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  • Speeders - Flawed study

    http://www.cnn.com/2003/TRAVEL/11/24/speed/index.html

    As you might have already guessed, I don't agree with this study. And I find it difficult to understand how they can report this as fact.

    Basically, they took information on how fast people drive and reported that since people are driving faster than the speed limit, speeding is the cause of the increase in accidents.

    Their conclusion leaves much to desire. For one thing, they never examined why the accident occurred. I would be willing to bet anyone that the biggest cause of accidents is not speeding, but driver inattention.

    And how can they draw a conclusion from point A (speeding) to increase in accidents if they don't tie the 2 in? That is like me doing a study comparing the frequency of date rape among women with different breast sizes and saying that getting breast implants will cause a woman to be raped in the future :?

  • #2
    Correlation does not equal causality. Send those flunkies back to junior high.
    "Hardly used" will not fetch a better price for your brain.

    Comment


    • #3
      Ok folks. No more bitching about Wyzcrak using big words, OK?!

      Thank you. :)

      Wyzcrak
      Steam Community? Add me. | Free Remote, Encrypted Backup

      Darkilla: In short, NS is pretty much really fast chess. With guns. Apophis: I haven't seen anyone say that SM's are better than non-SMs. Nordbomber: This is THE first server I've seen where either side can comeback from out of seemingly nowhere with the right teamwork. en4rcment: I have NEVER experienced the type of gameplay that I have found here. Nightly I am amazed at the personalities and gaming talent. Zephyr: Apophis is clearly a highly sophisticated self-aware AI construct that runs on a highly modified toaster oven in Wyzcrak's basement.

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      • #4
        Isn't it remarkable that drivers between 16 and 19 years old speed about 3 times as much as drivers 30 and older who have much more experience driving?
        (http://www.highwaysafety.org/safety_facts/qanda/speed_limits.htm#3)

        I saw no comment that the study madeabout speed causing more accidents . It says speed accounts for a greater number of fatal accidents.

        Regards,

        Leejo

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        • #5
          Originally posted by leejo
          I saw no comment that the study madeabout speed causing more accidents . It says speed accounts for a greater number of fatal accidents.
          Uggg, that is what I get for reading CNN before I get my morning shot of caffine. Nice catch there. :P

          Still, the principle of my arguement still stands. They did not research what caused the increase in deaths. They just looked at 2 trends and tried to tie them together without showing a direct link betweeh the 2.

          Also, was speeding the direct cause of someone dieing or was it because the driver had a bad driving habit (i.e. not paying attention to the road, swerving through lanes of traffic, tailgating) that caused the accident and the faster speed made the accident worse than at slower speeds? That is the question that should be asked.

          Take myself for example. I am known to have a lead foot. However, I am very alert when I am driving. Speeding is not causing me to have any accidents.

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          • #6
            If leejo's point is correct, then your pointing out that your lead foot is not the cause of the accident is moot. Is the article saying that the speed simply increased the frequency of fatalities among accidents (as opposed to increasing the frequency of accidents)?

            Wyzcrak
            Steam Community? Add me. | Free Remote, Encrypted Backup

            Darkilla: In short, NS is pretty much really fast chess. With guns. Apophis: I haven't seen anyone say that SM's are better than non-SMs. Nordbomber: This is THE first server I've seen where either side can comeback from out of seemingly nowhere with the right teamwork. en4rcment: I have NEVER experienced the type of gameplay that I have found here. Nightly I am amazed at the personalities and gaming talent. Zephyr: Apophis is clearly a highly sophisticated self-aware AI construct that runs on a highly modified toaster oven in Wyzcrak's basement.

            Comment


            • #7
              Well I tend to have a slightly heavy foot and it hasn't caused any accidents either. However, at 42k traffic fatalities a year, they have a pretty good statistical sample to work with. Careless, not careless, and so on, these factors tend to even out in a sample size that large.

              Hit a telephone pole at 30 mph or hit a telephone at 75 mph. Roll a car at 30 and roll one at 75. Of COURSE speed contributes to fatal traffic accidents. It seems obvious to me and I can't see the point of arguing that point. To me, a much more interesting question is what correlation is there between speed and these other unsafe behaviors you've described above. My hunch is that there's a pretty good correlation. In other words, people who speed do other unsafe things like swerving through lanes of traffic and tailgating more often that people who do not speed. Especially when one considers that people who speed are 3 times more likely to be young, inexperienced, male drivers. God help us all... ;)

              leejo

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              • #8
                Originally posted by leejo
                To me, a much more interesting question is what correlation is there between speed and these other unsafe behaviors you've described above. My hunch is that there's a pretty good correlation. In other words, people who speed do other unsafe things like swerving through lanes of traffic and tailgating more often that people who do not speed.
                Actually, I don't believe that speeders necessary have a worse (as in they are more likely to..) correlation to having bad driving habits compare to those that drive the speed limit. I see plenty of examples every day driving and a majority of them are not speeding. For example, someone pulling into the flow of traffic in front of a car and the car having to slam on their brakes to avoid hitting them. Or switching lanes without checking the lane next to you (come on, how hard is it to glance to the side and check? If I am right next to your door, you should be able to see me if you only would pay attention to the road).

                Now granted, I have also seen some great examples of people speeding and having unsafe driving habits. I recently had someone traveling in the slow lane at a speed faster than me (I was going somewhat faster than the speed limit at the time), quickly close the gap between them and the slower traffic in the lane, then swerve into the lane right in front of me, ignoring the fact that the clearance between my car and the car in their lane was less than the length of their vehicle. It was exciting to say the least watching the driver in the van swerving out of control in front of me after pulling that stunt.

                I guess my biggest beef is that cops nowadays spend too much time behind radar guns trying to pull over speeders while they seem to let much worse driving habits occur. I don't know how many times I seen someone tailgating another vehicle and a cop observing the whole thing and not doing anything about it, or a cop observing someone turning into the flow of traffic and causing the car behind them to hit their brakes hard.
                I mean it is only fair if I am going to be pulled over for going 20 miles an hour above the speed limit on a highway that is straight, I can see for miles ahead of me, no other traffic, and visibility is great. If "I" am a threat to safety on the road, why won't they do something about these other drivers out there?

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                • #9
                  Slightly off-topic, but here's some fun math:
                  10 mile trip, 35 mph = 17.14 minutes
                  10 mile trip, 45 mph = 13.33 minutes
                  (making the extremely generous assumption that you get the full gain from that extra speed, instead of, say, simply reaching the same red light sooner than the other guy)

                  Is speeding worth the risk to save less than 4 minutes? How many minutes will you waste looking for a parking spot when you get to said destination? Heck, on the 180 mile trip I'll be making Thursday, I'd optimally save only 25 minutes by going 70 instead of 60. I think I can spare half an hour of my life to not risk a ticket, and to have a much shorter stopping distance should a deer decide to stare me down. :)

                  Everyone's in a rat race these days. Buy a Harley. Cruise around town at low speeds. Waste time. Relax :)
                  "Hardly used" will not fetch a better price for your brain.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by leejo
                    Especially when one considers that people who speed are 3 times more likely to be young, inexperienced, male drivers. God help us all... ;)
                    I disagree with this statement, no matter what statistics say :) In highschool, the number or girls who had accidents compared to the guys was at least 2:1

                    And just about every woman driver I know speeds. And road rage? My god.... Cut infront of her while she's curling her hair, and they would make a sailor blush....
                    I am the one, I am the zero, I am your low resolution hero.

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                    • #11
                      I dont really think speeding is that big of a thing because we all speed every once in awhile. My beef is with these *******s who use their cell phone while driving. At least with speeding you're paying attention to the road, you're not paying attention to the road while yelling at your wife on your cell phone.

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                      • #12
                        Is your objection to someone holding a phone call while driving, or is your objection to someone holding a phone while driving?

                        Or both?

                        Wyzcrak
                        Steam Community? Add me. | Free Remote, Encrypted Backup

                        Darkilla: In short, NS is pretty much really fast chess. With guns. Apophis: I haven't seen anyone say that SM's are better than non-SMs. Nordbomber: This is THE first server I've seen where either side can comeback from out of seemingly nowhere with the right teamwork. en4rcment: I have NEVER experienced the type of gameplay that I have found here. Nightly I am amazed at the personalities and gaming talent. Zephyr: Apophis is clearly a highly sophisticated self-aware AI construct that runs on a highly modified toaster oven in Wyzcrak's basement.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Both. You need to pay attention to the road, not make a play date.

                          If the phone call is that important too you either wait until you get home or pull off to the side of the road.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Is there any other self-distracting activity you're aware of drivers doing that equally offends you?

                            Wyzcrak
                            Steam Community? Add me. | Free Remote, Encrypted Backup

                            Darkilla: In short, NS is pretty much really fast chess. With guns. Apophis: I haven't seen anyone say that SM's are better than non-SMs. Nordbomber: This is THE first server I've seen where either side can comeback from out of seemingly nowhere with the right teamwork. en4rcment: I have NEVER experienced the type of gameplay that I have found here. Nightly I am amazed at the personalities and gaming talent. Zephyr: Apophis is clearly a highly sophisticated self-aware AI construct that runs on a highly modified toaster oven in Wyzcrak's basement.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Great example of excessive phone usage: I'm rolling down a residential road, and watch a girl exit a house, enter her vehicle, and nearly hit me backing out of her driveway. How'd she manage that? In the short time it took to start her car, engage reverse, and begin to move, she'd dialed her phone and plastered it to her ear. Honey, why not make that call before you start driving, or before even leaving the house?

                              I don't specifically mind people using the phone while driving. I think shaving and doing makeup are greater risks (and I've seen these multiple times!), but there are those who can't even drink a soda or operate the radio without swerving all over the road. More of a crappy-driver problem than a distraction one, I would think. If you can't sip a soda while steering, I don't expect you to be able to track multiple vehicles, read road signs, or even notice pedestrians while driving either.
                              "Hardly used" will not fetch a better price for your brain.

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