it cannot offer an alternative to the direction in which we are moving." -Friedrich Hayek
        - "Don't waist your time on me your already the voice inside my head." Blink 182 to my wife

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        • #5
          Re: Unemployment perspective

          So does that chart indicate that we are NOT in the worst times since the Great Depression, as the media would have you believe ?
          Instead it looks to be not as bad as when Jimmy Carter was President.
          What was the solution for our creeping malaise ?
          Ronald effen Reagan.
          Golly Gee I can't wait till 2010

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Unemployment perspective

            Originally posted by El_Gringo_Grande View Post
            I heard Dvorak posit that some of the layoffs are opportunistic. They are getting rid of employees that they always really wanted to but didn't because they felt bad.
            I know my wife's company did that. The people they laid off were the ones that weren't very good. And the company stock (non-public, but still) went up by 4%. Sure, not huge gains, but it didn't go DOWN. (granted, they design highways, bridges, stadiums, airports, etc.. civil engineering and architecture stuff)
            "Sympathy means a lot, coming from Kulmar. I didn't think it was possible.
            Good luck getting rid of your disease. If you're infected, though, stay away--I can't afford to be a zombie right now.
            " Ednos


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            • #7
              Re: Unemployment perspective

              Originally posted by Skylark View Post
              I know my wife's company did that. The people they laid off were the ones that weren't very good. And the company stock (non-public, but still) went up by 4%. Sure, not huge gains, but it didn't go DOWN. (granted, they design highways, bridges, stadiums, airports, etc.. civil engineering and architecture stuff)
              Some companies that's just smart business. Seasonal companies lay off a large percentage of their employees every winter and their stock price doesnt take those layoff's as a negative thing. Honestly there are very few cases where layoff's are reflected negatively in a companies stock pricing unless it's a precursor to other happenings.

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              • #8
                Re: Unemployment perspective

                But aren't most seasonal companies farm or farm related businesses ?
                The layoffs we have seen weren't the precursor they were the "postcursor(?) to the collapse of the company.

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                • #9
                  Re: Unemployment perspective

                  Originally posted by xTYBALTx View Post
                  The vertical (y) axis shows percentage change in nonfarm employment. Up is good, down is bad.
                  Hang on. If it's a change, then any positive value is good. So the rate of employment increase peaked at 1%, but it's still climbing, just not as fast.
                  Dude, seriously, WHAT handkerchief?

                  snooggums' density principal: "The more dense a population, the more dense a population."

                  Iliana: "You're a great friend but if we're ever chased by zombies I'm tripping you."

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                  • #10
                    Re: Unemployment perspective

                    Originally posted by KomradeObama View Post
                    But aren't most seasonal companies farm or farm related businesses ?
                    The layoffs we have seen weren't the precursor they were the "postcursor(?) to the collapse of the company.
                    I don't think that as is true today.

                    Construction, retail. tax preparation and others are also seasonal. Plus farms jobs represent a very small part of the total employment.
                    Iím not racists, I have republican friends. Radio show host.
                    - "The essence of tyranny is the denial of complexity". -Jacob Burkhardt
                    - "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" - Emerson
                    - "People should not be afraid of it's government, government should be afraid of it's People." - Line from V for Vendetta
                    - If software were as unreliable as economic theory, there wouldn't be a plane made of anything other than paper that could get off the ground. Jim Fawcette
                    - "Let me now state what seems to me the decisive objection to any conservatism which deserves to be called such. It is that by its very nature it cannot offer an alternative to the direction in which we are moving." -Friedrich Hayek
                    - "Don't waist your time on me your already the voice inside my head." Blink 182 to my wife

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Unemployment perspective

                      Originally posted by ScratchMonkey View Post
                      Hang on. If it's a change, then any positive value is good. So the rate of employment increase peaked at 1%, but it's still climbing, just not as fast.
                      Negative.

                      It charts the change from baseline - baseline being peak employment, represented by "1" on the chart. So any value above 1 is an increase from the peak, any value above 1 represents a decrease.
                      A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

                      "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Unemployment perspective

                        My brother told me some years ago the the unemployment stats are drawn from a 30 year old model and do not really give a good estimate of how many people do not have jobs in the whole country.
                        True ?
                        If so, how do we judge the percentage of unemployed people ?

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                        • #13
                          Re: Unemployment perspective

                          The current methodology has it's problems, but the purpose of these types of statistics is to provide an idea of the relative change over time. If unemployment is 7% now, was 4.5% in 2005 and was 10% in 1981, then it doesn't really matter whether our methodology is perfect so long as it's decent - because what we're interested in here is the relative change over time. We want to know whether it's harder to find a job now than it was in 2005, and how that stacks up to 1992, 1982, 1973, 1932, and well pretty much every other year.
                          A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

                          "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Unemployment perspective

                            Originally posted by xTYBALTx View Post
                            Negative.

                            It charts the change from baseline - baseline being peak employment, represented by "1" on the chart. So any value above 1 is an increase from the peak, any value above 1 represents a decrease.
                            Can you explain a bit more? I'm having trouble visualizing the equation that maps from percent unemployment to whatever this curve is. What is the X axis? (Since curves from different years are overlaid, it's not time, right?)
                            Dude, seriously, WHAT handkerchief?

                            snooggums' density principal: "The more dense a population, the more dense a population."

                            Iliana: "You're a great friend but if we're ever chased by zombies I'm tripping you."

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Unemployment perspective

                              X axis is time. Months after peak, as described on the chart. Y axis is percentage change in employment. Up is good, down is bad.
                              A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

                              "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

                              Comment

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