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  • Stock Market Perspective



    Comparing four "mega bear" markets:

    1929/Great Depression (DOW)
    1989/Japan's "Lost Decade" (Nikkei 225)
    2000 Tech Bubble (NASDAQ)
    2008-? (S&P500)
    A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

    "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

  • #2
    Re: Stock Market Perspective

    And graph #2, this one comparing the current market to the 2000-2002 Tech Bubble, 1973 Recession, and the Great Depression. First three bears are charted in the S&P500, the Great Depression is the DOW.

    A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

    "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Stock Market Perspective

      The current one looks scary, hopefully the stock market picks so the job market picks too and I can finally get hired :)

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Stock Market Perspective

        *Edit* Hey xTybaltx. What happens if you extend the Grey, Green and RED Graphs?
        Iím not racists, I have republican friends. Radio show host.
        - "The essence of tyranny is the denial of complexity". -Jacob Burkhardt
        - "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" - Emerson
        - "People should not be afraid of it's government, government should be afraid of it's People." - Line from V for Vendetta
        - If software were as unreliable as economic theory, there wouldn't be a plane made of anything other than paper that could get off the ground. Jim Fawcette
        - "Let me now state what seems to me the decisive objection to any conservatism which deserves to be called such. It is that by its very nature it cannot offer an alternative to the direction in which we are moving." -Friedrich Hayek
        - "Don't waist your time on me your already the voice inside my head." Blink 182 to my wife

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Stock Market Perspective

          Have a look for yourself.

          Yahoo! Finance
          A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

          "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Stock Market Perspective

            Originally posted by xTYBALTx View Post
            Have a look for yourself.

            Yahoo! Finance
            Nice graph. It looks like the dotcom idiots moved their effect into the housing market and recreated the same meteoric rise and fall. Where will they move their money next? Look out for another crash in 7 years.
            Dude, seriously, WHAT handkerchief?

            snooggums' density principal: "The more dense a population, the more dense a population."

            Iliana: "You're a great friend but if we're ever chased by zombies I'm tripping you."

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Stock Market Perspective

              The school loans and credit cards are ready to crumble now, according to "educated" sources.
              But it looks like we just barely passed two other bear markets on the down side but it is the depression that the pundits keep comparing this to and have been for months.

              It looks to me like we only passed them in the last month or so making liars out the people that said it hasn't been this bad since the Depression before that point.

              I think one huge difference is wider understanding of the problem and how bad it is when compared to the oil crisis or the tech crash.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Stock Market Perspective

                Originally posted by ScratchMonkey View Post
                Nice graph. It looks like the dotcom idiots moved their effect into the housing market and recreated the same meteoric rise and fall. Where will they move their money next? Look out for another crash in 7 years.

                We wont have recovered in 7 years time in order to crash again so you can discount that worry


                You can see in tybalts last link the double top formation or twin peaks mountain look to the graph, thats the dotcom and present decline.

                What a double top usually means is a continuing long term negative movement to the data shown. You can see this on a daily basis in graphs or in that case on a massive pan decade time frame showing a gigantic downturn that seems to confirm the bad news we're hearing

                http://www.trending123.com/patterns/double_top.html


                http://images.google.co.uk/images?q=...=1&sa=N&tab=wi






                This last prediction was made March 2008

                http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3935.html


                If you find yourself in a fair fight, then you have obviously failed to plan properly.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Stock Market Perspective

                  Originally posted by Sabre_Tooth_Tigger View Post
                  We wont have recovered in 7 years time in order to crash again so you can discount that worry


                  You can see in tybalts last link the double top formation or twin peaks mountain look to the graph, thats the dotcom and present decline.

                  What a double top usually means is a continuing long term negative movement to the data shown. You can see this on a daily basis in graphs or in that case on a massive pan decade time frame showing a gigantic downturn that seems to confirm the bad news we're hearing

                  http://www.trending123.com/patterns/double_top.html


                  http://images.google.co.uk/images?q=...=1&sa=N&tab=wi






                  This last prediction was made March 2008

                  http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3935.html
                  This is the thing I love about Social Sciences like Economics. They speak so authoritatively about something completely unpredictable.
                  Iím not racists, I have republican friends. Radio show host.
                  - "The essence of tyranny is the denial of complexity". -Jacob Burkhardt
                  - "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" - Emerson
                  - "People should not be afraid of it's government, government should be afraid of it's People." - Line from V for Vendetta
                  - If software were as unreliable as economic theory, there wouldn't be a plane made of anything other than paper that could get off the ground. Jim Fawcette
                  - "Let me now state what seems to me the decisive objection to any conservatism which deserves to be called such. It is that by its very nature it cannot offer an alternative to the direction in which we are moving." -Friedrich Hayek
                  - "Don't waist your time on me your already the voice inside my head." Blink 182 to my wife

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Stock Market Perspective

                    Sure it can be dismissed as just a guess but if more then one perspective agrees with a future negative outcome it becomes cause for concern

                    Also that last article is written 10 months ago and has since been proven true. The sp500 has now touched 741, but he wrote that when it was still at 1293.

                    On that scale its a massive prediction of course but this formation can be seen in tiny hourly graphs also and it acts in just the same way


                    If you find yourself in a fair fight, then you have obviously failed to plan properly.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Stock Market Perspective

                      Originally posted by El_Gringo_Grande View Post
                      This is the thing I love about Social Sciences like Economics. They speak so authoritatively about something completely unpredictable.
                      Technical analysis is not economics. Nor is it a social science. It's an investing technique.
                      A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

                      "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Stock Market Perspective

                        Originally posted by Sabre_Tooth_Tigger View Post
                        Sure it can be dismissed as just a guess but if more then one perspective agrees with a future negative outcome it becomes cause for concern

                        Also that last article is written 10 months ago and has since been proven true. The sp500 has now touched 741, but he wrote that when it was still at 1293.

                        On that scale its a massive prediction of course but this formation can be seen in tiny hourly graphs also and it acts in just the same way
                        In order for technical analysis to be valid, it must be right more often than chance. If 10,000 technical analysts make 10,000 predictions, and 100 of them are right, then that's not very impressive.

                        The mere fact that tens of thousands of technical analysts have widely varying predictions at the same time should be evidence that it is not an accurate predictive technique.
                        A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

                        "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Stock Market Perspective

                          I agree its not economics but it can be accurate depending on the skill and way its used. My point really is the multiple perspectives coinciding to predict future negatives. I certainly would consider technical analysis as one valid point of view

                          Often its a good idea to get the ground level view on a problem as well as this kind of abstract 'numbers is everything' idea and the middle ground would be looking at balance sheets and company prospects, etc

                          Combine them all and you'll increase the accuracy of your conclusions, just like a court hopefully relys on more then one witness for conviction


                          If you find yourself in a fair fight, then you have obviously failed to plan properly.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Stock Market Perspective

                            Originally posted by Sabre_Tooth_Tigger View Post
                            Sure it can be dismissed as just a guess but if more then one perspective agrees with a future negative outcome it becomes cause for concern

                            Also that last article is written 10 months ago and has since been proven true. The sp500 has now touched 741, but he wrote that when it was still at 1293.

                            On that scale its a massive prediction of course but this formation can be seen in tiny hourly graphs also and it acts in just the same way
                            But I have seen many other articles/stories from that time, and even today, that say wildly different things. For any happening, especially in the realm of predictions, you can go back and find somebody that was correct.

                            I am not totally dismissing Economics, or any Social Science, because it is important to try and understand and because they do contribute to our overall well being for what they do understand. The modern markets are hugely beneficial because of what they do know.

                            But most ignorant fools can often make predictions with the same accuracy as Economists. I thought the system was going to crash a couple of years ago just by watching all the home flipping shows on A&E/TLC/Discovery channels. You had complete novices with absolutely no capital getting half a million dollar loans to renovate a house. The houses they bought where often complete pieces of crap with 1,000 sq ft but cost $300k in neighborhoods full of people making $40K/year. They would then invest $30-70K and then sell the house for $500,000. And often the house just looked bad after the renovation. Who the hell bought that $500K house with 1,000 sq/ft that looked like a idiot renovated it?

                            Yet while all that was going on 90% of the economists didn't see any major problems. Wha, wha, wha!?!? Yea, a couple of people got it right but did they just get lucky? Was it a coincidence? A monkey gets it right every once in a while by throwing darts at a chart.

                            Maybe that graph pointed out in the article does actually mean something. Maybe it is a predictor of even worse things to come. But nobody knows, really.

                            I myself studied psychology and one of the few things that psychology tells us for certain is that human beings are very, very good at detecting patterns. So good that we often see patterns when none truly exist. Another one of the few things psychology tells us is that humans are not very good at really understanding what those patterns mean.

                            So, maybe that double peak is nothing but everybody starts to believe it is something and it becomes a self full-filling prediction. Everybody panics and so, predictably, the situation gets worse.

                            Or maybe that dip between 2000 and 2002 was caused in part by the World-Trade centers, two tremendously important buildings in the market world, being destroyed by terrorists and sending the world into a bit of a panic? (Not to mention the .com bubble bursting.)

                            The biggest problem with any long term prediction of human behavior is that knowledge of the prediction changes human behavior.
                            Iím not racists, I have republican friends. Radio show host.
                            - "The essence of tyranny is the denial of complexity". -Jacob Burkhardt
                            - "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" - Emerson
                            - "People should not be afraid of it's government, government should be afraid of it's People." - Line from V for Vendetta
                            - If software were as unreliable as economic theory, there wouldn't be a plane made of anything other than paper that could get off the ground. Jim Fawcette
                            - "Let me now state what seems to me the decisive objection to any conservatism which deserves to be called such. It is that by its very nature it cannot offer an alternative to the direction in which we are moving." -Friedrich Hayek
                            - "Don't waist your time on me your already the voice inside my head." Blink 182 to my wife

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Stock Market Perspective

                              I don't get it Gringo.

                              We already said that technical analysis is not economics. Nor is it a social science. It's an investing technique. It has nothing to do with economics.

                              Furthermore, economists who make predictions should be right no more than laymen. Why? Because predicting the actions of a complex system (such as... the world) is essentially impossible. So an expert should be right no more and no less than a laymen, who in turn should be right no more and no less than chance.
                              A policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy. -F.A. Hayek

                              "$250,000 a year won't get me to Central Park West."

                              Comment

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